Fantasy Players to Target: Our Top Trade Targets

The fantasy team here at Baseball Prospectus has each selected one player they have their eye on targeting for the second half in trades. Some are more expensive to acquire than others, but they are on this list because their current market value is lower than their expected value the remainder of the way. Here are those players, in alphabetical order:

Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Cleveland Indians

Let's be clear up front—you shouldn't target Carrasco if what you need is a sturdy mid-tier starter to pad your IP stats and bolster your ERA and WHIP. He's not a particularly safe option. But if you're looking for obtainable upside that won't cost you an arm and a leg in standard leagues, I think Carrasco fits the bill. The whole "let's just look at his FIP/BABIP" angle is overplayed, but when the disparity between standard and advanced metrics is as stark as it is with Carrasco, it warrants a look. He has a 4.07 ERA despite a 2.74 FIP and 3.73 DRA, and that .339 BABIP is a big part of the reason why. We know Cleveland's defense is better thanks to Francisco Lindor and Gio Urshela, and we know a .339 BABIP is well below Carrasco's career average of .319, so we can comfortably expect some positive regression. The right-hander is also giving up more homers than he usually does—yes, he's homer-prone, but he's back at 11.0 percent after hovering around 8 percent between 2013 and 2014. Carrasco is walking fewer and striking out more batters than ever, he plays for a team that should be decent in the second half and he's still just 28. Beware the homers and his injury history, but if you want to gamble on a starter with No. 1 upside whom you can probably get for a No. 3 starter price, Carrasco is your dude. —Ben Carsley

Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays

In many ways, Encarnacion has been a quality fantasy option, slugging 18 home runs, driving in 54 runs, and walking 11.5 percent of the time. His .233 batting average, however, has dragged down his overall fantasy value. He’s the 18th-ranked fantasy first baseman through the first half—a designation that is undoubtedly disappointing, given his first-round price tag prior to the season. Fantasy owners should expect that ranking to rise as his .231 BABIP corrects itself in the second half. While his average batted-ball velocity ranks 109th among hitters with at least 100 balls in play, he continues to mash the baseball when it’s put in the air, as shown by his 17.0 percent HR/FB rate. The trick will be rectifying a 9.8 percent swinging-strike rate, which is his highest whiff rate since 2007. If he does make more contact and because his BABIP is already far below his career norms, his batting average should increase in the second half. If it doesn’t, though, the downside is a guy who will offer 10+ homers in the second half with ample runs scored and RBI. It’s a relatively safe play, and if you can swing a bit of a hit in the batting-average category, it has plenty of upside for the counting stats. —J.P. Breen

Nate Karns, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays

Karns has quietly come into his own as one of the better pitchers in the American League over the past month, and he's done it while surviving an unruly .363 BABIP over his past six starts. He's added about a mile-and-a-half per hour of separation between his fastball and change during that span, and he's exponentially increased his deployment of the latter pitch. The more he's thrown it, the more swings he's generated, and with more swings have come more swings and misses (and weaker contact on the ones that haven't been missed). With another legit out pitch among his secondaries, Karns has evolved into a legitimate SP3 contender for the second half, but the topline numbers haven't quite caught up yet. And after pushing 160 innings last year he should be fine to jump into the 190 range without issue, limiting the risk of a preemptive shutdown. Add in the lack of pedigree, and he offers one of the better opportunities to secure a potentially premium arm on the relative cheap. —Wilson Karaman

Drew Hutchison, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

So your pitching staff needs some help, but you don’t want to trade any of your most valuable pieces to address that need. What if I told you there’s someone with a 5.33 ERA you should be targeting? Better yet, this same pitcher has a career 4.75 ERA. What I’m saying is, Drew Hutchison’s value shouldn’t be too high right now. For all of his struggles and the fact that he feels like he’s been around forever, Hutchison is still just 24 years old. He’s been able to rack up strikeouts at a high rate over the last two years, setting down nearly a batter an inning. This has all been done while also keeping his walks to a minimum. Despite the poor ERA, he has been a top-60 SP by FIP and a top-40 one by cFIP.

It’s not to say there is no risk here. His DRA says he’s been every bit as bad as the ERA says he’s been. There’s also enough data to justify worrying his numbers won’t come down to match his peripherals. With that being said, even if he still keeps up with the clunkers, Hutchison can help in a few areas. As mentioned above, he can help in strikeouts as he finished the first half with the 45th most in baseball. He’s also fortunate enough to play on a team with the best offense in baseball. The Blue Jays are good enough to get him some wins even during his poor outings. Some BABIP regression will do wonders for his WHIP as well. Hutchison shouldn’t cost a ton on the trade market, but he brings a solid base in a few categories with huge upside in the second half. He’s not going to anchor your staff, but he has the potential to be the missing piece on a contending team, and that is worth a modest price. —Matt Collins

Jung-Ho Kang, SS/3B, Pittsburgh Pirates

When the South Korean rookie sensation isn’t dancing to “Gangnam Style” during rain delays, he’s compiled a robust .268/.348/.384 first half slash line in the Steel City. His tremendous raw power hasn’t translated as advertised (he’s hit just four home runs), but that’s due in large part to a Mauer-esque 54% ground ball rate. A slight uptick in fly balls going forward, combined with his recent surge in batted ball exit velocity, could set Kang up for a second half power outburst.

The most underrated stat in an NL-only league is plate appearances. With Josh Harrison sidelined for the next two months after thumb surgery, Kang (who is shortstop-eligible) is in line for a boatload of them as the Pirates everyday option at the hot corner. Since being inserted into the lineup permanently last week, he’s slashing a stellar .346/.452/.538. He isn’t a budding superstar, but given everyday at-bats (and his power potential), he’s one of the most intriguing trade targets at a razor-thin position right now. —George Bissell

Leonys Martin, OF, Texas Rangers

Martin has been labeled as a disappointment by many in the fantasy community, but his five home runs, 23 runs, 24 RBI, 13 steals across 77 games would translate into a fairly decent line across a full season. The only marker in Martin’s line that is out of line with his career numbers is his BABIP. His batted-ball data does skew a little bit more toward some softer hit balls in 2015, but it isn’t so crazy that it indicates a collapse that is justified. Martin still has the potential to be a five-category contributor, and even if he “only” hits .250 or .260 the rest of the way, he could easily put up a 10 home run, 25 stolen base pace down the stretch. Much of Martin’s depressed line is based on fluky bad numbers at home and against right-handed pitching. The perception of Martin having a “bad” season enhances his trade value a great deal if you are looking for a boost via trade, and he makes for a nice addition in standard mixed leagues if he was dropped. —Mike Gianella

Victor Martinez, 1B/DH, Detroit Tigers

We're well aware at this point that how players perform to start the year has something of an anchoring effect on how we view them from that point forward. The opportunity to submarine season-long numbers with a bad two months is going to affect us, as we can't possible look at month-to-month numbers for every player, and even if we did, we're dealing with small samples and variance. All of this is to say that Victor Martinez batted .216/.308/.270 the first six weeks of the season while playing on one leg. Since a month-long hiatus, Martinez has returned to form, batting .337/.370/.558 in June and July, belting four of his five home runs. This isn't advanced, deep, or under-the-radar. It's a player with a massive track record of success whose early, extended struggles have some people mis-evaluating the underlying skillset. You can use that to your advantage. —Craig Goldstein

Kendrys Morales, 1B/DH, Kansas City Royals

In 2014, Morales lost spring training and the beginning of the season to not accepting the qualifying offer and holding out for more moneys elsewhere. When he did return to game action he was, not unsurprisingly, terrible; he hit more grounders and infield pop ups, which led to a .244 BABIP and a .218 AVG. This offseason, Morales signed a normal contract like a normal free agent, and consequently got his normal spring training and all that goes with it. Not unsurprisingly, the still-only-32-year-old Morales, is back to his old strikeout and walk rates, batted ball profile, above-average AVG, and solid home-run production. Furthermore, he is hitting in the middle of a pretty good lineup and that has brought along some nice counting stats. That said, Morales is not exciting and is thus potentially available in your league. Barring an ill-fated enthusiastic walk-off home run celebration or other injury, Morales looks like a safe bet to continue producing at his usual rate, and he might not cost a premium. I, for one, will put him in the trade target bucket (I might even look to trade a better first baseman or corner infielder and worse pitcher for Morales and a better pitcher, if that is what I needed). — Jeff Quinton

Yasiel Puig, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

Yasiel Puig was the 23rd player off the board this spring according to NFBC ADP, and given that draft position, it’s hard not to call him one of 2015’s biggest disappointments. Sure, much of his underwhelming line is due to a month and a half spent on the disabled list with a balky hamstring but the four home runs and one steal in 43 healthy games is a far cry what was expected of the 24-year-old presumptive leap-maker. Puig has been far more aggressive at the plate this year than he was in 2014 but has managed to up his contact rate and keep his walk and strikeout rates stable.

Putting aside the metrics, there are simply very few players in baseball that have Puig’s ceiling and players of his caliber often slam shut a cracked window just as suddenly as they opened it. Sometimes leagues are won by making smart, small investments in undervalued players on the margins and sometimes they’re won by adding a stick of dynamite to your lineup. Play up the injury, the tepid production, a decline in his batted-ball distance, the alleged off-field distractions, the hand-wringing about his position in the batting order, or—if you have to—just pay up. —Greg Wellemeyer

Jose Quintana, LHP, Chicago White Sox

After a miserable month of April, which saw Quintana get knocked around for sixteen earned runs in 22 innings pitched across four starts, many owners soured on the White Sox lefty. Quintana has bounced back nicely over his next fourteen starts, striking out 85 in 92 2/3 innings and posting a 2.93 ERA. Quintana has pitched like he did last season, where his FIP of 2.81 compared favorably to his more heralded left-handed rotation mate, who posted a 2.57 FIP mark during the 2014 season. Quintana is a particularly strong target in leagues that use quality starts as a category, as he’s posted nine straight quality performances and has dazzled in his last four starts –not issuing a walk and striking out 28 over 27 1/3 innings. —J.J. Jansons

Alexei Ramirez, SS, Chicago White Sox

There really is not much to say about Ramirez’s first half stat line other than it was simply awful. The usual steady fantasy performer at the shortstop position got off to a terrible start to begin 2015, putting up a dreadful fantasy line of .209/.247/.313 with no home runs and no stolen bases over the first month of the season. Unfortunately, the former All-Star was unable to get back on track as he struggled through the next two months of the season and was sitting with a .212 AVG with only two home runs, 19 runs scored and just eight steals through June. While his fantasy owners are beside themselves, there is good reason to believe Ramirez will turn things around and have a productive second half of the season. I know those who drafted him early or plunked down a sizeable amount of their auction budget on Ramirez are certainly looking for some optimism, understandably.

Why am I optimistic? Well, while Ramirez has always hovered around the league average in BABIP over his career, this year he has seen that BABIP plummet to 50 points below is career averages, despite a nice spike in his LD rates (26%). We have seen some of this start to normalize since the calendar flipped to July, as Ramirez began the month with a seven game hitting streak and is slashing .324/.361/.382 over 37 PA’s this month with a .333 BABIP raising his season average by 12 points. His contact rates have remained near his career norms, so the metrics do suggest this career .273 hitter currently hitting .224 midway through the season could be the result of being a tad unlucky thus far. With that said, to temper expectations, I would not predict a big power spike in the second half, as his 15 HR’s a season ago seemed to be a bit fortuitous as he had one of the lowest average home run distance for players with 15 bombs or more a season ago. However, his current 1.7 HR/FB% is way below his career average so I would expect him to improve on his current home run total of two the rest of the way.

At the end of the day, you need to look at the résumé of the player when basing your fantasy judgment in terms of making a trade. Ramirez has been a fantasy stalwart at shortstop for the past eight seasons – that is not deniable. In fact, of the current shortstops, in the past three seasons in mono 5×5 league formats, Ramirez’s $66 fantasy dollars earned is third overall, only behind Ian Desmond ($81) and Jose Reyes ($70). Ramirez is still running this season as evident by his 10 stolen bags in the first half, and his 77% SB success rate this season likely means more steals are on the horizon. If you want to catch a fellow owner sleeping and you need help at MI, make an offer for Ramirez now while his value is still low. —Keith Cromer

Christian Yelich, OF, Miami Marlins

The logic behind this one is pretty simple, but it’s worth driving home a particular point that often gets overlooked when seeking out “buy low” candidates—and that’s in quotes because the term is overused and often useless. Yelich has hit .305/.397/.435 with three homers, four steals and 23 runs scored since June 1^st. He’s been consistently hitting in either the no. 2 or no. 3 spot in the lineup for the last four weeks. You, the reader, now knows this. You know who else knows this? The person in your league who owns Christian Yelich. Sort of highlights how helpful it is to just throw out “Player X on a hot streak” as a trade target, huh? But there’s more here than just a recital of his recent fantasy numbers. The herniated disc at the beginning of the season was a reason to point to for his poor start, and what a poor start it was. He had an 81.3 percent ground ball rate in April. Eighty-one point three!

However, as the weather has warmed, Yelich’s raw stats are not the only ones improving. His contact rate showed vast improvement in June and then again in July, his Isolated Power has improved with each month of the season, and a recent spike in walk rate has finally drawn him in line with his 2014 rate. Those are all positive signs. But the number that may make him an even better target than that is 23: his age. Targeting younger hitters for a stretch run is often a better use of resources (assuming similar cost) than older players, as it’s tough on veteran legs in August and September. It’s a long season. Oh, to be young again. —Bret Sayre