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There was a loaded slate of stud pitchers on yesterday's docket, so many that the pitching well will be a bit shallow for the next few days. Matt Harvey will garner a large chunk of ownership shares, but after him the pool of arms dries up quickly, creating the opportunity to roster some creative SP2's and high-end bats in DFS tonight.

Platoons

Target: LHB's Adrian Gonzalez 1B ($4200, +137 OPS and +.070 ISO in career vs. RHP), Joc Pederson OF ($3800, +134 OPS and +.081 ISO vs. RHP) and Yasmani Grandal C ($3700, +113 OPS and +.062 ISO vs. RHP) facing RHP Matt Wisler ($7900, +228 OPS and +.064 ISO vs. LHB)

The Dodgers are particularly suited to mash right-handed pitchers, as evidenced by a team-wide isolated power that swells by 46 points when compared to their performance against lefties. The streak-prone Gonzalez has been on a roll lately, with a .304/.373/.783 slash and seven home runs in his last 13 games (12 starts), and his price is low enough to make him an auto-play against the Atlanta rookie. Joc Pederson spikes even higher on the boom-or-bust scale, and though he has hit so poorly in recent weeks (.179/.258/.232 in his last 15 games) as to render his value nearly worthless, the Dodger rookie is priced to sell and could go off at any time. The switch-hitting Grandal has also hit right-handers far better in his career to date, though the foul tip that knocked him from yesterday's game and sent him for X-rays could very well shelve him for today's game and grant Wisler a bit of a reprieve. Wisler has far too short a track record to trust the above splits for any predictive power, but his repertoire is heavy on fastballs and sliders and low on weapons that can combat hitters who carry a hefty platoon advantage.

Avoid: LHB's Lucas Duda ($3600, -264 OPS and -.084 ISO vs. LHP) and Curtis Granderson OF ($3400 facing LHP Gio Gonzalez ($8100, +.004 OPS and +.013 ISO vs. LHB)

The prices are very reasonable and name-value alone could cause some managers' eyes to drift in this direction, but there are better treasures to be found elsewhere. The platoon avoidance in this case has nothing to do with Gio – who has a very slight reverse split in his career – and everything to do with the lefty bats of the Mets. Duda and Granderson fall to pieces when there's a southpaw on the hill, and with right-handed bats David Wright and Travis d'Arnaud on the shelf with injuries, there is little on the Mets roster to stand in the way of a left-handed pitcher. For his part, Gonzalez has had a rough season, with the worst ratios that he has mustered since 2010, but a solid run over his previous three starts encourages optimism.

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Details ($3 Entry):

  • Baseball Prospectus Private Daily Fantasy League
  • Starts tonight
  • Salary Cap Style Drafting. $50,000 to select 10: 8 fielders and 2 pitchers
  • Roster Format: 2 pitchers, 1 C, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 SS and 3 OF

Steals

Target: Lorenzo Cain OF ($5100, 18-of-21 SB) and Jarrod Dyson OF ($2900, 12-of-13 SB) facing RHP A.J. Burnett ($9900, opponents 19-of-27 SB).

Burnett has been able to help catch an acceptable percentage of opposing base thieves, but the regularity with which they take off (third-most stolen base attempts in baseball) reflects his relative struggles in keeping the base-line traffic under control. The Royals have a small-ball reputation and yet Cain has been the only consistent threat to steal bases this season, whereas Dyson's stock recently soared as he replaced the injured Alex Gordon in the KC outfield. There will be a stark contrast offered on the same field in terms of keeping baserunners chained to the bag, with the thievery-prone Burnett on one side and the steal-proof Yordano Ventura on the other.

Avoid: Gregory Polanco OF ($3600, 17-of-24 SB this season), Starling Marte OF ($4300, 17-for-24 SB), and Andrew McCutchen OF ($4600, 5-of-7 SB) facing RHP Yordano Ventura ($5900, opponents 1-of-4 SB)

Opposing thieves are just two-for-six on steal attempts in the career of Yordano Ventura, and though the sophomore hurler might be enduring some growing pains this season, his ability to completely shutdown the running game has remained intact. The “avoid” tag in this case is specific to stolen bases, especially impacting speed-first players like Polanco, while batters such as McCutchen and Marte that bring other skills to the plate may well be worth their salaries regardless of performance on the basepaths. This factor is most apparent in the case of Cutch, who has been tame on the bases this season but whose skills with the stick have been in full force since his April hiccup.

Price

Target: RHB's Hanley Ramirez SS/OF ($4000, +61 OPS and +.028 ISO vs. LHP), Dustin Pedroia 2B ($3700, +57 OPS and +.012 ISO vs. LHP), and Mookie Betts OF ($4000, -48 OPS and -.022 ISO vs. LHP) against LHP Andrew Heaney ($8400, +202 OPS and +.144 ISO vs. RHB)

The splits aren't bold enough to stick these hitters in the platoon section (Betts even has a slight reverse split), but the price points are so low – particularly on a day with more fake money available to spend on bats – that stacking Red Sox looks like a value play regardless of one's belief in Heaney's performance through four starts in the bigs. The rookie hurler has already muted the loud bats of the Blue Jays and overcome the thin air of Denver, rapidly escalating his price tag (which has shot up $2100 on Draft Kings in just his last two starts), and the fact that the Sox were shutout in consecutive games against the Angels over the weekend might be depressing their salaries. The sample is too small to read anything into it, but Heaney's splits currently stand out more than any of the bats. Hanley in particular has a price that is too low to pass at the weak position of shortstop, especially considering his curious $900 drop over the weekend; expect Ramirez to be widely owned tonight.

Avoid: RHP A.J. Burnett ($9900) against the Kansas City Royals

Burnett is having an undeniably-excellent season, but he could have a tough time crossing the Royal hurdle tonight. The Royals are well-stocked to punish right-handers (ISO is .024 higher against northpaws), and their batters' collective proclivity towards contact combines with Burnett's own recent strikeout drought to limit his upside in the K department. Meanwhile, Burnett's price tag has soared to heights near the $10k threshold, upping the ante of his performance needed to justify such a lofty salary.

***

Resources used for this article:

Baseball Prospectus Stats and Player Cards

Draft Kings player prices

Brooks Baseball

Baseball-Reference

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