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I like to take a three-pronged approach to pitcher evaluation, following the process-outcome train through stations of mechanics, stuff, and stats. The numbers steal the focus during fantasy draft season, but my personal rankings are heavily influenced by the other two prongs of the trident. Mechanics will sway me (big surprise), but a pitcher's delivery typically needs to be paired with great stuff to cause a real boost in the ranks, and sometimes a pitcher is one small piece away from making that next leap in performance.

These additional layers of a hurler's profile help to further differentiate the pitcher population. We can always slice up the group based on a category like ERA or strikeouts, while modern resources such as www.Brooksbaseball.net allow us to objectively gauge the details of a pitcher's stuff, allowing us to further stratify the cohort. The eye test comes into play with stuff, and watching ballgames is the key to the third prong: pitching mechanics. The Mechanical Report Cards that I use at BP (and for the annual Starting Pitcher Guide) are a blueprint for the physical foundation of a pitcher's performance. Knowing that a pitcher has a power delivery with big torque but timing that can get out of whack might support the tale that is told by his upper-90s velocity and high walk rates, and yet the most interesting stuff is when there is conflict in the details.

I like to be as open-handed as possible, whether detailing a visual rubric for the mechanical report cards or auditing those reports in order to better understand my own biases. So it seems natural to take a deeper look at my rankings for the Top 125 fantasy pitchers, particularly those starting arms that I had ranked outside the fantasy consensus according to Average Draft Position (ADP). The three-year window of my Top 125 list will have some obvious disparities from the single-year ADP list, particularly with respect to prospects and injury cases, so I will put those players aside and focus on those who retain value in a single-year timeframe. Luckily, I wrote down the players' ADP's at the time that I wrote the articles (around February 22), so I can make some direct comparisons to what the player values were at the time that the Top 125 list was compiled.

Let's start with the players that received a boost in my rankings, focusing on those pitchers that I slotted in the top 50 among starting pitchers. We'll dissect the other end of the spectrum next week.

Pitcher

DT Rank

ADP

Diff

Kevin Gausman

39

69

+30

Andrew Cashner

17

36

+19

The biggest jump in my rankings belonged to Kevin Gausman, who hurtled 30 spots from his late-February ADP and into the top 40. Part of the ascension is due to a combination of his youth, the three-year window, and anticipated improvement that could take some time to come to fruition. Even with those caveats, however, I would say that I am significantly above the norm when it comes to projecting his value for this season. So why am I such a fan? I see a pitcher with B grade mechanics (a big compliment), including plus marks in both power categories and burgeoning stability. His average fastball clocks in at 95.8 mph, good enough for eighth in MLB among pitchers with 500 or more four-seamers last season, and his off-speed stuff can be absolutely filthy at times. There is obviously some significant projection built into this ranking, and Gausman has the key ingredients to make good on that projection.

There are no age-related excuses for the 28-year-old Cashner, but I do think that the next three years will represent a very strong peak to his career, so the extended timeframe played a minor role. Cashner's ranking raised the most eyebrows, and his placement is a reflection of a skill set that has been improving in all of the necessary areas for the last couple of years, and which I expect to continue developing over the next few seasons. His velocity is right there with Gausman, and though Cashner's shoulder has flared up in the past, he has also returned without sacrificing pitch-speed (which is typically compromised with shoulder woes). His sinker has absolutely ridiculous movement while averaging close to 95 mph, with more arm-side run on the average sink than there is on his changeup. Part of that issue is the change itself, and the secondaries will need some honing in order for Cash to reach ceiling. Mechanically, Cashner has molded his delivery to a level of B+ efficiency, including 70-grade torque and stability scores that continue to rise. The modest K rate of the past two years has certainly depressed his value, but he has also trimmed the walks to address the weakest part of his statistical profile. I expect his K rate to rise this season, coming closer to his minor-league mark of 22.5 percent.

Pitcher

DT Rank

ADP

Diff

Anibal Sanchez

36

46

+10

Danny Salazar

47

57

+10

At first glance, I was a bit surprised by Anibal Sanchez's placement on this list, as both his stuff and mechanics are relatively modest when compared to the players above him. I like his three-pitch mix as well as his B- delivery, but nothing really stands out to me with his repertoire or mechanics. I think the disparity is related to health concerns, as much of the anti-Anibal lobbying has focused on his failure to ever hit 200 innings due to injuries that have cut into his seasons. The 200-inning issue is true, but he also cleared 180 frames in three consecutive seasons from 2011-2013, including back-to-back years over 195 innings. It makes me wonder how much the perception would change if he had made just one additional start in '12 and '13, clearing the magical 200-inning barrier.

Salazar gets an extra bump on this list due to his past inconsistency and the expectation that he will improve over the next few seasons, so at least part of the ranking is based on his relative age and experience. He was extremely inconsistent last season with both mechanics and stuff, and that inconsistency helps to feed the expectation that 2015 could be the worst of the next three seasons. That said, his upside is ridiculous and he possesses the athleticism to balance things out quickly. His stability suffered at the beginning of 2014, but his ability to make adjustments (after being sent down to the minors) bodes well for his future development. I gave his mechanics a B after the 2013 season, dropping to a B- due to last season's setbacks, but the skill set is still there to convert his 95.7 mph fastball and trap-door split into deadly weapons.

Pitcher

DT Rank

ADP

Diff

Gerrit Cole

13

21

+8

Gio Gonzalez

21

29

+8

Michael Wacha

32

40

+8

Gerrit Cole represents the point in this list where the connection between stats, stuff, and mechanics become apparent in the players that boost up my rankings. Projecting improvement for Cole is not out of the ordinary, and in fact, the overzealous expectations of the fantasy world caused him to be over-valued a touch going into 2014, but the disappointment that stemmed from said expectations have made him a great value this season. He quietly upped his mechanics last year from an already impressive B+ grade, joining just nine other players (among 255 starting pitchers in the SP Guide) that registered an overall grade of A- or better. Cole achieved near-elite grades in three of the baseline categories, and he made great improvements to bring the one weak link in his kinetic chain (momentum) up to league-average levels. His velocity is off the chart, averaging 96.7 mph on his four-seam and having previously thrown a triple-digit two-seamer, in addition to a pair of excellent breaking pitches that he will throw in any count.

Gio Gonzalez may not measure up to the Cole/Cashner/Gausman cohort on the velocity scale, but his mechanics already crossed the threshold into A- territory. His pitch-speed is still a tick above average, and the sweeping curveball is an out pitch that he has been able to bury with increasing regularity. Gio's walk rate has greatly improved from his Oakland days, he has five consecutive years of low hit rates and few homers allowed, and he has cleared 195 innings in four of the past five seasons. I realize that last season's 158 2/3 frames was a low point, but my feel is that the fantasy crowd is over-reacting to a slight back-step from a player with a proven track record.

We'll wrap-up with Wacha, who is an interesting case altogether. I felt that he was over-rated a year ago, going very high in drafts despite a two-pitch repertoire and less than 65 innings of big-league ball under his belt. So what happened? He had a solid season in terms of ratios, albeit with a recession to his K rate, but an injury cut short his campaign. Wacha also addressed his biggest arsenal weakness—the lack of a breaking ball—by introducing both a cutter and a curve to his repertoire in 2014. Some might be scared off by the injury, but the fact that he suffered a fractured scapula (rather than a muscular issue) eases some of the worry. I'm not even that big on his mechanics (C+ grade), but his development last season leaves me optimistic about his performance in 2015.

Thank you for reading

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johnnycuff
3/27
The Orioles must not have read this article, since it looks like they're moving Gausman to the bullpen. My guess is they're sticking him there to keep his innings down until later in the season, like the Braves did with Alex Wood last year.
RussHaigis
3/27
I am saddened by this Gausman travesty. It doesn't sound like the O's are 100% set on moving him to the bullpen, but the mere fact they suggested it makes me think they've already decided it will happen that way.
boatman44
3/27
I feel the O'S have no idea how to use or handle any decent pitcher they have, as Arrieta, Hammel,Matusz,Bundy and to a lesser extent Hunter Harvey, with his injury, proves. I am not at all surprised with whatever they do with Gausman.
ErikBFlom
3/27
I wonder if this is supposed to be motivation to solidify that third pitch.
timber
3/27
Danny Salazar has been sent to the minors again.
tombores99
3/27
We will see what the O's do with Gausman, as most of what I've heard is speculation at this point, but suffice to say that I think it would be a huge mistake to give those innings to Ubaldo instead.

Rough news on Salazar, as well, as the inconsistency that chased him in 2014 appears to have followed him into this season. I stick by the assessment and still like him long-term, but as mentioned in the article, the issue of consistency clouds his 2015 value.

Such is the risk of ranking in February, before ST games have been played.
chapmantime
3/28
Salazar does seem like he's a long term play. I actually got to see his last ST start against the Reds, and while the stuff looked as cusp as eve, he just caught a lot of white, and was punished accordingly.

Michal Lorenzen looked as interesting as he did last year, and there's a bit of a Nate Eovaldi vibe with the big FB/breaker combo, nascent change, GB generation and lack of whiff.
Shauntell
3/27
Thanks for the timely article, was hesitating on keeping Cashner in my soon-to-be dynasty league, you helped make the decision easier.