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August 20, 2014

Dynasty Dynamics

More Top 50 Talk

by Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein


Last week, Craig and I each gave a breakdown of our top 50 dynasty prospects, doing our best Bret Sayre impressions as we looked for a cause to discuss where 2014 draftees should rank, how some recent injuries have impacted the dynasty landscape and more.

We have some of the reasoning behind our rankings in last week’s post, and we further discussed our feelings in last week’s episode of TINO, too. But there’s always more to talk about when it comes to rankings, and so Craig and I have decided to milk this subject for all it’s worth this week as well.

Last week, Craig wrote about how Kohl Stewart just missed this list for him, and I wrote about how Jake Marisnick just missed for me. But there are plenty of other players who tempted us, and we’ll discuss them here, as well as throw out one dark-horse top 50 candidate each and one player you may be surprised we didn’t consider.

Just Missed

Ben: Jose Peraza, 2B/SS, Braves
Marisnick came in at no. 51 when I finalized my rankings last year, and it was Peraza who came in at no. 52. I’ve been really high on the 20-year-old infielder for a few seasons now and thought I’d be ahead of the crowd by ranking him on my preseason top 100. Unfortunately, someone with slightly more national sway than I hold ranked Peraza at no. 99, sinking much of the “sleeper prospect” status Peraza had entering the year. Now, Peraza is pretty well known in dynasty circles, and for good reason. He hit .342/.365/.454 with 35 stolen bases in High-A this year, then moved up to Double-A, where he’s hit .341/.366/.430 with 25 more steals. His averages are partially BABIP-driven, to be sure, but Peraza profiles as a high-average hitter, and his speed is going to help him turn some ground balls into base hits at the MLB level, too. We’re not looking at a star here, but we are looking at someone who can do a pretty decent 2012-2013 Jose Altuve impression at second base, and Peraza should be up by mid-2015.

Craig: Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees
No, you’re tired of talking about Aaron Judge. I know I’ve been pushing Judge hard this season but there’s good reason for it. At 22 years old, he was merely living up to expectation by tearing apart the Low-A South Atlantic League, but he hasn’t stopped, even upon promotion to the pitcher’s paradise that is the Florida State League. While his average has dipped to .265, Judge is walking an astonishing 18 percent of the time, pushing his OBP to just shy of .400. His slugging has taken a hit as well, expected given the rise in talent and the pitcher-friendly parks, but he’s still producing a 143 wRC+ for the level. He’s angling to start 2015 at Double-A (if not receive a late 2014 promotion), and at his age, the Yankees shouldn’t hesitate to push him. He’s got huge raw power that plays down in games, but is still going to be present in his year-end production, and at 6-foot-7, he’s going to hit for a better average than you might think.

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Related Content:  Prospects,  Fantasy,  Dynasty Leagues

4 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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DeathSpeculum

any consideration for teoscar hernandez? I know margot is bill james' baby, but the tools seem similar (at least from a far)

Aug 20, 2014 13:55 PM
rating: 0
 
Bryan Cole

Someone at Saberseminar asked Ben Cherington to give some love to a Red Sox prospect not on any of the top ten lists. He eventually came up with Margot.

Aug 21, 2014 06:25 AM
rating: 1
 
ravenight

If you guys are looking for topics for future articles, I think a under-discussed area is mid-season updates on former prospects. Not necessarily post-hype guys, but guys who have been in the majors enough to not be prospects anymore, yet still show room for growth.

In some sense, this is similar to the U25 rankings, but instead of fitting in young MLB players vs MiLB ones, it would be about re-assessing the ceiling, expectation, or floor for guys who were, say, top 25 or top 50 prospects on one of the last 3 preseason lists (to pick an arbitrary group of players) and are in the majors now.

Aug 22, 2014 12:04 PM
rating: 1
 
MaineSkin

Hunter Harvey not in top 50 on a fantasy list is just fine. Watch Gausmen who's showing a tight CB now, but in the AL East, the SP prospect better be a legitimate ace candidate or he'll just disappoint like many others.
The last like 11 SP to leave the AL East and go to the NL have lowered their ERA by a full run. The past 2? Arrieta and Hammel. Arrieta was more confidence w/the normal ctl issue for a power arm, but Hammel? Shit, even Hughes is a 15 game winner now (due to decline in BB%, but still, he like many do not have the confidence to throw strikes in those parks vs those lineups) (I love parenthesis).

Aug 22, 2014 20:36 PM
rating: 0
 
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Premium Article Minor League Update: G... (08/20)
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Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: Our ... (08/13)
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Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: Prog... (08/27)
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