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February 28, 1999
NL East Notebook
Potential Breakouts and Flops for 1999
The bad news about Andres Galarraga has put several Braves players on the
spot, and the team's anxiety over the loss of their top slugger from '98
has them hitting the trade market. Barring a deal, the spotlight will fall
on Ryan Klesko. Klesko actually wanted to make the move to first early last
season when he realized Dmitri Young had surpassed him as the biggest
leftfield joke in the majors. More importantly, Klesko will spend more time
in the lineup (again, if the Braves don't acquire another 1b) and should
blossom with more consistent playing time.
Perhaps no player in baseball is more likely to collapse into a white dwarf
than Bret Boone, given that he's already both white and on the small side.
His 24 home runs made roto players swoon, but the superficial totals masked
a .266/.324/.458 effort that was his best season since '94. He's very
likely to fall back to earth and send the Braves scrambling for
alternatives in June, much as the Cubs did to replace Jeff Blauser last
Which Marlin veterans are the most important factors on the team's '99
fate? Ha! Trick question: the Marlins have no veterans.
That's slightly disingenuous, because the team will return with about 2/3
of its year-end starting lineup. Mark Kotsay, Todd Dunwoody,
and Derrek Lee
will all be watched closely for steps forward that bring them up to the
level of their pre-'98 hype; Dunwoody is the least likely of the three to
do it unless he arrests his criminal lack of plate discipline in a big
hurry. The team really needs all three to move forward this year, as the
Marlins probably won't get much offensive production in the middle infield
until about 2001.
Much focus will be on Cliff Floyd, whose 20/20 season last year returned
him to the national stage he would have conquered in '95, were it not for
one of the worst baseball injuries this decade. However, the focus may be
on the wrong aspects: Floyd's career may seem to be on the upswing, but
some ominous signs lay in his '98 performance. In particular, his plate
discipline - long a strength - fell apart as he pushed to generate more
power. He also only slugged .481, which represented a career high but is
far below where he'll need to be to stay in the Marlins' plans.
Of greater interest is the status of three arms in the rotation: Alex
Fernandez, coming off rotator cuff surgery, and Livan Hernandez and Jesus
Sanchez, coming off of a year of severe arm abuse at the hands of Jim
"Barney Fife" Leyland.
Like the Marlins, the Expos return few "veterans" in the traditional
(grizzled) sense of the word. Instead, the team boasts two potential
breakout players and two touted youngsters on the hot seat.
Carl Pavano and Javier Vazquez both put up relatively disappointing stats
in their first year in the majors last year, with Vazquez suffering from
the twin maladies of a high ERA and no run support. However, either or both
of the pair could break out this year, with Pavano very likely to break
through as the intelligent pitcher continues to learn his way around the
Brad Fullmer and Chris Widger should command your attention for a different
reason: both could be pushed out by other young players if they fail to
improve significantly this year. While Fullmer's numbers placed him on par
with more touted players like Travis Lee, his final stats weren't great,
his defense was poor, and he has both Fernando Seguignol and Jon Tucker
behind him. Similarly, Widger has the oncoming bullet train of Michael
Barrett in his rearview mirror, and at 28, Widger is hardly likely to make
big strikes forward. Widger actually regressed last year, and his
.233/.281/.388 was so poor that Gord Ash will probably want to trade Roy
Halladay for him.
NEW YORK METS
Trumped again by their storied neighbors to the west, the Mets will rely on
a veteran core to try to make some headlines and win the wild card. The
attention will primarily fall on returning superstar (and new zillionaire)
Mike Piazza, and on newcomers like Robin Ventura and Bobby Bonilla.
While Ventura and Bonilla are likely to see continued declines in their
production, the Mets are counting on some players who might not be as
reliable as the team thinks. While Al Leiter was simply incredible last
year, he has a long history of arm injuries, and is just one year removed
from a 4+ ERA and control troubles back in Miami. Masato Yoshii was a
mediocre pitcher after his hot start last season. And Hideo Nomo ... well,
there's a lot of coaching required there, and I doubt Bobby-san has the
intestinal fortitude to wait Nomo's troubles out. Even John Olerud is
likely to slip some, although he should still be one of the NL's top first
The Mets have few potential breakout candidates. One we've touted for some
time is Roger Cedeno, who would have been a nice (and cheap) answer for the
leadoff job before they signed Rickey Henderson. With Bonilla in need of a
defensive replacement by the third inning of most games, Cedeno could see
significant action spelling him or Henderson, who will probably get his
share of days off to stay healthy.
Like the Mets, the Phils don't have many breakout candidates; they had a
pair of players who made huge jumps last year in Bobby Abreu and Scott
Rolen, but the till is empty for the time being.
Paul Byrd will get plenty of attention because of his strong stint in the
rotation down the stretch, although Terry Francona did his fair share to
beat Byrd's reputation down. Byrd can easily be the team's #4 starter and
do very well, but any pre-season hype that has him as more than that isn't
worth your time.
Curt Schilling's hemming and hawing about where he wants to play this year
has obscured one simple fact: since his last major arm injury in '96, he's
thrown over 700 innings and faced over 2800 batters. He showed no signs of
injury last year, but I'm reluctant to believe that a surgically rebuilt
arm can tolerate that level of usage.
Finally, the team will surely be expecting a move forward from Doug
Glanville. At 29, he's already closer to the end of his hitting prime than
to the beginning, and he's a good bet to struggle and work himself out of
the team's plans over the course of the season.
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