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Thursday is dynasty day in our weekly positional coverage, and just as Matt Collins gave you a category-by-category breakdown of two backstops to complement Mike Gianella’s tiered re-draft rankings, I’m here to offer an in-depth look at a pair of catching prospects as a companion to Bret Sayre’s dynasty list.

Jorge Alfaro has been a dynasty darling since his breakout in 2013, but 2015 saw him suffer a major injury and fail to take a developmental step forward. Jacob Nottingham was one of 2015’s biggest pop-up prospects, showing well across two levels and turning himself into a major trade chip that brought a solid starting pitcher to Houston at the deadline. How will last year’s top-20 dynasty asset fare against the new guy on the block?

Batting Average

Alfaro has never hit above .261 in any meaningful sample and owns a 26.1 percent strikeout rate over the course of his minor-league career, including a 29.5 percent mark at the at the Double-A level in 2015. He’s a free swinger whose approach will need to evolve to make .240 a realistic major-league projection. Nottingham made enormous strides at the plate in 2015, showing improved bat speed and barrel control than he had previously, while playing increasingly stiff competition at age 20. However, he remains aggressive, and the .316 batting average you see in his 2015 stat line was aided significantly by batted-ball luck. Nottingham might not help your squad’s batting average, but he’s less of a risk to drag it down than Alfaro.

Advantage: Nottingham

On-Base Percentage

Neither one of these players is fond of not swinging. Alfaro’s walk rate has gone from 6.7 percent at Low-A in 2013, to 6.1 percent at High-A in 2014, to 4.3 percent at Double-A in his abbreviated 2015 season. Nottingham’s 2015 walk rates were right in line with what Alfaro did at the same levels. Nottingham drew a free pass 7.1 percent of the time in the Midwest League before dropping off to 5.8 percent after his promotion to the Cal League. Without a material difference in approach, the nod goes to the player I think will hit his way on more often.

Advantage: Nottingham

Home Runs

Alfaro possesses 70-grade raw and is capable of the brand of moon shot that makes dynasty owners dream of 30 home runs from fantasy’s weakest position. Nottingham’s power is more of an above-average variety than a top-of-the-position potential, but his ten bombs in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League was particularly impressive. Nottingham’s higher probability of accessing the power in games draws this category closer than you might think, but the prodigious tool wins out.

Advantage: Alfaro

Runs/RBI

The prospect of Alfaro blossoming into one of the league’s most powerful hitters allows for a cleanup projection, whereas Nottingham is likely to be penciled in a little farther down the card. While we’re speculating about contextual factors, I’ll note here that Alfaro’s current parent club plays in a far friendlier run-scoring environment than Nottingham’s. I don’t suspect either will be traded prior to his major-league debut, but I can’t assign too much value to home parks when neither one is knocking on the door. Alfaro earns the edge, but this gets the lowest weight of any category in the bunch.

Advantage: Alfaro

Stolen Bases

Both players are more athletic than your average catcher but I don’t see either one as a threat to steal more than five bases as a major leaguer. Alfaro once stole 16 in a minor-league season but his physical maturation and an ankle injury (more on this later) sap any reasonable expectation of impact base-stealing at the big-league level. Nottingham had a football scholarship offer to play linebacker at Arizona, so you figure he can run a little, but he hasn’t shown it on the basepaths as a professional. He has nine steals on his professional resume, including only two in a full 2015.

Advantage: Neither

Nickname

Alfaro is known as The Legend around these parts, which is pretty damn cool, but nicknames you get for stuff you did when you were 16 don’t hold water into your 20s if you can no longer back it up. The Sheriff comes by his more organically, the intersection of a given surname and a reference to the tax collecting adversary of Disney’s greatest protagonist. Only one gives you the opportunity to say oo-de-lally, oo-de-lallay, golly what a play.

Advantage: The Sheriff

Injury Risk

Alfaro injured his ankle on June 10 and missed nearly three months of game time recovering from surgery. I’m not a doctor, but ankle injuries that require surgery and 10 weeks of rehab aren’t a positive for a person who has to squat a few hundred times per day. Alfaro’s appearances behind the plate in Venezuelan winter ball imply full health, but I’m interested to see how he holds up once we get in to full-season action. Nottingham played in 119 games in 2015.

Advantage: Nottingham

Risk/Upside

There is little question that Alfaro carries the higher upside of these two, and perhaps the highest upside of any prospect at the position. If he’s able to make even moderate strides at the plate in 2016—enough that he can actualize more of that raw power while not sinking your average—you’re looking at a player who will contend for the top spot at this position in his prime. On the other hand, if Alfaro continues to demonstrate the same approach he has thus far, you’re looking at Wilson Ramos circa 2015 (.229 batting average, 15 homers, barely a top-20 catcher).

Nottingham’s ceiling is lower than Alfaro’s but that doesn’t mean he’s devoid of upside. Nottingham hit 17 home runs among 52 extra base hits last year, while playing at age 20 and in a difficult environment for the first half of the season. There may not be room for growth in the stat line itself, but there is room for continued refinement of the underlying skills, which would allow him to hold some of those statistical gains. The siren song of immense upside is hard to circumnavigate, but I’m willing sacrifice a little future potential for what I think is a more stable profile at present, even if it’s based on one breakout season. I won’t argue with you if you want to go the other way.

Advantage: Nottingham, just barely

Estimated Time of Impact

Were it not for the leg injury, a second half call might be in the cards for Alfaro in 2016. As it stands, he’ll probably head back to Double-A to make up for the lost development time. Nottingham will play 2016 at 21 years old and with only 60 games of High-A under his belt. It’s hard to imagine him advancing past Double-A in 2016. Alfaro is closer to the majors, if only by a half-season or so, but he is also closer to major league impact because of his offensive carrying tool. Even if he arrives in Philadelphia without refinements in his approach, Alfaro can likely help your home run total straight away. It may come at the expense of your batting average, but I can see a case for immediate impact depending on your league depth and roster construction.

One other thing I have yet to mention is the possibility that either one moves off of catcher. Alfaro has a double-plus arm, but there have been some discouraging reports on his ability as a receiver and our new, amazing minor-league catching stats largely agree with those reports. Combine that with the fact that Philly has some organizational depth in Andrew Knapp and it’s not hard to see Alfaro in right field some day. Cannon arms work well there too. Nottingham’s receiving has been called in to question as well, but I think his future behind the plate is more secure for the time being, in part because Oakland has nowhere else to turn. The possibility of Alfaro moving sooner means more paths to the majors.

Advantage: Alfaro

Overall

If the back-to-back placement on Bret’s list didn’t make this obvious already, it’s hard to draw a meaningful distinction in overall value between these two players. Your preference probably depends on your risk tolerance or your team’s ability to absorb what will probably be batting average drain. My personal preference is to avoid extreme variance players who might sink a category, so I’m willing to sacrifice some potential and immediacy to take the safer bet and the more balanced player.

And the winner is… Nottingham.

Thank you for reading

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dcapofari
1/14
great article, thanks. Would either of these players be in the top 100 if they played 1b or OF? just off their bat skills and athleticism
gregwellemeyer
1/14
Yes, I think both have enough bat to make it as OF but the case would be more tenuous if they were 1B. Likely a non-issue, as there's no reason to believe either would give up catcher eligibility before they lose prospect status.
adrock
1/14
I salute your reference to Roger Miller and one of the most under-rated Disney cartoons!