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There were a couple of monster games yesterday, rewarding those who stacked Orioles or Nationals as those two clubs scored 35 runs between them. Such is the risk/reward associated with stacking strategies, as miscalling a potential blow-up can end a lineup but a good call holds the potential to reap huge rewards.

The Bats

Jhonny Peralta, SS ($4200)

vs. LHP: .262/.343/.454 in 1814 PA

vs. RHP: .271/.328/.421 in 4757 PA

The 33-year old Peralta has been maintaining his effort to dispel the typical aging curve, with a .312/.373/.506 line, with the slugging percentage and OPS both stat representing the highest such marks that Peralta has posted since his age-23 season. The Cardinals are a balanced ballclub that relies less on standout individuals, but Peralta has nonetheless been the anchor to an offense that has endured injuries (Matt Holliday, Matt Adams), age-related decline (Yadier Molina), and poor performance (Jason Heyward). The Cards have appreciated Peralta's pop since Spring, as the shortstop has held down the middle of the St. Louis batting order for much of the season, getting penciled into the number three, four, or five spot in the order for 61 of his 62 games started this season.

Join Doug in playing Baseball Prospectus Beat the Expert League on Draft Kings – click here for tournament lobby.

Details ($3 Entry):

  • Baseball Prospectus Private Daily Fantasy League
  • Starts tonight
  • Salary Cap Style Drafting. $50,000 to select 10: 8 fielders and 2 pitchers
  • Roster Format: 2 pitchers, 1 C, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 SS and 3 OF

Chase Headley, 3B ($3900)

vs. LHP: .253/.318/.399 in 1246 PA

vs. RHP: .269/.355/.409 in 2958 PA

It seems that more than half of the baseball universe saw Headley's power spike of the second half of 2012 to be a fluke, but even the critics had to admit that they never saw that type of power shining through at any point of his career. Getting out of Petco Park and into the short-porch haven of new Yankee Stadium was supposed to let that part of his game emerge, but Headley has been a worse hitter in pinstripes than he was even outside of the spike season. His current OPS of 659 is more than 40 points lower than his marks from any previous season, and now his on-base skills have cratered along with his power, including a sub-.300 OBP that likely has the Yankees regretting the $52 million that they gave the third baseman over the off-season. The switch-hitter has favored right-handers in his career, giving him the slightest boost against Marlins' starter Jose Urena, but the sketchy track record of Headley means that the cap room is probably better spent elsewhere.

David Peralta, OF ($3800)

vs. LHP: .175/.231/.237 in 104 PA

vs. RHP: .301/.343/.499 in 418 PA

The lefty-swinging David Peralta has been worthless in his small sample against southpaws, and the Diamondbacks play him accordingly, so there is a strong likelihood that he will be on the bench against Hector Santiago to start tonight's game. There's a chance that Arizona – which is suddenly pressed in the outfield in the wake of the Mark Trumbo trade and Ender Inciarte's trip to the disabled list – will be forced to insert Peralta into the lineup, but I would avoid using his services no matter where in the order he finds himself against the Angels.

The Arms

Felix Hernandez, SEA vs. SF ($10300)

June has been brutal for Hernandez, who is coming off the worst outing of career, a start in which he recorded just one out while giving up eight runs to the suddenly-intimidating Astros. He is also just a couple of games removed from a seven-run blowup at the hands of the Yankees (who seem to have bludgeoned every ace in the AL this season), and the warning levels are raised by a 7.7-percent walk rate that is Hernandez's highest since 2008. The big issue is that he has been missing regularly to the arm-side, allowing batters to hone in on a narrow range of possible locations. His timing is slightly off, and it will be interesting to see if he exaggerates the coil into max leg lift in an attempt to slow down his time to the plate, thus giving his arm a chance to catch up and reach full extension at release point.

Felix carried a 1.91 ERA at the end of May, but that mark has been inflated by nearly a run and a half since the calendar flipped to June. The $10,300 price tag is his lowest on it's been for Hernandez on Draft Kings so far this season, and though there are reasons to doubt his performance more than usual, the fact that DFS players will likely fade away from King Felix will increase the impact of a dominant start should he right the ship.

John Danks, CHW vs. PIT ($5400)

If salary cap restrictions keep your hands out of the Coors Field bin, then there are worse places to look for stacking purposes than the Pirates lineup tonight against Danks. The White Sox lefty has been homer-prone throughout his career, including 10 jacks allowed in 68.0 innings this season, and he hasn't posted an ERA under 4.74 in the past four years. The exorbitant hit rate – which currently stands at 11.0 hits per nine innings – is bound to go down, but he doesn't have that far to fall before reaching the 9.6 safeties-per-nine that he averaged from 2011-12, and his peripheral stats have already fallen in line with expectations.

Recency Bias

Cameron Maybin, OF ($4100)

Maybin has quietly been one of the most productive players in the fantasy game over the past couple of weeks, getting on base (.413 OBP in his last 13 games) and swiping bags while hitting in the top two spots of the Atlanta order. He has even gone so far as to drive in 13 runs over his past 15 ballgames, and his slash line on the season curently stands at a 4obust .293/.364/.403 with 11 extra-base hits and 11 steals in 14 attempts. Health has long been the issue with Maybin, so the Braves will hold their collective breath that he can stay in the lineup, but the Padres have to be chapped that the man they brought in to replace Maybin, Wil Myers, is currently on the DL with a busted wrist that could impact him throughout the rest of the season – even with a healthy wrist, Myers had an OPS that was just 21 points higher than that of Maybin.

The 28-year old Maybin still has some upside left in the tank, and injuries have stood in the way of his development throughout his career. The Braves are playing out the string with an eye toward future seasons, so they can afford to endure any rough patches from Maybin while evaluating whether he is a potential part of the next winning ballclub in Atlanta, or just a commodity to be traded at the first sign of success.

Weather

  • The biggest concern could be out in DC, where reports differ on the likelihood of a thunderstorm disrupting the TB-WAS game – check here for updates

  • The morning will be saturated with rain in Cincinnati and scattered thunderstorms could threaten at least the start time for tonight's tilt between the Tigers and Reds – check here for updates

  • There are some midday thunderstorms in Minneapolis that should clear before the STL-MIN game – check here for updates

***

Resources used for this article:

Baseball Prospectus Stats and Player Cards

Draft Kings player prices

Brooks Baseball

Baseball-Reference

www.Weather.com

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