CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe
<< Previous Article
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (12/12)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Jos... (12/11)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: The... (12/16)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (12/12)

December 12, 2014

Fantasy Freestyle

Shortening Your Dynasty Rebuild

by J.P. Breen

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Dynasty leagues with extensive minor-league rosters have become more popular in recent years. It’s one of the greatest ways to keep all owners engaged throughout the season, as the action never quits. However, such intensive and deep leagues can be intimidating for first-time owners. For example, I joined my first dynasty league in 2014, and it wasn’t with a bunch of amateurs. I jumped into the deep end and participated in TDGX—a 20-team, 40-man roster dynasty league with fantasy experts from across the internet baseball landscape.

It was my first dynasty draft and my first attempt at fielding my own team. Needless to say, it didn’t go smoothly. I made rookie mistakes in the draft. Grabbing elite prospects is important because the league includes a 10-man minor-league roster, but I erred and drafted prospects too early. That made my big-league roster far too shallow.

Due to mistakes in the draft, injuries to key players, and severe underperformance in April, I fell out of legitimate contention. I recognized the flaws in my approach and decided to engage in a rebuild. After all, it’s not a 10-team league. If you fall out of contention, you have 18-to-19 teams to jump to vie for a pennant.

I want to talk about the best way to engage in a complete rebuild. To do this, I will utilize my TDGX squad, as I believe it offers a concrete way to visualize something rather theoretical. My rebuild hasn’t gone perfectly; however, the goal isn’t just to rebuild the roster. It’s to do it as quickly as possible. Engaging in a three-or-four year rebuild in dynasty leagues isn’t enjoyable. The end-goal is to fast forward what should take several years into a season or two.

First, here is the flawed roster with which I began the season:

Pos.

Player

Pos.

Player

C

Wilin Rosario

SS

Javier Baez

1B

Chris Carter

3B

Joey Gallo

2B

Kolten Wong

OF

Josh Bell

SS

Jose Reyes

2B

Tommy La Stella

3B

David Freese

SP

Jesse Biddle

MI

Zack Cozart

SP

Jenrry Mejia

CI

Ryan Raburn

OF

Domingo Santana

OF

Carlos Gonzalez

SP

Vincent Velazquez

OF

Wil Myers

SP

Brandon McCarthy

OF

Adam Eaton

RP

Heath Hembree

OF

Marcell Ozuna

RP

Will Smith

OF

Chris Denorfia

SP

Jimmy Nelson

U

Henry Urrutia

SS

Eduardo Nunez

U

John Jaso

OF

Daniel Fields

P

Homer Bailey

SP

Bobby Wahl

P

Gio Gonzalez

1B

Ronald Guzman

P

Kevin Gausman

RP

Dane De La Rosa

P

Francisco Liriano

P

Andrew Heaney

P

Bobby Parnell

P

Rex Brothers

P

Ricky Nolasco

P

Wade Miley

It’s not difficult to see what happened. Bobby Parnell, Wil Myers, and Jose Reyes hit the DL early. Carlos Gonzalez experienced a down year, as did Homer Bailey and Gio Gonzalez. I banked on Rex Brothers assuming the closer’s role, and it belly-flopped. Most of all, though, I invested heavily into guys who didn’t begin the year in the big leagues, such as Javier Baez, Kevin Gausman, Andrew Heaney, Joey Gallo, etc. It just put me at a disadvantage.

In short, my team had no chance to compete in 2014, so let’s talk about some suggestions to put your dynasty league rebuild into hyperdrive.

CORNER THE HIGH-MINORS MARKET
When rebuilding in a deep, 20-team dynasty league, it’s important to remember two things: (1) you don’t want A-ball prospects who may not have an impact in the majors for three or four years, and (2) only a small number of worthwhile prospects in the high minors exist.

This means you have to sell early. You do not want to compete with other owners who are trying to rebuild, so if you can sell early in the year, you have your pick of the litter. You can target which high-minors prospects to buy. For example, I traded Carlos Gonzalez for Jon Singleton, Oswaldo Arcia, Luis Sardinas, Trevor Bauer, and a second-round draft pick. While my return carried inherent risk and lacked upside, my goal was to obtain numerous high-minors players.

That leads me into the second reason why owners want to sell early and amass depth in the high minors. Once other owners decide to sell in June and July, they are forced to either trade for A-ball players—which increases the length of their rebuild—or they have to come to you. This puts you in a position to selectively sell from your amassed depth and grab players who can help immediately. After I made a flurry of trades in late-April and May, I ended up trading for guys like Ian Kinsler, Ian Desmond, and Alex Wood. It’s about selectively choosing your spots to make upgrades from places of depth—but you can’t trade from depth that you don’t have.

Don’t lull yourself into rebuilding through Low-A and rookie-ball talent. You’re just resigning yourself to a half-decade rebuild. Target the high minors, do it early, and you’ll set yourself on the path to competing in just a year or two.

TARGET INJURED PLAYERS
Perhaps this seems obvious, but players with significant injuries have little appeal to fantasy owners who are competing for a league championship. This leads to discrepancies in value. Of course, it must be noted that targeting injured players isn’t all sunshine and roses. You’re paying for broken property, and there’s a legitimate chance it never materializes.

For example, I grabbed Matt Wieters, Jarrod Parker, and Martin Perez. They all came extremely cheap; however, Parker is on his second Tommy John surgery. Perez won’t be available until mid-2015. And Wieters could experience a severe power outage as he attempts to return from elbow surgery. I’m betting on upside. If they can return to their prior form, I acquired young mid-rotation starters and a top-10 catcher for pennies on the dollar.

The added benefit is that injured players can be stashed on the DL, which increases the possible number of players on your roster. TDGX has three DL spots, which allowed me to carry Wieters, Parker, and Perez without impacting my overall 40-man roster. That’s crucial for amassing depth and increases your flexibility throughout the year.

FOCUS ON POSITION PLAYERS
Here’s the one message that every rebuilding owner sent the team over the summer: “Veterans available for young bats.”

Everyone desperately wanted young position players. Part of that is due to the roster distribution of 14-position-player starters and 9-pitching starters. The other aspect is that pitching has become more readily available due to the decreased offensive environment, and it seems that more pitchers appear out of nowhere on the fantasy radar. Not the same thing can be said for position players, at least anecdotally.

If you truly want competing owners coming to you midseason, you need to amass position-player depth.

In the end, here is my team at the end of the year:

Pos.

Player

Pos.

Player

C

Wilin Rosario

C

Matt Wieters

1B

Chris Carter

3B

Joey Gallo

2B

Ian Kinsler

OF

Josh Bell

SS

Ian Desmond

SS

Hunter Dozier

3B

David Freese

OF

Albert Almora

MI

Javier Baez

OF

Gabriel Guerrero

CI

Jon Singleton

2B

Jorge Polanco

OF

Oswaldo Arcia

OF

Yorman Rodriguez

OF

Wil Myers

OF

Jorge Bonifacio

OF

Adam Eaton

3B

Ryan McMahon

OF

Lorenzo Cain

OF

Mitch Haniger

OF

Abraham Almonte

RP

Mike Foltynewicz

U

Jose Iglesias

SP

Andrew Heaney

U

Luis Sardinas

SP

Alex Meyer

P

Chase Anderson

SP

Jarrod Parker

P

Jonathan Broxton

SP

Martin Perez

P

Gio Gonzalez

RP

Will Smith

P

Kevin Gausman

SP

Jesse Biddle

P

Jimmy Nelson

SP

Roberto Ozuna

P

Shane Greene

SP

Devin Williams

P

Jenrry Mejia

P

Alex Wood

P

Eddie Butler

The pitching staff needs upgrading and I’m clearly speculating on saves with Mejia, Smith, and Broxton; however, my squad started finishing in the 6th-to-10th range over the final two months. In essence, even though I finished in 19th position, my TDGX team is on the road to recovery. I’m already dreaming about competing in 2015, and it’s because I was able to avoid falling in love with A-ball players, grabbed injured players, and focused on acquiring bats. If you follow the same advice in your rebuilding project—if necessary!—I’m confident that you can be on the road to a championship much more quickly than otherwise possible.

J.P. Breen is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see J.P.'s other articles. You can contact J.P. by clicking here

Related Content:  Fantasy,  Dynasty Leagues,  Keeper Leagues

9 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (12/12)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Jos... (12/11)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: The... (12/16)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (12/12)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
What You Need to Know: Engel in the Outfield
Short Relief: Underappreciated Player Week: ...
Premium Article Weekly Wrap: August 18, 2017
Premium Article Guarding The Lines: Here The Fastball Are No...
Cold Takes: Doomed and Determined
Circle Change: The Best Failure in Baseball
Banjo Hitter: The First 162: Alex Bregman

MORE FROM DECEMBER 12, 2014
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Santana and Morales, O...
Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Remember James Shields?
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: All the Fantasy Angles
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: The Pitchers the Reds ...
Fantasy Article Fantasy Team Preview: Miami Marlins
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: The Dodgers' First Dum...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Turn Down For Rut

MORE BY J.P. BREEN
2015-01-05 - Fantasy Article State of the Position: Catchers
2014-12-18 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: What the Rays and Nati...
2014-12-17 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Team Preview: Milwaukee Brewers
2014-12-12 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Shortening Your Dynasty R...
2014-12-12 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: All the Fantasy Angles
2014-12-04 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Team Preview: Colorado Rockies
2014-11-18 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Five Fantasy Busts
More...

MORE FANTASY FREESTYLE
2014-12-18 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Don't Forget the Vets
2014-12-17 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Undervalued NL Starting P...
2014-12-16 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: The Trouble With Tiers
2014-12-12 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Shortening Your Dynasty R...
2014-12-11 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Jose Quintana, Forever Un...
2014-12-10 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: American League Speed Opt...
2014-12-09 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Is Yordano Ventura Overra...
More...