November 12, 2003
Can Of Corn
Judging Farm Systems by Run Differential
Which organization has the best farm system in baseball? This is a fairly pedestrian question that's normally answered with an amalgam of various and sundry top 10 lists in tandem with thumbnail estimations of depth and projectability. Depending on which tools you're wielding, evaluations of this nature can be all shades and hues of accurate.
Another common approach to this question is to look at the cumulative records of each system's affiliates. If nothing else, it's objective, and it's this tack that informs my attempt at ranking the farm systems. But my angle is not without modifications.
Baseball is reducible to components beyond the run, but it's the run--both scored and prevented--that is the fundament of the game. It's also the run that forms the basis of many of the more useful metrics you'll find at Baseball Prospectus. A team's run differential plays a vital role in determining its record and is even more instructive, when plugged into the various flavors of the Pythagorean run formula, in predicting a team's performance in forthcoming seasons. However, this method is most often confined to the major league level. So why not use run differential to evaluate an organization's minor league system? (Rhetorical; don't answer.) This may not resolve abstract notions of "best" and "worst," but it will bring us reasonably close to knowing, and it'll do so by dint of objectivity.
In the table below, you'll see the aggregate run differentials (RD) for each organization's six minor league affiliates. A system with more runs scored than runs allowed will have a positive RD figure, and a system with the opposite arrangement will have a negative RD figure. Although the results are sorted by RD, cumulative record and winning percentage are included, as well. You may notice that there are discrepancies in the number of games played within each system. This is owing to the fact that the four rookie-league circuits (Appalachian, Pioneer, Gulf Coast and Arizona Leagues) play schedules of varying lengths. The results:
Team Affiliate RD Affiliate Record Affiliate Win% 1. Pirates +503 399-288 0.581 2. Indians +436 406-299 0.576 3. Royals +357 353-317 0.527 4. Athletics +324 369-324 0.532 5. Mariners +315 363-326 0.527 6. Blue Jays +265 370-327 0.531 7. Rangers +190 377-312 0.547 8. Braves +77 340-344 0.497 9. Twins +57 343-339 0.503 10. Reds +56 335-362 0.481 11. Angels +3 353-340 0.509 12. Mets -2 352-348 0.503 13. Yankees -2 342-341 0.501 14. Astros -2 350-350 0.500 15. D-Rays -7 345-349 0.497 16. D-backs -20 366-346 0.514 17. Rockies -24 361-351 0.507 18. White Sox -39 344-354 0.493 19. Red Sox -46 339-345 0.496 20. Dodgers -51 332-352 0.485 21. Orioles -74 368-389 0.486 22. Marlins -105 345-342 0.502 23. Tigers -141 332-358 0.481 24. Padres -157 339-372 0.477 25. Cubs -242 324-360 0.474 26. Cardinals -267 313-381 0.451 27. Brewers -277 322-365 0.469 28. Giants -331 314-377 0.454 29. Phillies -335 317-369 0.462 30. Expos -474 300-386 0.437
What's not surprising is that ballyhooed systems like the A's, Indians and Blue Jays rank quite high. What is surprising is that the Pirates' system easily tops the loop according to RD and winning percentage. To put a finer point on it, the Bucs' system was just about 1,000 runs better than the exhaust-sucking Expos' system this past season.
It's also worth noting that American League systems occupy 10 of the top 15 spots and six of the top seven. But that really doesn't capture just to what degree the junior circuit is shaming the National League in terms of player development (remember that AL and NL affiliates are co-mingled in all the minor leagues). The AL's overall RD is 1,638, while the NL's is -1,651. Also in terms of RD, NL systems occupy the bottom seven slots in the rankings above. It's probably no coincidence that the AL, at this juncture, is the league far more open to using advanced statistical analysis in matters of player acquisition. No wonder the AL is taco-ing up (my preferred alternative to the hopelessly played out "cowboy up").
Once-strong systems like the Cubs, Padres, Marlins and Expos are in a down cycle, while the Royals may be poised for some strong years to come in the AL Central. And man-on-the-street notions of the Cardinals', Brewers' and Tigers' systems are fairly spot-on.
Other ruminations on the data...
I'm not submitting that leading this list in RD is tantamount to having the best farm system in baseball, but I am saying it's close. An organization's RD can be modestly inflated by strong seasons by journeymen at the Triple-A level, but those aren't sweeping considerations. It's worth tracking these rankings in the coming seasons to see how performance at the highest level squares with what affiliate RDs say about the future. In the meantime, taco up.