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August 25, 2017

Fantasy Freestyle

Find Your Process

by Mike Gianella


I live in a Philadelphia suburb, so for years I have heard the words “trust the process” repeated ad infinitum. This pertains to , of course, and the multi-year rebuilding plan engineered by former general manager Sam Hinkie. We don’t often think of it in these terms, but in fantasy baseball we too should be guided by a process. However, I often find that too many of us are not, instead chasing the latest trend or wasting our time studying information that is not particularly useful.

Below is a brief guide of what we should and shouldn’t be focusing on when making decisions that impact our teams, both in redraft and keeper leagues.

Wrong—Trying to identify trends based on the most recent draft
This is a frequent practice, most commonly when analysts attempt to look retrospectively at draft results. “Elite starting pitchers are more/less reliable this year” is a popular claim that makes the rounds nearly every season, and is once again circulating this August. Trends around any group of players seldom move as much as we perceive they do. To use the starting pitcher example above, in 2017, 11 of the top 25 drafted pitchers in NFBC are currently in the Top 25 overall. In 2016, it was 12. Positive or poor results for one team in a league (often yours) are frequently conflated with a “trend” when there is no “there” there. This commonly happens with relief pitchers as well. You might dislike purchasing relievers, but their rate of success/failure generally stays the same.

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Related Content:  Fantasy,  Trends,  Advice,  Strategy,  Expert,  Wisdom

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<< Previous Article
Let It Eat: Bad Breaks (08/24)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: The... (08/17)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Fantasy Freestyle: How... (08/25)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Minor League Update: G... (08/25)

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