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July 15, 2014

Fantasy Freestyle

10 Crazy Predictions Fantasy Writers Should Have Made

by Mike Gianella


A popular preseason article topic for fantasy baseball writers is “10 Crazy Predictions.” These types of articles usually try to make wild predictions based on a somewhat logical premise. Typically, most of these predictions miss the mark, with perhaps one or two of them hitting the jackpot.

Truth is stranger than fiction, or so the old bromide goes. But every year, it never fails: Something happens that falls completely outside of the realm of anyone’s predictive powers, even for those who are trying to find outliers. Below is a non-inclusive listing of fantasy baseball events that no one in his or her right mind would have predicted in April that are absolute stunners.

1) What post-steroid power drop?
Major League Baseball got their men last August when 12 players agreed to suspensions at the conclusion of baseball’s Biogenesis investigation. Including Ryan Braun and Alex Rodriguez, a total of 14 players ultimately served suspensions or are in the process of serving a suspension (A-Rod).

The assumption was that the hitters in this group would suffer a power drop. Yet this has not been the case at all. Nelson Cruz is enjoying the best season of his career, while Jhonny Peralta has enjoyed one of his best power seasons to date. Factor in prior Biogenesis client Melky Cabrera and most of the hitters who were suspended for PED use at one point or another and who were tied to Biogenesis have had very successful seasons in the majors in 2014. While there isn’t enough evidence to suggest that the substances Anthony Bosch was distributing to players were useless, thus far performance being diminished in light of these players being forced to come clean has not transpired.

2) Miguel Cabrera is the third-highest fantasy earner on his own offense.
Over the past five years, there has not been a more reliable real or fantasy hitter than Miguel Cabrera. Since 2010, he has earned $38, $36, $40, and $42, and has been the third-, third-, second-, and first-best AL-only hitter in that time frame. If you put a $40 bid on Cabrera, it was money in the bank.

Cabrera has still been very solid this year. While his numbers are slightly down, he is still on pace to earn $30, which is good for 10th overall in the AL. But he has been out-produced by Victor Martinez ($32) and Ian Kinsler ($32) thus far. Cabrera slipping a little bit isn’t particularly surprising (he doesn’t steal bases and produces little or anything in that category) but Martinez’s amazing power resurgence and Kinsler’s amazing all around season have put them both ahead of Miggy, at least so far.

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<< Previous Article
Premium Article Minor League Update: G... (07/15)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Wha... (07/11)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Mid... (07/17)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (07/15)

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