December 1, 1997
One Man's Take on the Blue Jays
This week, we're joined by Daniel Rotenberg, who contribued this piece
on the Toronto Blue Jays. We hope you enjoy it. Our thanks to Daniel
for his work.
In 1997, the Toronto Blue Jays were last in the AL in runs, walks, batting
average, and on-base percentage. They were below average or far below
average offensively at every position, with the clear exception of Carlos
, their best offensive player. Their best defensive player
was probably Alex Gonzalez
, and he was not Gold Glove material at short. Led
by the incredible Roger Clemens
, pitching was clearly the team's strength
(third in ERA in the AL).
Despite another losing season, the good news is that the Jays have a core of
young, talented regulars in Delgado, Jose Cruz
(and to a lesser extent, Shawn Green
Gonzalez). The last two Cy Young winners
will start ~40% of the Jays games in '98. Whether the team will contend soon
depends on General Manager Gord Ash's
moves this winter and whether their
touted prospects develop into stars. Specifically, the Jays need a second
baseman, a catcher, and DH or firstbaseman (wherever Delgado isn't), Green and
Gonzalez must improve substantially, Juan Guzman
must return to health, Tom Evans
, and Cruz, Stewart, and Kelvim Escobar
must play as
well as they did in their first months.
Let The Bad Times Roll
The Blue Jays are in unfamiliar territory. After eleven years of winning
records, they have had four consecutive losing seasons. Losing is not the
unfamiliar part; they did that during their first six years. Now, for the
first time in Blue Jays history, the management talked about fielding a
contender, and failed to do so.
The Blue Jays are currently building what amounts to only their third team
in their 21-year history. After the championship years, the 1994 team was
floundering under the .500 mark when that season came to an early end. This
third team began to take shape in 1995. Devon White
, Robby Alomar
and Paul Molitor
were in the
last year of their contracts and were not expected to be re-signed. Green,
Gonzalez, and Delgado were the heralded rookies. Pat Hentgen, Mike Timlin
, Derek Bell
and Ed Sprague
were expected to take over leading
roles. Three years later, the fans are still waiting for a competitive team.
What has gone wrong?
The Jays' downfall can be easily traced. There are three basic elements to
a team: ownership, management, and players. The Jays have simultaneously
suffered blows in all three. First, new owners cut the payroll and put the
team on the market. After the 1996 season, the payroll was returned to its
previous, higher levels, and the team was finally taken off the market in late
1997. It now appears that the franchise can count on a stable ownership
situation once again. Second and most important by far, Pat Gillick
Gord Ash took over, and Cito Gaston
remained the manager. Third, the free agent
losses were not replaced as the prospects have not developed as expected.
It is my opinion that Ash and Gaston are the biggest reasons for the Jays'
downfall. (However, if the kids do not develop into solid major leaguers
soon, Gaston may get off the hook.) When White, Alomar, and Molitor left as
free agents after 1995, Ash had to rebuild. He apparently forgot to inform
Gaston, who kept playing the veterans instead of their prospects. Let us call
this Major Mistake #1. Ash then decided that one year of so-called rebuilding
was sufficient, and he brought in even more veterans with the stated intent of
contending immediately. These are Major Mistakes #2 and #3: one year was not
enough, and Ash continued to add second-rate players.
Manager Cito Gaston
Going back one year, the Blue Jays had entered the 1996 season hoping that a
number of young position players would be able to establish themselves by
summer's end: Delgado, Green, Gonzalez, Stewart, Tomas
and Robert Perez
. Thanks to Cito Gaston's unwillingness to play young players,
, Charlie O'Brien
, Otis Nixon
, and even Joe Carter
playing time than they should have, at the expense of the kids. By the end
of 1996, only Delgado and Green had proved that they could hit at a major
league level - and they were still being platooned - and Gonzalez was the
only regular. Slowed by an injury, Stewart was kept in the minors, while
Martinez showed that he could not hit. But when Robert Perez hit well right
from the start (.320 in all), Gaston still kept him on the bench, mostly in
favor of the older Brumfield. Why? Why not let Perez show whether he was a
major league hitter? No harm would have resulted to what was clearly not a
contending team. Although Perez has since proven that he is not much of a
hitter, he was one blatant example of Gaston's unwillingness to give unproven
players a chance to play.
Gaston has been labelled a player's manager. He treated veteran players like
men, he was laid back, and generally let his players be. Gaston, the person,
was described in highly positive terms: a classy soft-spoken gentleman who
treated others fairly and considerately. Gaston seems to be a decent and
likable fellow, but how relevant is that? Besides, he was apparently so
soft-spoken that communication became a problem. In addition, the Jays
apparently dumped David Wells
, Bell, and Knorr simply because Gaston did not
personally like them, and got little in return.
Gaston was highly criticized in Toronto throughout his nine-year tenure
despite his successes (four AL East pennants, two World Series wins). This
was mostly due to his managerial style of doing practically nothing at all.
Under Gaston, the Jays rarely bunted, pinch-hit, or pinch ran. They did not
hit and run, platoon, or use the squeeze play. Gaston rarely showed emotion
and never gave speeches. He kept his veterans in the line-up, taking them
out only after amputation or retirement, whichever came first. The biggest
complaint was that he has a slow hook with his starting pitchers. One word best
characterizes his managerial style: loyalty. All the above can be seen as
offshoots of his loyalty; let the regulars swing away and let your starter get
out of his own jams. As is often the case, one's greatest strength becomes the
cause of one's downfall.
Gaston's style worked well in 1992 when his pitchers were Jack Morris
, Juan Guzman, Jimmy Key
, David Wells, Todd Stottlemyre
, Duane Ward
. It worked well for the 1993 line-up which featured five all-stars,
, and Tony Fernandez
. There is a lot to be said for being loyal
and showing confidence in your players, and also in not investing outs in
one-run strategies. It may be better to "under-manage" than "over-manage". But
Gaston never adjusted his style even though the team changed drastically.
Loyalty is not a positive attribute when your loyalties are to mediocre
veterans. Perhaps Gaston's biggest weakness was a direct result of his loyalty
to veterans: his unwillingness to give young players a fair chance. From
1989-1995, he made regulars out of only a few young players: Olerud, Sprague,
and arguably Junior Felix
. A bad farm system is partly to blame, but Cito's
habitual reluctance to entrust younger players with larger roles was a major
problem. For example:
General Manager Gord Ash
- Green & Gonzalez
During the first half of 1997 Gonzalez was the only youngster playing every
day. His defense was fine, but he has yet to hit. Shawn Green has also
struggled both offensively and defensively. Green has a strong and
accurate arm, but frequently appeared tentative in the outfield, and he's made
some ugly mistakes. Gaston's reaction to Green's lapses was to bench him. It
took Gaston two and a half years to let Green, an I.L. batting champion and the
AAA team MVP, play. It was only after the failure of The Sierra Experiment and
Orlando Merced's injury that Green finally got the job full-time.
- Carlos Delgado
It is simply inexcusable that it took Gaston over three years to let Delgado
hit every day in the major leagues. As a rookie, he had hit eight homers in
April 1994 before slumping, benching, and dumping.
- Stewart & Nixon
Shannon Stewart should have been playing regularly by late 1996 instead of
Otis Nixon, but only got the chance when Nixon got traded in August 1997.
This is not a criticism of Nixon. Nixon should be admired for playing
almost as well as ever at age 38. Nixon is still extremely fast, and he was
stealing bases at a truly remarkable clip for a man his age. In fact, his
on-base percentage might have made him one of the more potent Jays - though
that's faint praise. On the other hand, he has NO power, NO arm, and his range
has declined steeply in recent years. Ironically, the major question about
Stewart is his arm. It simply did not make sense to continue playing Nixon on a
non-contender when he was blocking the way of a highly touted prospect fifteen
years younger than he. After the Jays donated Nixon to the Dodgers, Stewart
finally got his chance and played even better than could have been hoped for:
reaching base, hitting doubles and triples, and playing a solid center field.
Stewart may not wind up being as great a player as Brett Butler, but he very
well could be.
- Joe Carter
Joe Carter let it be known that he did not want to DH more than once a week,
despite the fact that he's clearly lost a step and had gone from adequate to
inadequate as an outfielder. Gaston would fill out his line-up, leaving the
positions for Green and Carter blank. He then would let Carter decide who would
play the field and who would DH. Gaston's loyalty had become preferential
treatment, and it hurt Green's development defensively, and it hurt the team.
He would sometimes put Carter at first and let Delgado DH.
Delgado, a catcher in the minors, needed the innings at first base, and
Carter was even worse at first base than in the outfield.
- Third Base
After a decent start, Sprague was awful. Rumors that Sprague was playing
hurt throughout the summer were confirmed when he finally went on the DL
with a bad shoulder. Why did Gaston continually put Sprague's name in the
line-up even though Sprague was hurting the team? Loyalty of course. Even
if Gaston did not know the extent of the injury, Sprague's play merited time
on the bench. But benching a veteran was simply unimaginable to Gaston. In
Sprague's absence, prospect Tom Evans played well. When Evans went down, Felipe
Crespo hit well. When Crespo went down, Juan Samuel hit well. It was eerie that
all three third basemen suffered the same otherwise rare shoulder injury. There
is a rumor that if the Jays release Carter, Sprague may become the DH. Although
the idea of Sprague DHing is laughable, three positive things would result:
Evans will get to play, Sprague won't be at third, and Carter won't be a Jay.
Who is Gord Ash? Ash is an accountant who joined the Jays in their
expansion year. He worked his way up until he was the Assistant GM to Pat
Gillick. His main task was contract negotiations. Before his short-lived
retirement, Gillick had chosen Ash as his successor. Ash's track record is
at best mixed, at worst awful. In his first year as GM, he re-signed
Guzman to a one-year deal (which made no sense - see
Baseball Prospectus 1996
gave Sprague a big contract (ditto) and added Hanson, Cairo, Risley,
Nixon, Samuel, Brumfield and O'Brien. In other words, nothing much positive
happened. Let's examine his recent moves more closely.
- Olerud or Carter?
With Delgado, Carter and Olerud basically occupying two positions, Ash chose
to trade Olerud instead of Carter, obtaining Robert Person from the Mets.
Publicly, the excuse was Olerud's salary and effectiveness, but that was
ridiculous. The Jays still paid for most of Olerud's salary and they then
spent tons of money on other (worse) players. I suspect that he was traded
for four reasons. First, he had failed to fulfill the team's lofty
expectations, which were based on his 1993 season. This reminds me of how
"disappointing" Darryl Strawberry was when he would only hit 39 home runs.
The second reason was Olerud's habit of taking third strikes, especially
with men on base. Many of those were borderline strikes, i.e. balls, but
Olerud would not "protect the plate", instead trusting his strike zone
judgment. Compounding the problem was that Olerud would never have a bad
word for the umpire. His quiet nature was interpreted as indifference or as
a lack of competitiveness. The theory in Toronto was that having escaped
death, Olerud had put the game of baseball in proper perspective,
understanding what is truly important in life. In short, reason #3 was
that the team was fed up with his emotionless methodical approach. Fourth,
Carter was far more popular with Gaston. The fact that Olerud was offensively
and defensively solid and considerably better and younger than Carter was
conveniently overlooked. The punch line is that Olerud played better in 1997
than any Blue Jay regular.
- Benito and the Pirates
After the dismal 1996 season, Ash correctly saw that the Blue Jays had
weaknesses at catcher, second base, in the outfield, and in the bullpen. He
set out logically to rectify those problems by trading six prospects for 2B
Carlos Garcia, RF Orlando Merced, and LHP Dan Plesac. He then gave a
three-year deal to C Benito Santiago. In short, Ash chose the wrong guys to
solve any of these problems. Santiago was a 31 year catcher, who has bounced
around from team to team, and who was not being pursued by his former team
despite coming off a "good" year. Of the four, only Plesac contributed, and
even that acquisition was of dubious value. Is it so hard to find and sign the
likes of a Plesac, an Assenmacher, or a Vosberg, that you must trade prospects
for them? Garcia and Santiago were both awful, offensively and defensively. In
the second half, Santiago uprighted himself, playing better defense, and
hitting as could have been reasonably expected (ie, still rather anemic).
Garcia was finally benched after getting hurt, with Tomas Perez and then
Mariano Duncan were used. Not surprisingly, neither man solved the problem,
though Perez's defense looks good. Merced played decently - as he always has -
but failed to do anything to bring the team back to contending level. If Merced
is your best outfielder, as he was in the first half of 1997, you've got a bad
team. All he really did was take away at-bats from Green and Delgado.
While no one anticipated that Benito and the Pirates would turn out quite as
badly as they did, one wonders how Ash could have expected the hitters to
help his offense. What was particularly insulting to the intelligence of
Toronto fans were the claims by Gaston and Ash throughout April and May that
these career National League players needed time to adjust to the American
League. "Look at Grissom" - who was fighting an injury - they said. At the
time, two other career National League players, David Justice and Matt
Williams, were batting over .340. Obviously, adjusting must come quicker to
those who can actually hit.
- Cruz-zing with Clemens
A Gord Ash supporter would argue that he identified and signed the best
pitcher available in Clemens, and then stole Jose Cruz from the Mariners for
Mike Timlin and Paul Spoljaric. True, but... Many other teams shared his
opinion that Clemens was still a great pitcher; otherwise they would not
have offered Clemens the millions of dollars that they did. Ash was simply
able to outbid them while Paul Beeston out-charmed them. Ash admits that he
did not expect Clemens to pitch as well as he did. So do we credit a) Ash, b)
Beeston, or c) Clemens?
While the Cruz trade was lopsided in favor of the Jays, it seems that the
only people in the whole baseball world who felt otherwise were working for
the Mariners. The Mariners obviously needed relief pitching and felt that
they could afford to sacrifice offense. Spoljaric had been effective with
the Jays, while Timlin, who lost his stopper role after the first game of
the season (really!), might have turned it around under a manager who showed
confidence in him. Cruz's defense is considered suspect so far, and he strikes
out once a game. But that is no comfort to Mariner fans who immediately and
strongly protested the trade. They realized that they had lost an exciting
young player who could hit thirty homers a year for the next ten or fifteen
years. So, while Ash certainly should get credit for his negotiation skills
whereby he took advantage of a team panicking over its bullpen weakness, I view
the trade as more of an example of the Mariners' bad judgment and panic than as
a credit to Ash.
The pitching (third in ERA in the AL) should be as good, if not better,
in 1998. Although Clemens certainly won't repeat his Triple Crown, he and
Hentgen should remain very good. Despite poor run support, Woody Williams
pitched pretty well as the fifth starter who became the third starter when
Guzman and Hanson were injured. If healthy - no sure thing - both will
contribute more than in 1997. Robert Person did not pitch well, but has a
fastball that will get him more chances. Perhaps the biggest key will be Chris
Carpenter, who started terribly and finished strongly. Certain factors
point to his continued development: success in the minors, a good fastball,
the marked improvement during his short time up, his poise, and his work ethic.
Even when he was getting hammered, one could see that he had good stuff. He
could take a big step forward. In the minors, Roy Halladay is not considered
ready yet. It is likely that one or two of these eight starters will be traded.
It is equally likely that Ash will not get a fair return, if he follows the
form of last winters' deal with the Pirates.
In the bullpen, Kelvim Escobar is somewhat of a question mark, given that he
only pitched 31 innings. But it's unanimous: 30 million Canadians would
prefer to start the season with him as the closer than Mike Timlin. Paul
Quantrill pitched well in a set-up role, about which I wonder: what took so
long? The book on him since his Boston days was that he could throw strikes
with four different pitches, but lacked an out pitch and a blazing fastball.
The lack of heat meant he would not be considered seriously in the closer's
role, and the lack of an out pitch translated into too many hits allowed,
particularly of the home run variety. The book was consistently borne out by
his record. What Quantrill does do is throw strikes. His stuff is just good
enough to get through the order once, and it sure seemed obvious that he is
best suited for middle relief. 1997 was his first chance in that role and he
shone. Dan Plesac pitched well as the lefty set-up man, and will probably do so
again. Tim Crabtree and Bill Risley were injured most of the year; whether they
can contribute is questionable. Carlos Almanzar and Ken Robinson will also look
for relief spots. Marty Janzen and Omar Daal pitched well in September, but
were lost in the expansion draft (as well as OF Rich Butler). Daal's loss is no
big deal, but Janzen still has the potential for a big up-side.
- On-Base Percentage - Ash to Ashes
The Jays' biggest problem was their inability to reach base. They were last
in the majors in on-base percentage, and only the Expos were close. It is
because of this glaring weakness that I am pessimistic about Ash and the
Jays' short term future. It is my belief that Ash has no idea of the
importance of on-base percentage. Look up the career on-base percentage
(and the age) of the players he thought would lead the Jays to contention:
Carter, Sprague, Gonzalez, Garcia, Santiago, O'Brien, Samuel, Brumfield,
Duncan, Sierra... all of them are awful when it comes to getting on base. Ash
was reportedly in trade discussions with the Expos - of all people - regarding
Mike Lansing and Henry Rodriguez, and was looking at Darrin Fletcher. These are
not bad players, but since none of them can get on base, they won't really help
the Jays score many more runs, and they won't turn the Jays into contenders.
This team will not contend until they drastically improve their ability to
reach base. Only Delgado has proven any knowledge of the strike zone. Stewart
did it for a month, and Green has shown
signs of doing so also. Cruz and Gonzalez are young enough to improve.
There is reason for optimism for the Jays. They ended the season with one
of the youngest starting line-ups in the league. Regulars Cruz, Stewart,
Green, Delgado and Gonzalez are all aged 25 or under. Gaston is gone. Tim
, the new manager, will let the kids play, and that has got to help.
Johnson is also expected to help the Jays with their clubhouse dissension
and immature attitudes. Guzman and Hanson are expected back, and Escobar
will not lose his stopper role after one game. Sprague and Santiago may not
rebound to their 1996 levels, but both should easily be better than 1997.
Gonzalez can only get better, and it will be hard to get less production out
of second base and DH (unless they keep Carter). There should be some
offensive improvement in seven spots, all nine if Ash gets a decent second
baseman and DH. Unfortunately, the Jays will need substantial improvement to
Despite these positive signs, there are simply too many question marks.
Cruz, Green and Gonzalez need to improve, but will they? Will Guzman and /
or Hanson come back and pitch well? Who will play at second? Is Escobar
for real? Will they continue to play O'Brien, Carter and Sprague? In
addition, with Gaston managing, the Jays only needed 10 position players.
Ash must now provide 14. Will he be up to the task? Will Ash obtain
players who can reach base?
Ash is remarkably and refreshingly forthright in his dealings with the media.
And from the sounds of it, he is looking at 20-homer guys who don't get on base
(like les trois Expos). Even with the expected loss (gain?) of Carter, the team
has adequate power. Unfortunately Ash just doesn't seem to understand that you
have to get to first base before you can score. He also seems to think that a
player reaches his peak at age 31. As long as Ash is in charge, I remain
pessimistic. He has shown little aptitude at player evaluation.