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August 8, 2014

Fantasy Freestyle

Jeremy Hellickson

by Craig Goldstein


Stop getting excited about Jeremy Hellickson. All four of you. If we haven’t learned that we shouldn’t judge anything based off of four starts or 20-plus innings, we sure as hell should have. So let’s not declare him “back to the old Hellickson,” or make any other bold proclamations here. Let’s just take a look at what he’s done over 20 brief innings, and see if he’s doing anything different. If he is, perhaps you can get in on the ground floor of his value, after a rough 2013.

With his strikeout and walk rates in the same vicinity of his career totals, let’s start with his velocity, per Brooks Baseball:


Everything looks to be about the same. It is worth noting the lack of a cutter for Hellickson, a change compared to the 2013-14 season, except:

Dammit. He barely used the cutter last year, and at seven percent, the pitch wasn’t a major factor for him, even at its highest usage point. Instead of showing you a massive amount of charts though, what I’m going to tell you is this:

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Related Content:  Fantasy,  Jeremy Hellickson

4 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

David Schwalb

Negative results are still results worth knowing. All articles don't have to point to a significant change in style/profile for the information to be worthwhile.

"While there are a few anomalies, they appear to be the result of variance more than a process change at this point."

Aug 08, 2014 08:47 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

I hope it doesn't seem I said otherwise. Not finding something is as useful as finding something at times, but I do think in this case the sample is small enough that it doesn't necessarily eliminate things. I think he'll trend backwards towards his career averages, but it's possible that what he is doing holds, and at that point we can re-assess and see if something truly has changed.

Aug 08, 2014 08:50 AM
 
evergreen

Given the small sample, would it make sense to look at the fly-ball/ground-ball tendencies of the batters he's faced? I know there is significant team-to-team variation.

His last game (4 GB, 16 FB, 6 LD according to B-R, his most extreme start) was against the A's, whose hitters have a well-known FB tendency.

Aug 08, 2014 08:50 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

I think that's a great point and would certainly skew any numbers given that small sample. Thanks for the added info!

Aug 08, 2014 08:51 AM
 
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<< Previous Article
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit Lis... (08/08)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: A S... (08/07)
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Premium Article What You Need to Know:... (08/08)

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