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April 6, 2004

Preseason Predictions

Baseball Prospectus Staff, 2004

by Baseball Prospectus

For the following survey, 13 members of the Baseball Prospectus staff submitted their predictions in time for publication, covering--among other things--divisional standings and end-of-season awards.

National League

National League East

BP Author        First     Second    Third    Fourth   Fifth
Steven Goldman   Marlins   Phillies  Braves   Expos    Mets
Gary Huckabay    Phillies  Braves    Mets     Marlins  Expos
Rany Jazayerli   Phillies  Braves    Marlins  Expos    Mets
Chris Kahrl      Phillies  Marlins   Braves   Expos    Mets
Jonah Keri       Braves    Phillies  Expos    Mets     Marlins
Doug Pappas      Phillies  Marlins   Braves   Mets     Expos
Dayn Perry       Phillies  Braves    Expos    Mets     Marlins
Joe Sheehan      Phillies  Braves    Expos    Mets     Marlins
Nate Silver      Phillies  Braves    Marlins  Expos    Mets
Ryan Wilkins     Phillies  Braves    Expos    Marlins  Mets
Mike Wolverton   Phillies  Braves    Marlins  Expos    Mets
Derek Zumsteg    Phillies  Braves    Expos    Marlins  Mets

National League Central

BP Author        First   Second   Third    Fourth   Fifth    Sixth
Steven Goldman   Cubs    Astros   Cards    Pirates  Brewers  Reds
Gary Huckabay    Cubs    Astros   Cards    Reds     Pirates  Brewers
Rany Jazayerli   Astros  Cubs     Cards    Reds     Brewers  Pirates
Chris Kahrl      Cubs    Astros   Cards    Brewers  Reds     Pirates
Jonah Keri       Astros  Cards    Cubs     Reds     Brewers  Pirates
Doug Pappas      Astros  Cubs     Cards    Reds     Pirates  Brewers
Dayn Perry       Astros  Cubs     Cards    Reds     Pirates  Brewers
Joe Sheehan      Astros  Cubs     Cards    Reds     Brewers  Pirates
Nate Silver      Astros  Cubs     Cards    Reds     Brewers  Pirates
Ryan Wilkins     Astros  Cubs     Cards    Reds     Brewers  Pirates
Mike Wolverton   Cubs    Astros   Cards    Reds     Brewers  Pirates
Derek Zumsteg    Astros  Cubs     Cards    Reds     Brewers  Pirates

National League West

BP Author        First    Second    Third    Fourth   Fifth
Steven Goldman   D'backs  Padres    Giants   Dodgers  Rockies
Gary Huckabay    Padres   Dodgers   Giants   Rockies  D'backs
Rany Jazayerli   Dodgers  D'backs   Padres   Giants   Rockies
Chris Kahrl      Padres   D'backs   Dodgers  Giants   Rockies
Jonah Keri       D'backs  Padres    Giants   Dodgers  Rockies
Doug Pappas      Giants   Padres    D'backs  Dodgers  Rockies
Dayn Perry       Padres   D'backs   Giants   Dodgers  Rockies
Joe Sheehan      Padres   Dodgers   Giants   D'backs  Rockies
Nate Silver      Padres   Giants    D'backs  Dodgers  Rockies
Ryan Wilkins     Padres   Dodgers   Giants   D'backs  Rockies
Mike Wolverton   Dodgers  D'backs   Giants   Padres   Rockies
Derek Zumsteg    Padres   D'backs   Giants   Dodgers  Rockies

Postseason

                                        NL World Series
BP Author       NLCS Representatives    Representative
Will Carroll    --                      Cubs
Steven Goldman  Cubs, Marlins           Cubs
Gary Huckabay   Astros, Phillies        Phillies
Rany Jazayerli  Astros, Dodgers         Astros
Chris Kahrl     Cubs, Phillies          Cubs
Jonah Keri      Astros, Braves          Braves
Doug Pappas     --                      Astros
Dayn Perry      Astros, Phillies        Astros 
Joe Sheehan     Cubs, Phillies          Phillies
Nate Silver     Cubs, Phillies          Phillies
Ryan Wilkins    Cubs, Phillies          Phillies 
Derek Zumsteg   --                      Phillies 

NL Awards / Miscellaneous

BP Author       NL MVP          Cy Young Award
Will Carroll    Barry Bonds     Kerry Wood
Steven Goldman  Jim Thome       Josh Beckett
Gary Huckabay   Albert Pujols   Eric Gagne
Rany Jazayerli  Jim Thome       Josh Beckett
Chris Kahrl     Jim Thome       Kevin Millwood
Jonah Keri      Albert Pujols   Brandon Webb
Doug Pappas     Albert Pujols   Kerry Wood
Dayn Perry      Jim Thome       Roy Oswalt
Joe Sheehan     Bobby Abreu     Roy Oswalt
Nate Silver     Jim Thome       Billy Wagner
Ryan Wilkins    Albert Pujols   Kerry Wood
Mike Wolverton  J.D. Drew       Randy Johnson
Derek Zumsteg   Barry Bonds     Mark Prior

BP Author        NL RoY          NL MoY
Will Carroll     Kazuo Matsui    Jack McKeon
Steven Goldman   David Aardsma   Bruce Bochy
Gary Huckabay    Khalil Greene   Bruce Bochy
Rany Jazayerli   Kazuo Matsui    Jim Tracy
Chris Kahrl      Kazuo Matsui    Bruce Bochy
Jonah Keri       Adam LaRoche    Bob Brenly
Doug Pappas      --              Jimy Williams
Dayn Perry       Kazuo Matsui    Bruce Bochy
Joe Sheehan      Kazuo Matsui    Bruce Bochy
Nate Silver      Kazuo Matsui    Bruce Bochy
Ryan Wilkins     Kazuo Matsui    Bruce Bochy
Mike Wolverton   Adam LaRoche    Larry Bowa
Derek Zumsteg    Kazuo Matsui    Bruce Bochy

American League

American League East

BP Author        First    Second     Third      Fourth    Fifth
Steven Goldman   Yankees  Red Sox    Blue Jays  Orioles   D-Rays     
Gary Huckabay    Yankees  Blue Jays  Red Sox    Orioles   D-Rays
Rany Jazayerli   Red Sox  Yankees    Blue Jays  Orioles   D-Rays
Chris Kahrl      Red Sox  Yankees    Blue Jays  Orioles   D-Rays
Jonah Keri       Yankees  Red Sox    Orioles    Blue Jays D-Rays
Doug Pappas      Yankees  Red Sox    Blue Jays  Orioles   D-Rays
Dayn Perry       Yankees  Red Sox    Blue Jays  Orioles   D-Rays
Joe Sheehan      Red Sox  Yankees    Blue Jays  Orioles   D-Rays
Nate Silver      Yankees  Red Sox    Blue Jays  Orioles   D-Rays
Ryan Wilkins     Red Sox  Yankees    Blue Jays  Orioles   D-Rays
Mike Wolverton   Yankees  Red Sox    Blue Jays  Orioles   D-Rays
Derek Zumsteg    Red Sox  Yankees    Blue Jays  Orioles   D-Rays

American League Central

BP Author         First      Second     Third      Fourth    Fifth
Steven Goldman    Twins      Royals     White Sox  Indians   Tigers     
Gary Huckabay     Twins      Royals     White Sox  Indians   Tigers
Rany Jazayerli    Royals     Twins      White Sox  Indians   Tigers
Chris Kahrl       Twins      White Sox  Royals     Indians   Tigers
Jonah Keri        Royals     Twins      White Sox  Indians   Tigers
Doug Pappas       Twins      White Sox  Indians    Royals    Tigers
Dayn Perry        Royals     Twins      Indians    White Sox Tigers
Joe Sheehan       Twins      White Sox  Tigers     Royals    Indians
Nate Silver       Twins      White Sox  Royals     Indians   Tigers
Ryan Wilkins      Royals     Twins      White Sox  Indians   Tigers
Mike Wolverton    Twins      White Sox  Royals     Indians   Tigers
Derek Zumsteg     Twins      White Sox  Royals     Indians   Tigers

American League West

BP Author       First      Second    Third     Fourth
Steven Goldman  Angels     Athletics Mariners  Rangers     
Gary Huckabay   Athletics  Angels    Mariners  Rangers
Rany Jazayerli  Athletics  Angels    Mariners  Rangers
Chris Kahrl     Athletics  Angels    Mariners  Rangers
Jonah Keri      Athletics  Angels    Mariners  Rangers
Doug Pappas     Athletics  Angels    Mariners  Rangers
Dayn Perry      Athletics  Angels    Mariners  Rangers
Joe Sheehan     Angels     Athletics Mariners  Rangers
Nate Silver     Athletics  Mariners  Angels    Rangers
Ryan Wilkins    Athletics  Angels    Mariners  Rangers
Mike Wolverton  Athletics  Angels    Mariners  Rangers
Derek Zumsteg   Athletics  Mariners  Angels    Rangers

Postseason

                                        AL World Series
BP Author       ALCS Representatives    Representative
Will Carroll    --                      Red Sox
Steven Goldman  Red Sox, Yankees        Yankees
Gary Huckabay   Athletics, Yankees      Athletics
Rany Jazayerli  Athletics, Red Sox      Red Sox
Chris Kahrl     Athletics, Red Sox      Red Sox
Jonah Keri      Athletics, Yankees      Athletics
Doug Pappas     --                      Athletics
Dayn Perry      Red Sox, Yankees        Yankees
Joe Sheehan     Red Sox, Yankees        Red Sox
Nate Silver     Athletics, Red Sox      Red Sox
Ryan Wilkins    Athletics, Red Sox      Red Sox 
Derek Zumsteg   --                      Athletics                  

AL Awards / Miscellaneous

BP Author          AL MVP             Cy Young Award
Will Carroll       Pedro Martinez     Pedro Martinez
Steven Goldman     Alex Rodriguez     Tim Hudson    
Gary Huckabay      Alex Rodriguez     Pedro Martinez
Rany Jazayerli     Carlos Beltran     Curt Schilling
Chris Kahrl        Eric Chavez        Curt Schilling
Jonah Keri         Alex Rodriguez     Tim Hudson
Doug Pappas        Alex Rodriguez     Curt Schilling
Dayn Perry         Carlos Beltran     Javier Vazquez 
Joe Sheehan        Vladimir Guerrero  Mike Mussina
Nate Silver        Alex Rodriguez     Mike Mussina
Ryan Wilkins       Carlos Beltran     Javier Vazquez 
Mike Wolverton     Alex Rodriguez     Tim Hudson
Derek Zumsteg      Alex Rodriguez     Mike Mussina 

BP Author        AL RoY          AL MoY
Will Carroll     Joe Mauer       Tony Pena
Steven Goldman   Joe Mauer       Tony Pena
Gary Huckabay    Bobby Crosby    Alan Trammell
Rany Jazayerli   Bobby Crosby    Terry Francona
Chris Kahrl      Jesse Crain     Ron Gardenhire
Jonah Keri       Bobby Crosby    Tony Pena
Dayn Perry       Bobby Crosby    Tony Pena
Joe Sheehan      Bobby Crosby    Terry Francona
Nate Silver      Grant Balfour   Alan Trammell
Ryan Wilkins     Grant Balfour   Tony Pena
Mike Wolverton   Joe Mauer       Terry Francona
Derek Zumsteg    Bobby Crosby    Terry Francona

The World Series

BP Author       World Series Winner
Will Carroll                Red Sox
Steven Goldman                 Cubs
Gary Huckabay             Athletics
Rany Jazayerli              Red Sox
Chris Kahrl                 Red Sox
Jonah Keri                Athletics
Doug Pappas                  Astros
Dayn Perry                  Yankees
Joe Sheehan                 Red Sox
Nate Silver                 Red Sox
Ryan Wilkins                Red Sox
Derek Zumsteg             Athletics

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