June 14, 2017
No Free Strikes
We are, inarguably, living in the Golden Age Of Offensive Platitudes. Russell A. Carleton tossed out several of them in one recent column: “Sit fastball. Swing hard. Strikeouts don’t matter.” The Pirates say “OPS is in the air,” which is really just the Cubs’ “there’s no slug on the ground,” but stood on its head. Josh Donaldson wants you to “just say no to ground balls,” which is unimaginative but clear enough.
Modern offense comes down to launch angle and exit velocity, and to maximizing extra-base power (especially home runs) in order to make up for an unabating upshoot in strikeout rate. To be a great hitter in the modern game is nowhere near easy, but it’s fairly simple. Most teams, and many individual players, have dedicated themselves to breaking down hitting to the simplest set of basic ideas possible, so that batters can adapt to the unprecedented velocity and sheer stuff of modern pitchers as deftly as possible.
I said modern offense is about launch angle and exit velocity, but of course, there’s another dimension to be considered. A number of players who have always had the ability to hit the ball hard and get it elevated are enjoying breakout campaigns, and it’s not because they’re suddenly hitting it harder or higher. Rather, it’s because they’re hewing to another bromide, one I haven’t seen mentioned often so far. Here it is: No. Free. Strikes.
Take Twins slugger Miguel Sano, for instance. He had a dazzling rookie season in 2015, but went backward last year. He’s the very model of the modern masher—strikeout-prone, with a grooved swing that doesn’t give him much chance to make solid contact on pitchers’ pitches, but patient and extraordinarily powerful. As pitchers got their second and third looks at him, they found that they could use his patience against him.
A bit over 46.6 percent of the pitches Sano saw in 2016 were in the strike zone—on par with the zone rate for Howie Kendrick. Over 30 percent of the strikes on Sano prior to this season were called. He swung at the first pitch less than a quarter of the time, and pitchers knew it, so over half his plate appearances began 0-1. Sano’s OPS after that start to at-bats was .558. He swung at just over 60 percent of pitches in the zone, and it left him in bad counts all the time.
This season, Sano has swung at the first pitch nearly 40 percent of the time. He’s offered at 73 percent of all pitches he’s seen within the zone. He’s traded a very little bit of contact for that extra plate coverage and aggressiveness, but because he hits the ball so hard when he connects, the tradeoff has been more than worth it. Moreover, pitchers have quickly come to realize that they can’t ever throw him a strike without fear of having a ball hit 112 miles per hour past their ear.