CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe
<< Previous Article
Long Relief: The Baseb... (06/15)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: The... (06/15)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: The... (06/19)
Next Article >>
What You Need to Know:... (06/16)

June 16, 2017

Fantasy Freestyle

Fighting The Last War

by Scooter Hotz


There’s an old saying that “generals always fight the last war.” The origin of the saying is unclear, but the idea behind it is not. During their current engagements, people tend to do the things that has worked well and avoid the things that didn’t work well during their previous engagement, rather than choose their course of action based on the current circumstances. And it’s not limited to war—a variation on the statement insists that “economists always fight the last depression.”

In my deep AL-only league keeper league, I’ve had the same issue the past few times I’ve had a contending team. I didn’t trade away my prospects and/or cheep keepers to the teams that dumped early because I didn’t like the prices I was paying. Each time, I felt like the contenders who made those deals overpaid and that I would overtake them when I made subsequent deals at better exchange rates. Each time, I was wrong.

A few things caused problems for me in these scenarios:

• There’s no guarantee that any other teams will dump. Sometimes there is no “next” deal to make.

• There’s no guarantee that teams that end up dumping have assets as good as the ones the first dumpers offer.

• There’s no guarantee the later dumpers won’t hold out for the same exchange rate that the early dumpers got, even to their own disadvantage.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Related Content:  Fantasy,  Strategy,  Tactics,  Repeating Mistakes,  Be Bold

4 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Long Relief: The Baseb... (06/15)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: The... (06/15)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: The... (06/19)
Next Article >>
What You Need to Know:... (06/16)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Rubbing Mud: Lineups Are Just a Social Const...
Fantasy Article Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 20
Premium Article Weekly Wrap: August 18, 2017
Banjo Hitter: The First 162: Alex Bregman
Premium Article Guarding The Lines: Here The Fastball Are No...
Cold Takes: Doomed and Determined
Circle Change: The Best Failure in Baseball

MORE FROM JUNE 16, 2017
Premium Article Weekly Wrap: June 16, 2017
What You Need to Know: All Sales Are Final
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of June 15
Fantasy Article Free Agent Watch: Week 11
Fantasy Article Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 12
BP Kansas City
BP Boston

MORE BY SCOOTER HOTZ
2017-06-28 - Premium Article The Call-Up: Tyler Wade
2017-06-28 - Fantasy Article Deep League Report: Week 13
2017-06-21 - Fantasy Article Deep League Report: Week 12
2017-06-16 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Fighting The Last War
2017-06-14 - Fantasy Article Deep League Report: Week 11
2017-06-07 - Fantasy Article Deep League Report: Week 10
2017-05-31 - Fantasy Article Updating the Tiers: Second Base
More...

MORE FANTASY FREESTYLE
2017-06-22 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: The Art of the Deal: Tran...
2017-06-21 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Alex Wood: Elite Fantasy ...
2017-06-19 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: The Evolution and Decline...
2017-06-16 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Fighting The Last War
2017-06-15 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: The Pitching Landscape Ha...
2017-06-14 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Stash List Supplemental
2017-06-12 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: David Price: Checking In
More...