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September 10, 2015

Eyewitness Accounts

September 10, 2015

by Wilson Karaman and Colin Young

Francis Martes

Born: 11/24/1995 (Age: 19)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Height: 6' 1" Weight: 225
Mechanics
Broad shoulders, wide hips, thick middle; mature, high-maintenance body type; fluid movement; generates early momentum, consistent posture through takeaway; aggressive leg kick can compromise balance, gets quick through early checkpoints; clean arm action, premium arm speed to a true three-quarters slot; hard downhill drive, gets extension from the rubber, hides the ball, firm foot strike with occasional recoil; lower half gets quick, will leave arm behind and lose pitches arm-side; easy deceleration, arm finishes clean; 1.09-1.22 home with a semi-slide step; quick feet to first, shows ability to control running game.
Evaluator Wilson Karaman
Report Date 08/27/2015
Affiliate Lancaster JetHawks (High A, Astros)
Dates Seen 7/24/15
OFP/Risk 70/High
Realistic 60
MLB ETA 2016
Video Yes
Pitch Type Present Grade Future Grade Sitting Velocity Peak Velocity Report
FB 60 70 92-95 98 Explosive pitch; above-average arm-side run, natural tailing action, late life; deception and extension help velocity play up; heavy pitch down in the zone, shows feel to elevate; present command limits utility to a plus pitch, minimal command refinement and consistency will push to a plus-plus weapon
CB 65 70 83-85 85 Hard curveball with slider-like velocity and movement; tight rotation, late 11-5 break; Plus-plus movement, repeats arm speed effectively; can work in zone or as a chaser, will front-door early and late in counts; ability to freeze hitters, tough pitch to identify out of the hand.
CH 45 55 87-88 89 Firm change with below-average separation but above-average tumble and moderate fade; plays well off fastball plane, consistent arm speed, shows feel; limited swing-and-miss potential, movement and feel suggest above-average projection as complimentary pitch.
Overall

Martes has frontline stuff in the form of two potential 70-grade pitches thanks to a powerful lower half and premium arm speed. His delivery is inconsistent pitch-to-pitch right now, and his firm foot strike and landing requires attention. But the physicality suggests ample room for projecting refinement and he already demonstrates an advanced feel for commanding the baseball in spite of his mechanical inconsistencies. There's above-average potential here for commanding what is already a nasty arsenal.

He's aggressive on the mound, pitching with swagger and moxie. With standard command improvement and the greater consistency that comes through repetition Martes has the potential to develop into a top-of-the-rotation starter, with a high floor at the back end of a Major League bullpen on the strength of a dynamic fastball-curve combination that could devastate in short bursts.



Jose Leclerc

Born: 12/19/1993 (Age: 21)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Height: 6' 0" Weight: 165
Mechanics
Fluid, easy leg lift, hand separation to max effort, violent finish leading to crossfire. Above-average arm speed at three-quarters arm slot. Clean, loose arm action. Tendency to head whack when overthrowing. Clean, strong drive towards plate, slightly closed at foot strike. Overall, smooth body motion and arm action with tendency to overthrow. Some timing issues with repeatability by missing balance point. Delivery times ranged from 1.22 to 1.47 with runners on.
Evaluator Colin Young
Report Date 09/01/2015
Affiliate Frisco RoughRiders (AA, Rangers)
Dates Seen 4/25; 5/28; 6/20; 7/16
OFP/Risk 50/Moderate
Realistic 45
MLB ETA 2017
Video No
Pitch Type Present Grade Future Grade Sitting Velocity Peak Velocity Report
Fastball 55 60 91 96 four-seam fastball with late life and arm side run; ball may cut when frontside opens early and arm comes through slot low; 45-grade command but can improve with less violent finish.
Curveball 50 60 73 74 12-6 shape with depth and sharp bite; tendency to slow down arm speed with curveball causing inconsistency with command
Changeup 1 40 45 82 83 Relatively flat change with a hint of arm side run; No plane change; Average command with a plus change in speed; Arm speed replication of fastball
Changeup 2 55 55 83 84 Cut changeup with plus tumble at plate; Arm speed replication of fastball but can have command issues and inconsistency; Slider like appearance to hitters
Overall

While Leclerc started off slowly as a starter this year he has shown flashes of excellence periodically throughout the season. This was very much a learning and maturation year for him as far as understanding his repertoire and his pitchability. He still has his moments of overthrowing and not trusting his body which leads to the elevation of pitches. When he stays within himself and works at a controlled pace he can be lights out. The name of the game for Leclerc is command and repeatability with his mechanics. The inconsistency and inability to string together quality starts is very concerning and signifies he may be better suited for the bullpen in the future. Leclerc's walk totals are too high to carry him through the 5th inning typically. He's the type of pitcher with plus stuff that can be more effective on an inning-to-inning basis.


Reed Garrett

Born: 01/02/1993 (Age: 22)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Height: 6' 2" Weight: 170
Mechanics
Balanced takeaway with posture, moderate leg kick; glove hand flies out to full extension, some deception; shallow arm action to high-three-quarters slot, average arm speed; inconsistent drive, drifts from rubber, velocity fluctuates; 1:18-1.34 to the plate.
Evaluator Wilson Karaman
Report Date 09/06/2015
Affiliate High Desert Mavericks (High A, Rangers)
Dates Seen 9/4/15
OFP/Risk 40/High
Realistic 30/org arm
MLB ETA 2017
Video Yes
Pitch Type Present Grade Future Grade Sitting Velocity Peak Velocity Report
FB 45 50 87-91 92 Straight pitch with some boring action, moderate deception, downhill plane; limited swing-and-miss, inconsistent command to glove-side, velocity fluctuates; fringe-average present pitch can play to average with improved consistency.
CH 45 55 78-82 82 Above-average fade and tumble, consistent arm speed, plus velocity separation; confidence in pitch, will throw right-on-right, double-up; works off fastball plane when he turns it over but inconsistent execution, will leave flat and wide arm-side.
SL 30 40 84-85 86 Short break, breaks early, minimal tilt, not a bat-misser.
CB 30 40 77-80 80 Show-me pitch, visible out of hand; 12-6 with some depth but lacks bite, arm slows a touch on delivery.
Overall

Garrett competes well and shows fire in his belly, but the stuff and command profile isn't quite enough to project a big-league career with confidence. His fastball is an average pitch with some inconsistency in execution, and while the change plays well off the fastball plane the breaking pitches lag and limit the ceiling.


Alex Bregman

Born: 03/30/1994 (Age: 21)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Height: 6' 0" Weight: 180
Primary Position: SS
Secondary Position:
Physical/Health
Compact frame; athletic, well-filled out; developmentally maxed.
Evaluator Wilson Karaman
Report Date 09/06/2015
Dates Seen 8/24, 8/28, 9/4
Affiliate Lancaster JetHawks (High A, Astros)
MLB ETA Risk Factor OFP Realistic Role Video
2017 Low 55 50/solid regular Yes
Makeup

High energy, fierce competitor; top step guy, consistently engaged, can see the wheels turning between pitches; instinctual player with drive and self-confidence.

Tool Future Grade Report
Hit 60 Wide base, hands off back shoulder, bat waggle; minimal load, elite quickness in hands at trigger, above-average bat speed, mild leverage, premium barrel control; moderate stride, gets some separation; approach to right-center, maintains center of gravity, tracks well, can square up any offering, hand speed allows for in-swing adjustment.
Power 50 50 raw; mild-leverage, oppo approach with gap power in-game but will also turn and separate with greater leverage to pull side; looks to do damage to pull side.
Baserunning/Speed 55 Average or slightly better raw foot speed, 4.25-4.31 out of the box; quick to second gear, instincts and controlled aggressiveness on the bases help speed utility play up.
Glove 55 Gets low and aggressive at pitch, reads contact well, nimble first step; foot speed limits range, impressive mobility, quick actions, outstanding hands with give on receipt and strength in manipulating the glove; gets strong breaks back on pops over his head, comes across the bag clean on double play turns.
Arm 50 High-effort throwing motion, quick release with average arm strength and velocity, accurate, controls tailing action while moving away from target, ball gets some carry from the hole.
Overall

Bregman is a polished, confident player with solid across-the-board skills highlighted by a premium bat-to-ball ability and projection for a plus hit tool. His swing is aggressive; he attacks the baseball with an intent to do damage. He tracks pitches well, and the combination of strong wrists and elite hand quickness allow for in-swing adjustments, limiting the swing-and-miss in his game. There's average raw power here, and he'll get to it in games thanks to a timely willingness to separate and lift to the pull side. He's not a burner, but should offer some stolen base potential and above-average baserunning value.

Questions about his future at the six spot dogged Bregman through the draft, but I've seen a true shortstop in my looks thus far in his pro career. He lacks plus range or arm strength, but the actions will play and he demonstrates an instinctual feel for the position. The player's outstanding makeup should further afford benefit to any doubts.

This is a high probability prospect who should move quickly through the system, with a late-2016 big league ETA not out of the question.




Wilson Karaman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Wilson's other articles. You can contact Wilson by clicking here
Colin Young is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Colin's other articles. You can contact Colin by clicking here

6 comments have been left for this article.

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