No Previous Article
No Next Article
March 9, 1999
AL Central Notebook
Rookies to Know in 1999
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
The rebuilding process of a team that should have been more competitive than it was continues, as
the departures of Belle and Ventura open up even more jobs. The departure of Mike Cameron leaves
the centerfield job open for Brian Simmons, a tools-laden late-blooming hitter with a diverse
range of skills, but who is already 25 and is unlikely to ever progress beyond the point of a
switch-hitting Chad Curtis: a valuable role player, but overmatched as a starter. The White Sox are
giving Carlos Lee serious consideration for the job at third, but he has to prove he can
field the position first. He's a good hitter, but not as good as the hype. Last year's power
numbers were inflated because of his high number of at-bats, which are in turn so high because he
doesn't walk much. He also found a way to hit into 32 double plays last year, a remarkable total
in Double-A. With top prospect Joe Crede on his way up, Lee's window of opportunity is a tight
The White Sox have too many options at catcher to reasonably sort out in six weeks, but after last
season, their best answer was Mark Johnson, who has a terrific defensive reputation and has
drawn 211 walks in 237 minor league games the last two years. That's the definition of a patient
hitter. However, he's recuperating from a winter bout of mono, and the organization seems
ridiculously enthusiastic about Josh Paul. Paul isn't as good behind the plate, and has
limited offensive skills, but he's from the Chicago area, and Jerry Manuel loves his attitude.
On the merits of talent, Johnson would be the obvious choice. The pitching staff already saw a
several rookies debut last year, but one guy to watch out for is Chad Bradford, a submariner
right-hander who has been effective wherever he's pitched, including a 31-inning trial in the
majors last year.
The signing of Roberto Alomar, and Omar Vizquel's decision to finally shut up and show up,
eliminates any chance of a starting job for Enrique Wilson, who is already the third-best
shortstop in the division. On a veteran team that is expected to win the division handily, that's
as good as it gets for rookies, but watch third baseman Russ Branyan closely. He's had
persistent problems with wrist tendinitis that cost him over half of 1998. He's unlikely to make
the team as anything more than a pinch-hitter, but if they open up a starting job for him, or if
the Royals can get him for Kevin Appier (I can dream, can't I?), he has the ability to challenge
McGwire's record. I mean his rookie record, of 49 homers. I'm not joking; Branyan has that
kind of power.
Well, they have rookies, but they're showing no signs that they're willing to give them jobs.
Juan Encarnacion has been handed a starting job in the outfield, but the Tigers' suicidal
insistence on playing Brian Hunter means that Gabe Kapler, who is certainly ready for
prime-time, is probably stuck in the minors for at least half the year. The trade for Brad Ausmus
is the Tigers' way of ignoring the opportunity to use Rob Fick, who could still be a
left-handed Brian Harper in the right situation. The Tigers' best hope for help from young
players comes from sophomores Matt Anderson, who is this close to establishing
himself as a dominant reliever in the Troy Percival class. Seth Greisinger doesn't have
to worry about being promoted to yet another level, and could win 11-14 games with good run
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
The Royals have received a lot of attention for the rookie triumvirate that's likely to be in the
lineup, and for good reason. Jeremy Giambi is hardly young - he turns 25 late in the
season - but the Royals are already pencilling him in as their #3 hitter, and he could very easily
win the Rookie of the Year award if Eric Chavez falters (much like 1994, when Bob Hamelin won the
award even though it was obvious that Manny Ramirez was the better long-term player). Carlos
Febles is multi-talented second baseman with walks, steals, emerging power, and excellent
defense; he is quite capable of challenging for the Rookie award if no one has a standout season.
Carlos Beltran is the dark horse in centerfield; he is the least polished of the three,
but also the youngest, and any outcome, from returning in shame to the minors by May to a .300
average and 25 homers, is a legitimate possibility.
The prospects for rookies in the rotation hinges on whether or not Kevin Appier will be traded.
If he is, look for Jose Rosado, Glen Rusch, and Jeff Suppan to be at the front of the rotation,
but almost anyone could drop into the fourth and fifth slots. The Royals are talking up Dan
Reichert, who battled back from diabetes to pitch well at Triple-A last year. I'm a huge fan of
his, but he simply isn't ready, and it might be damaging to his career to get rushed this much.
Brian Barber, who was erratic but interesting in a September call-up, is a likely candidate,
but the risk of a 5-17, 6.40 ERA season is not to be trifled with. In the bullpen, fireballer
Orber Moreno could be finished with the minor leagues by mid-season and closing games out
by September, and is well worth a reserve pick in a rotisserie draft.
Even more than the Royals, the Twins are going all-out with a youth movement, but unlike the
Royals, their prospects may not be ready for the task at hand. At shortstop, there's a good
chance you're going to see a lot of Cristian Guzman, who's exceptionally young and plays
good defense, but has terrible plate discipline which is unlikely to develop if he's force-fed
at the major league level this year. In centerfield, Torii Hunter and Jacque Jones
will be battling for playing time. Jones is the guy to watch. His physical talents are rapidly
being refined into useful baseball skills, and he could hit .280 with 15 homers and cover half
the Metrodome outfield by himself. The frequently-overlooked Chris Latham is also in the
mix. He's a better hitter than either Hunter or Jones at this point, but he also turns 26 in May.
He would make an outstanding fourth outfielder on a team that really isn't looking for one.
Doug Mientkiewicz has gotten some press as a possible starter at first base, and he does
have some useful baseball skills (good glove, doubles power). He also walks a bunch, which
separates him from the Rico Brognas of the world, putting him into the Wally Joyner class.
He has little or no superstar potential, but the Twins could do worse.
The Twins really need help with their pitching staff, but they have fewer options from the
minors. Benj Sampson could be a good fourth starter, and the Twins still hold out hope
that former first-round draft pick Mark Redman can get over the mental anguish of
pitching in the old PCL. But unless a lot of "ifs" become reality, Twins fans
better hold on to their back issues of Baseball America, and hope they read a lot of
good press about Matt LeCroy, who could be the division's best catcher by 2000, and
Michael Cuddyer, who could easily develop into Scott Rolen Lite.
Rany Jazayerli is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
Click here to see Rany's other articles.
You can contact Rany by clicking here
0 comments have been left for this article.
No Previous Article
No Next Article