Printer-friendly

Contact Author

July 31, 2004

Prospectus Today

Passing Judgment

by Joe Sheehan

Around 3 p.m. PDT yesterday, it looked like I was going to have to squeeze a thousand words out of Brad Fullmer being traded to the Padres. Fortunately, the word got out about some sort of upcoming deadline, which spurred a number of teams into action.

The big story…well, the big story hasn't been finalized yet. The biggest trade on Friday occurred between the Marlins and Dodgers, a six-player swap that the Dodgers hope will enable them to acquire Randy Johnson from the Diamondbacks using two of the players they picked up from the Fish.

The focus on what might happen has obscured what did happen: Paul DePodesta made a hell of a trade. Getting Hee Seop Choi, who immediately becomes the best Dodger hitter since Gary Sheffield, makes DePo the big winner (although not the day's biggest winner). Brad Penny is an upgrade, so even if the Dodgers can't flip him for the Big Unit, they've improved their rotation. Left-hander Billy Murphy has a live arm and considerable trade value, although his major-league future isn't assured.

The Dodgers just didn't give up that much. Juan Encarnacion is a stiff who never should have been signed. He and his .300 OBP will be a big letdown for the Marlins, who opened a big hole in their lineup with this deal. Guillermo Mota has been a lights-out set-up man for nearly two seasons now; he's also 31, on the brink of becoming expensive, and has quietly shown signs of fatigue. All of his peripherals are down from last season, and his in-season trends are downward--less command and power as the season has progressed. I think DePodesta traded him at just the right time, and if the Dodgers fill part of the hole they created by using Eric Gagne more aggressively, they won't notice any difference.

Losing LoDuca is harder to wave off, although the acquisition of Charles Johnson would mean that the real cost is more financial than anything else. As good as LoDuca has been this season, he's not an impact player. Most of his value is in his batting average, which in most seasons isn't high enough to make him a star. More significantly, Lo Duca was an awful player after the All-Star break in both '02 and '03. His first-half/second-half splits reveal a player who cannot hold up over a full season, and so far in '04, he'd been struggling since the mid-season classic (.222/.327/.333). Clubhouse issues-which can and will be ameliorated by the next three-game winning streak-aside, I think it's possible that the Dodgers are better off today at catcher than they were yesterday.

Paul DePodesta swapped two players near the peak of their value just in time, and he brought in one undervalued player with massive upside. You just can't do it any better than that.