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May 10, 2004

Taking One for the Team

When Does it Make Sense to Sacrifice?, Part 2

by James Click

Part 1: Taking One for the Team: When Does it Make Sense to Sacrifice?

Batter One Hits for More Power

Since Batter One, who hits nothing but singles, does not exist, we obviously have to expand our information on Batter One to more realistically simulate the choices facing the manager. Thus, we'll add in the full range of result possibilities for Batter One, allowing him to do more than just single. Of course, that results in an immense formula that reveals little about the efficacy of sacrifices. Instead, viewing how the formula handles actual players can yield some more useful insights.

The data for all regular players from 2000-2003 still shows that sacrifices are almost never a good idea. Putting the 2001 version of Ichiro--the player with the highest breakeven point for Batter One's AVG--in front of every batter, the minimum expected runs lost by sacrificing over swinging away is 0.018, when Ichiro bats in front of Chris Truby in 2002 and his massive .199/.215/.282 line while he was in Detroit. Using other batters who are also highly adept at taking advantage of a sacrifice for Batter Two yield no situations in which run expectation increases by sacrificing, at least when there's a runner on first and one out.

Expanding the results to look at other sacrifice situations does not change these conclusions. Looking at the second situation--a runner on first and no outs--and using the same plan of attack, the smallest difference between sacrificing and swinging away is again Truby and Suzuki, but this time the difference is .085 runs. Other players who come close are Craig Paquette in 2002, Alex Gonzalez in 2000, and Pat Meares in 2001 with .100, .107, and .114, respectively. (Not surprisingly, the three players who should never sacrifice as Batter One are Barry Bonds 2003, Barry Bonds 2001, and Barry Bonds 2002, costing the team .466, .481, and .518 runs respectively.)

Equation Enhancements