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July 16, 2004

Prospectus Today

NL Mid-Season Report Card

by Joe Sheehan

Yesterday I looked at American League teams' year-to-date performance, and their outlook for the second half. Today, let's look in on the senior circuit...

NL EAST

The Phillies are the best team on paper, but the worst of the contenders based on their underlying performance so far this year. The Mets and Braves, thought to be running on the fumes of recent contenders and making the transition to new eras, have been the best teams in the division per the Adjusted Standings Report, while the Phils and Marlins have come in behind them.

Separated by two games entering the All-Star break, there's not much to choose from among these squads. They could end up giving us the most entertaining race in baseball this year, not because they're all good, but because they're all flawed. The Phils have rotation issues and a combustible manager who has already banished his best center fielder to the minors. The Mets have serious OBP questions outside of their lineup core, along with a rotation that is old, not big on missing bats, and likely to regress down the stretch after pitching out of their minds in the first half. The Marlins are finding out what happens when the top of their order is just a little bit worse. The Braves have just hung around long enough to get Marcus Giles back and Rafael Furcal back in business.

The Mets and Phillies are the teams most likely to improve via the trade market, as both have sufficient cash reserves and prospects to deal, the Mets more than the Phils. Even having added Richard Hidalgo, the Mets can still improve their offense. On any given day, four Mets starters have below-average OBPs, and Kazuo Matsui is barely average. A good-hitting first baseman could be an offensive upgrade over Jason Phillips and Vance Wilson, with Mike Piazza going back behind the plate full-time. Even someone like Tino Martinez would be an asset, although you'd hope for Carlos Delgado, or even Matt Stairs.

The Phils need a starting pitcher to replace Vicente Padilla. Paul Abbott isn't a solution, although given the trade options, using in-house guys like Geoff Geary might be better than trading talent for Kris Benson or someone who looks like him. With Larry Bowa having banished Marlon Byrd to Triple-A, the Phils are giving away runs on both sides of the ball. A platoon of Ricky Ledee and Jason Michaels in Byrd's stead could have produced some nice offensive numbers, though it would have been lacking on defense. Ledee made it back from the DL last week, only to have Michaels come up lame with hamstring problems. The result has been too much (read: more than zero) playing time for Doug Glanville.