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July 17, 2014

Painting the Black

The Stealth Steals

by R.J. Anderson


Although we've published more than 100 Transaction Analysis columns since November, the reality is not every signing or waiver claim gets covered. Most of those missed transactions amount to nothing, but a few result in larger impacts than expected. Here are five uncovered moves that yielded good returns during the first half, along with what we would have written if we had covered them at the time, and what we should have written if we'd focused on exactly the right details.

Chris Coghlan

The stats: .275/.355/.477 in 171 PA

The likelihood: Closest PECOTA percentile: > 90th

The move: Signed to a minor-league contract by the Cubs in January.

What we would have said: Coghlan, the 2009 Rookie of the Year, hasn't been a productive player since his sophomore campaign. What he has done is prove that he's neither durable nor an infielder, which leaves him as an unreliable extra outfielder. It doesn't help that Coghlan's power numbers have declined—his ISO over the past two seasons is .080—while his strikeout rate spiked in 2013, meaning there's not a ton to like about his offensive profile. Yes, Coghlan won an award five years ago, but so did Jim Tracy; something else they have in common: neither belongs on a big-league roster.

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<< Previous Article
Eyewitness Accounts: J... (07/17)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Painting the Black: Bo... (07/10)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Painting the Black: Th... (07/24)
Next Article >>
The Lineup Card: Nine ... (07/17)

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