Chicago White Sox
- Don’t Let the Door Hit You: The White Sox have finally seen
the
light. The much maligned Billy Koch was dealt to the
Marlins last week for Wilson Valdez who, for the purposes of the deal,
may
as well have been a bag of baseballs. Never an organization to stray
too
far from the mainstream, though, the Sox quickly announced that
Shingo Takatsu has been named the new closer.After allowing three runs in his first three innings of work,
Takatsu
hasn’t allowed a run since. It’s interesting, though, that the White
Sox
didn’t choose to promote Damaso Marte who’s in his
third
year with the team and is again putting together a very good season.
Especially with a player’s manager like Ozzie Guillen, service time
seemed
like it would be the main factor in determining Koch’s replacement.
The
only blemishes on Marte’s record are four blown saves, the last of
which
came over a month ago, and while he hasn’t been quite as good as
Takatsu so far this season, he
has the longer-term track record in Chicago of top performances.This is not to say that Takatsu doesn’t deserve the job. He’s the
career
saves leader in Japan, and his performance thus far more than validates
his
talent. However, the question remains what the White Sox will do when
he
finally slumps for a period. His role is not yet established, and if
his
slump comes sooner rather than later, the White Sox pen could be thrown
into
flux again.While the closer role may be the most overrated in
baseball,
having established patterns of use may not be. Knowing when to warm
up, how
much, and having set days off would certainly seem to increase the
chances
of most relievers performing their best and, should the Sox make
another
change or waver between Marte and Takatsu, the pen as a whole could
suffer.As it is now, though, GM Kenny Williams deserves applause for finding
the
sucker in the room who decided to look too long at Koch’s save totals
and,
amazingly, agreed to pay his salary. By removing Koch and his -5.1
ARP, the
Sox bullpen immediately looks much better from top to bottom. Now
if
they could just figure out where to put Cliff Politte,
things would be even better. -
Incoming: The Sox seemed mainly in the market for pitching at
this
year’s draft, taking only three position players in their first 12
picks. Despite that preference, they first tapped Oklahoma State
third baseman Josh Fields. Fields hit .352/.465/.580, with 32 out of his
88
hits going for extra bases this year. He showed a marked improvement
in
plate discipline with a 45/47 K/BB ratio, after a mediocre
46/24
mark in 2003. Having already signed, Fields will likely move quickly
to
short-season ball to start his way up the Sox ladder.After Fields, the Sox selected Tyler Lumsden, a left-hander out of
Clemson. With 88 Ks in 81.1 IP this year, Lumsden certainly has the
stuff
that we like here at BP, but he’s also prone to wildness, walking 37
this
year. He posted nearly the exact same line in 2003 with a 72/31 K/BB
ratio
in 86 IP.Immediately after Lumsden, the White Sox took high school
pitcher
Giovany Gonzalez. There’s little information available on Gonzalez
other
than the fact that he’s a moderately hard-throwing, left-handed high
school
pitcher. Those last three words should tell you all you need to know
about his risk factor. With the pendulum swinging towards the safer
bets of
college pitchers lately, though, taking a flier in the supplemental
round
may be just the right kind of calculated risk that takes advantage of
the
market.
Oakland
Athletics
- White Knuckles: No matter how you look at it, the A’s bullpen
has
been downright awful this year. They’re 24th in the league in ERA,
sporting
14 losses against only 13 saves. BP’s Reliever
Statistics rank the Oakland firemen as the eighth-worst in the majors.
Even worse, nearly every reliever posts a negative Adjusted Runs
Prevented
(ARP) which means that the A’s can’t even cut a few bad apples from the
tree. Only Justin Duchscherer, at 6.8, has pitched
anywhere close to respectably. The only other hurlers to post positive
numbers are Chad Harville, who was released and signed
by
Houston, and the newly recalled Justin Lehr, who’s
pitched
one scoreless inning.This situation is not one to which A’s faithful are accustomed.
Ranking
sixth, 15th, and second the last three years, the sight of a
reliever (other than a notable exception
or two)
hasn’t been cause for great concern in the East Bay. Now, it seems,
starter’s pitch counts are watched with more dread than before, and the sight
of any movement in the rickety excuse for a bench down the left-field line is
enough to send people screaming for the exits.Looking at the core of the Oakland pen’s performance over the past few
seasons (as measured by ARP) yields the following:Player 2003 2002 2001 Arthur Rhodes 5.1 14.4 23.9 Jim Mecir -2.2 6.3 5.9 Ricardo Rincon 6.6 9.5 15.8 Chad Bradford 17.3 9.4 1.7 Chris Hammond 9.9 26.2 DNP
(Duchscherer, having been a starter until this season, has been
excluded.) With the exception of Chad Bradford, this
looks
like a group stuck in a steep decline. Also with the exception of
Bradford,
this is a group of old players; Arthur Rhodes,
Ricardo Rincon, and Jim Mecir are all
34,
while Chris Hammond is 38.All that said, this isn’t necessarily a call to blow up the pen and
start
over. Bradford has been one of the best in the league at stranding
inherited runners for the past few seasons, and there’s little reason to
think that this is more than a slight bump in the road. Hammond’s so
far
down the depth chart that there’s little value in trying to upgrade
there.
Duchscherer has been performing well and hopefully will be given more
high-leverage innings.The rest of the pen may need some help, though. Here’s a look at the list of suspects:
-
After performing at a consistently high level in Seattle in 2001 and
2002, Rhodes showed a slight decline in K/9 and a jump in BB/9 and H/9
last
year, none of which bode well for future performance. Before arriving
in
Seattle in 2000, Rhodes was an average reliever who showed consistent,
excellent strikeout numbers, but was consistently undone by his
wildness. In fact, his ERA could be tied almost exactly to his BB/9. How
closely?
The correlation is .771 (on a 0 to 1 scale, the higher the number, the
better the correlation). So far this year, his BB/9 is 5.1,
correlating to
an ERA of 6.23. If he can get his walks down, he could come around,
but
until then, he doesn’t look like a good bet to reach his 2001-2002
levels
again. He still has a place in the A’s bullpen, but the contract the
A’s gave him after Keith Foulke departed for Boston is looking worse
and
worse. -
Rincon has been on a slide for the past three seasons, and he’s
quickly
becoming one of those fungible lefty relievers who always seem to find a
job.
There are other quality options freely available, and it may be time to
wish
Rincon the best of luck and send him on his way. -
The A’s have publicly stated that Mecir, when healthy, is a quality
reliever. There’s little argument against that, but the problem is
that
Mecir just isn’t healthy and hasn’t appeared so in quite some time.
After
spending significant time on the disabled list last season, Mecir has
avoided it so far this year. But with the A’s refusal to leak medical
information, it’s nearly impossible to get a qualified opinion on his
state
of health. He got off to a good start this season, but he’s been
terrible
lately and, with a player whose performance is tied so
closely to
his health, it seems likely there’s an injury in play. Even without
the
rumor and speculation, Mecir hasn’t shown that he can do the job, and
the A’s
would be best off moving him at this point, especially with fellow
right-hander Duchscherer’s performance record.
-
After performing at a consistently high level in Seattle in 2001 and
Philadelphia Phillies
-
Double Standard: Sunday night, the Phillies sent center fielder
Marlon Byrd down to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Manager
Larry
Bowa cited Byrd’s 45 strikeouts as the main reason that the club
decided to
move Byrd for the time being, but it’s pretty certain that his
224/.297/.304 line wasn’t making much of a case to keep him either. It
seems certain that Byrd will be back up with the club soon, but, on the
surface, this seems to be a highly questionable decision, mostly
because
there isn’t a clear goal for Byrd while he’s in Triple-A other than to
“get
out of the slump.”Of course, one of the more famous slumps in recent memory was
Pat
Burrell‘s lost 2003. Hitting just .209/.309/.404 for the
season,
Burrell suffered through one of the most unexpected slumps of last
year, all
while striking out 142 times. Of course, Burrell wasn’t sent down to
the
minors to tinker with his swing like Byrd was. Whether or not the
Phillies are basing their decision to move Byrd on the fact that
Burrell
never really recovered in 2003 is unclear, but referencing the
strikeouts as
a justification for sending down their center fielder is just wrong.Strikeouts, as a game event, don’t cost a team significantly more
runs
than any other occurrence. They can, however, for certain types of players,
be
an omen that their skills are degrading. Given how much the other
Philly
batters strike out, we must assume that Bowa was leaning towards the
latter
line of reasoning when using the whiffs as the validation.The only
problem
here is that Byrd isn’t striking out terribly more than he always has.
The
last three years, Byrd has struck out in 17.0%, 17.1%, and 17.2% of plate appearances, the
last
two in the minors. This year it’s 19.0%. While that’s not an
insignificant
amount, it’s more than likely just a blip on the learning curve; it’s
certainly no reason for demotion.His early going this year notwithstanding, Byrd is a competent major league player and, at 26, still has plenty of
room
for improvement. Philly faithful will have to hope that he sorts
himself
out quickly in Triple-A, because the longer the slump continues in the
minors, the harder it will be for Byrd to earn his way back to a spot
that
is rightfully his. Taking playing time away from a young player with a
track
record of success in the middle of a pennant race is exactly the type
of
move that could be looked back on as justification for why the Phillies
have
yet to live up to their preseason hype.Bowa can at least make the best of the situation by platooning the capable Ricky Ledee with the also capable Jason Michaels. If Doug Glanville starts getting significant playing time, better hide the batteries from Phils Phans.
-
Gone Fishin’: With 20 games to go until the All-Star break,
the
Phillies have finally climbed back into a tie with the Marlins for the
lead
in the NL East. With seven games against the Expos as well as four and
three against the Mets and Braves, respectively, the Phillies have an opportunity to turn the NL East into the two-team race that’s been hinted at
lately. If they can run away and hide with Florida, they’ll have a
good
chance to take advantage of the 12 games against the Marlins in the
second
half to make the push for the division.Of course, all this assumes that the Phils can turn around a few
slow
starts, such as Kevin Millwood‘s and Byrd’s, and return to
the
favored status they enjoyed after a solid off-season, highlighted by the
acquisition of closer Billy Wagner. For now, though,
the
Phillies should consider themselves uniquely lucky to find themselves
as
high in the standings as they are.While other teams like the Reds, Twins, and Giants
have
all exceeded their expected records by a greater amount, the Phillies
have
shown the greatest discrepancy between their first-order winning
percentage
(based on their actual runs scored and allowed) and their third-order
percentage (based on their adjusted equivalent run differential).
Simply
put, while the Phillies don’t appear lucky based on the comparison
between
their record and run differential, they have been scoring more runs
than
they should given their individual statistics. However, lucky wins
count
just as much as deserved ones, and Philadelphia is as good a bet as any
to
take advantage in the next month or two.
Thank you for reading
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