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July 17, 2014

Painting the Black

The Stealth Steals

by R.J. Anderson


Although we've published more than 100 Transaction Analysis columns since November, the reality is not every signing or waiver claim gets covered. Most of those missed transactions amount to nothing, but a few result in larger impacts than expected. Here are five uncovered moves that yielded good returns during the first half, along with what we would have written if we had covered them at the time, and what we should have written if we'd focused on exactly the right details.

Chris Coghlan

The stats: .275/.355/.477 in 171 PA

The likelihood: Closest PECOTA percentile: > 90th

The move: Signed to a minor-league contract by the Cubs in January.

What we would have said: Coghlan, the 2009 Rookie of the Year, hasn't been a productive player since his sophomore campaign. What he has done is prove that he's neither durable nor an infielder, which leaves him as an unreliable extra outfielder. It doesn't help that Coghlan's power numbers have declined—his ISO over the past two seasons is .080—while his strikeout rate spiked in 2013, meaning there's not a ton to like about his offensive profile. Yes, Coghlan won an award five years ago, but so did Jim Tracy; something else they have in common: neither belongs on a big-league roster.

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Matthew W
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Sorry for the TL:DR post, but I just couldn't help but laugh when I see 3 of the names I have claimed in my DEEP 600 player drafted keeper/dynasty league. They have helped raise me from a sluggish start into the top 3!
Hopefully they aren't total flukes, and keep producing!
With only 1 waiver claim per week, I always use it. Churning your roster is ALWAYS my advice these days, I feel like the usual "stick to your pre-draft numbers for months" isn't the greatest advice anymore.
So are Pearce, Martinez, McHugh total flukes? should I trade them? will I get any value for them, or should I just keep riding them?

p.s. LOVE Transaction Analysis and Painting the Black btw! keep up the excellent work, and we all understand why you didn't cover these guys, don't take it too hard! :)


Gillaspie, Conor 3B | CHW - Claimed off Waivers 7/14/2014
Flowers, Tyler C | CHW - Dropped
Shoemaker, Matt SP | LAA - Claimed off Waivers 7/7/2014
Garcia, Jaime SP | STL - Dropped
Ramirez, Neil SP | CHC - Claimed off Waivers 6/30/2014
Ethier, Andre RF | LAD - Dropped
Pearce, Steve DH | BAL - Claimed off Waivers 6/23/2014
Swisher, Nick 1B | CLE - Dropped
Britton, Zach SP | BAL - Claimed off Waivers 6/2/2014
Lindstrom, Matt RP | CHW - Dropped
Martinez, J.D. LF | DET - Claimed off Waivers 5/26/2014
McLouth, Nate LF | WAS - Dropped
Weeks, Rickie 2B | MIL - Claimed off Waivers 5/19/2014
Strop, Pedro RP | CHC - Dropped
Francisco, Juan 1B | TOR - Claimed off Waivers 5/12/2014
Pacheco, Jordan 1B | ARI - Dropped
McHugh, Collin SP | HOU - Claimed off Waivers 5/5/2014
Johnson, Erik SP | CHW - Dropped
Vargas, Jason SP | KC - Claimed off Waivers 4/21/2014
Nova, Ivan SP | NYY - Dropped
Flowers, Tyler C | CHW - Claimed off Waivers 4/14/2014
Stubbs, Drew RF | COL - Dropped
Blackmon, Charlie RF | COL - Claimed off Waivers 4/14/2014
Baker, Scott SP | TEX - Dropped
Hutchison, Drew SP | TOR - Claimed off Waivers 4/7/2014
Weeks, Jemile 2B | BAL - Dropped

(Flowers was really the only guy whose "hot start" was a total mirage, but I lost W. Ramos to injury so I gambled!)

Jul 17, 2014 06:55 AM
rating: -4
 
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<< Previous Article
Eyewitness Accounts: J... (07/17)
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Premium Article Painting the Black: Th... (07/24)
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The Lineup Card: Nine ... (07/17)

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