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June 17, 2014

The 2012 Redraft

Whom Would We Pick Now?

by Baseball Prospectus


It's been just over two years since the 2012 draft, and we've gotten a good look at how that crop of highly touted amateurs has has performed in the pros. To see how much perceptions of those players have changed, we decided to do the draft over again (just as we did with the 2013 draft last week), assigning 30 picks to BP authors and re-drafting from scratch, selecting only from the pool of players who were picked last year. Here's how the first-round re-draft shook out.

1:1 Houston Astros
Actual Selection: Carlos Correa, SS
Re-Draft Selection: Mike Zunino, C, Mariners (2012 no. 3 pick)
Draft Position Change: +2
Explanation: He's not only made the big leagues, but he's the Mariners’ no. 1 catcher. We've discovered that Zunino has special framing and blocking abilities, so he's already an impact player. If his on-base skills develop, he could be one of the hidden elite players in baseball, like Jonathan Lucroy or Brian McCann. —Harry Pavlidis

1:2 Minnesota Twins
Actual Selection: Byron Buxton, CF
Re-Draft Selection: Byron Buxton, CF, Twins (2012 no. 2 pick)
Draft Position Change: 0
Explanation: Trouble with a wrist injury may have dampened some of the enthusiasm surrounding Buxton this season, but he’s still the premier talent from the 2012 draft. He has impact tools across the board and has a chance to be the best player in the game at his peak. —Mark Anderson

1:3 Seattle Mariners
Actual Selection: Mike Zunino, C
Re-Draft Selection: Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros (2012 no. 1 pick)
Draft Position Change: -2
Explanation: Correa is a face-of-the-franchise shortstop and a steal at this spot. With a body to dream on, Correa projects to stay at SS for the long term, playing at least average defense and showing off a near-elite arm while hitting for both plus power and average. That’s why he was taken no. 1 overall in 2012, and that’s why he has such a strong case for the current no. 1 overall prospect ranking. —CJ Wittmann

1:4 Baltimore Orioles
Actual Selection: Kevin Gausman, SP
Re-Draft Selection: Kevin Gausman, SP, Baltimore Orioles (2012 no. 4 pick)
Draft Position Change: 0
Explanation: Gausman retains his draft day potential as a future front-end arm with two plus-plus offerings in his fastball and changeup. Having already logged a couple of impressive starts with the big club this summer, he comes with a high floor and quick return on investment. —Nick Faleris

1:5 Kansas City Royals
Actual Selection: Kyle Zimmer, SP
Re-Draft Selection: Michael Wacha, SP, St. Louis Cardinals (2012 no. 19 pick)
Draft Position Change: +14
Explanation: Wacha was advanced coming out of college, but the opinions on his curveball were lukewarm. The progress the righty made with the pitch in a relatively short amount of time speaks to the makeup, and to his willingness to focus on what he needs to do to be successful over the long run. He's not only an arm that tracked quickly to The Show while improving in the process, but made an immediate impact on his club and should continue to do so over the long haul. —Chris Mellen

1:6 Chicago Cubs
Actual Selection: Albert Almora, OF
Re-Draft Selection: Addison Russell, SS, Oakland Athletics (2012 no. 11 pick)
Draft Position Change: +5
Explanation: While he lost a couple valuable months of Double-A development time this spring because of a torn hamstring, the time off did nothing to diminish Russell’s standing as one of the elite prospects in the game. There are still some rough edges to his swing and lingering whispers that range limitations at short may eventually push him to third, but the developmental progress has been impressive thus far. This is a first-division left-side prospect on a relatively fast track, and it speaks to the talent ahead of him that this kind of package was still on the board at no. 6 in this redraft. —Wilson Karaman

1:7 San Diego Padres
Actual Selection: Max Fried, SP
Re-Draft Selection: Lucas Giolito, SP, Washington Nationals (2012 no. 16 pick)
Draft Position Change: +9
Explanation: Lucas Giolito was a relatively easy selection in this spot, as he possesses the highest upside of any arm in baseball. While it’s not a certainty by any means that he’ll reach his Cooperstown ceiling, the payoff can still be immense, and Giolito has all of the tools to be a top-of-the-rotation workhorse, including a fastball in the mid to upper 90s, a picturesque pitcher's build, and a devastating curveball. To be sure, there are still some mechanical hurdles that Giolito needs to overcome, including a long arm swing, but the risk/reward is large enough to warrant a selection at no. 7. —Jordan Gorosh

1:8 Pittsburgh Pirates
Actual Selection: Mark Appel, SP (did not sign)
Re-Draft Selection: Andrew Heaney, SP, Miami Marlins (2012 no. 9 pick)
Draft Position Change: +1
Explanation: There are a lot of really talented players left, and I nearly balked at taking a pitcher. But Heaney dominated Triple-A and made it to the majors just two years after being drafted, and he looks the part of a no. 3 starter with no. 2 upside during his peak years. His combination of upside, left-handedness, and probability can't be beaten here. —Ben Carsley

1:9 Miami Marlins
Actual Selection: Andrew Heaney, SP
Re-Draft Selection: Joey Gallo, 3B, Texas Rangers (2012 no. 39 pick)
Draft Position Change: +30
Explanation: No one has questioned Gallo's power; it was the approach that inspired concerns. Gallo has answered those questions this season and then some, and my Marlins team now has two potential 80 power guys in the middle of my lineup (along with Giancarlo Stanton)—one from each side of the plate. —Jeff Moore

1:10 Colorado Rockies
Actual Selection: David Dahl, OF
Re-Draft Selection: Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers (2012 no. 18 pick)
Draft Position Change: +8
Explanation: What if I told you there was a left-handed-hitting, 6'4ʺ shortstop prospect with plus power, a plus arm, an above-average (or better) hit tool, and at least a puncher’s chance to stay at SS? Is that something you might be interested in? Thought so. —Mike Ferrin

1:11 Oakland Athletics
Actual Selection: Addison Russell, SS
Re-Draft Selection: David Dahl, OF, Colorado Rockies (2012 no. 10 pick)
Draft Position Change: -1
Explanation: Dahl has a ton of offensive ceiling. Couple that with speed that plays up on offense and defense, and I think the upside is worth the risk. His approach is raw, but I very much believe in the player. —Mauricio Rubio

1:12 New York Mets
Actual Selection: Gavin Cecchini, SS
Re-Draft Selection: Marcus Stroman, SP, Toronto Blue Jays (2012 no. 22 pick)
Draft Position Change: +10
Explanation: Wacha might have been the best value of the first round thus far, but Stroman isn't far behind. His height hasn't changed, but he's answered questions about whether he can be a starting pitcher despite his stature. He's in the majors, has swing-and-miss stuff, and should be a rotation mainstay from this point forward.—Craig Goldstein

1:13 Chicago White Sox
Actual Selection: Courtney Hawkins, OF
Re-Draft Selection: Eddie Butler, SP, Colorado Rockies (2012 no. 46 pick)
Draft Position Change: +33
Explanation: Butler saw his stock rise even more this season, as he owns a bevy of pitches and dominated the minors enough to earn a promotion to the bigs. Butler has the big-time fastball, which works well with his excellent changeup. At pick no. 14, he can’t stay on the board any longer. —Tucker Blair

1:14 Cincinnati Reds
Actual Selection: Nick Travieso, SP
Re-Draft Selection: Albert Almora, OF, Chicago Cubs (2012 no. 6 pick)
Draft Position Change: -8
Explanation: Almora’s numbers haven’t coalesced yet, but we’re talking about a 20-year-old kid playing against significantly older competition in the Florida State League. His scouting profile is what won me over here. His approach is at the plate is terrific and beyond his years, and he has the athleticism to stay in center field. I'm banking on the power projectability/maturation and the possibility of a 20-homer player with an otherwise great all-around game. —Mike Gianella

1:15 Cleveland Indians
Actual Selection: Tyler Naquin, OF
Re-Draft Selection: Jose Berrios, SP, Minnesota Twins (2012 no. 32 pick)
Draft Position Change: +17
Explanation: What Berrios lacks in ideal size, he more than makes up for with his stuff. He throws an easy mid-90s fastball with a low 70s curve and a low 80s breaking ball that moves more like a slider. Even more impressive, he can command and control all three pitches to both sides of the plate. Berrios' ceiling makes him a steal with the 15th pick. —Chris King

1:16 Washington Nationals
Actual Selection: Lucas Giolito, SP
Re-Draft Selection: Nick Williams, OF, Texas Rangers (2012 no. 93 pick)
Draft Position Change: +77
Explanation: Williams is going to be limited to left field, which puts a damper on the ultimate profile. But he's going to hit and hit some more with average to above-average power; that'll do just fine in the mid-first round. —Ron Shah

1:17 Toronto Blue Jays
Actual Selection: D.J. Davis, OF
Re-Draft Selection: Lucas Sims, SP, Atlanta Braves (2012 no. 21 pick)
Draft Position Change: +4
Explanation: The book on Sims, like the books on a lot of high school pitchers, was that he was a big-risk, big-reward type. Now, two years in, some of that potential appears to be realized, but even now, he's a risky pick. It looks like he has three pitches developing to MLB potential, and that's a nice human being to have, even in a system as pitching-heavy as Toronto’s. (Repeat after me: You can NEVER have enough pitching. Ever.) I popped him here for two reasons. One is that the Blue Jays pick again in a few moments (although oddly, I will be fired between now and then), so they can afford some risk here. The other is that the Blue Jays play in the AL East, and sometimes, you have to take some big risks to survive in that division. —Russell Carleton

1:18 Los Angeles Dodgers
Actual Selection: Corey Seager, SS
Re-Draft Selection: Stephen Piscotty, RF, St. Louis Cardinals (2012 no. 36 pick)
Draft Position Change: +18
Explanation: I was thinking about taking Zimmer or Fried here, as I believe that they have the highest upside of any players left, but their injuries gave me pause. I think Piscotty is going to hit and hit and hit. To me, he was the best healthy player remaining. —Chris Rodriguez

1:19 St. Louis Cardinals
Actual Selection: Michael Wacha, SP
Re-Draft Selection: Alex Wood, SP, Atlanta Braves (2012 no. 85 pick)
Draft Position Change: +66
Explanation: Am I throwing an unjustified pity party, or did the most attractive talent dry up just in time for my turn? Wood isn't an ultra-high-ceiling, flamethrowing, top-of-the-rotation type, but he does have the virtue of already being in the big leagues. He's succeeded in multiple major-league roles—the lefty began the season in the rotation, shifted to the pen, and is now being re-stretched out as a starter—and he probably won't be a bust in either. At this point in the draft, I'm happy to settle for an un-sexy but proven producer. —Ben Lindbergh

1:20 San Francisco Giants
Actual Selection: Chris Stratton, SP
Re-Draft Selection: Kyle Zimmer, SP, Kansas City Royals (2012 no. 5 pick)
Draft Position Change: -15
Explanation: Zimmer has certainly had a frustrating 2014, with “minor” injuries piling up to wipe out his season to date. There’s also a sense of foreboding that the Royals organization is lying to us about their prize prospect, and that his shoulder is in much deeper trouble than they're letting on. That said, he was still the no. 34 prospect in baseball before the season, and it's hard to imagine his skills have degraded this badly. The easy velocity and wipeout curve were working briefly in Double-A and should play in the majors, especially in an organization like that of the Giants, who are known for excelling in pitcher health and development.—Ian Lefkowitz

1:21 Atlanta Braves
Actual Selection: Lucas Sims, SP
Re-Draft Selection: Tom Murphy, C, Colorado Rockies (2012 no. 105 pick)
Draft Position Change: +84
Explanation: I got my pocket picked on Kyle Zimmer, who would have been tremendous value here. With no healthy players I loved left on the board, I took a help-soon college bat in Univ. of Buffalo's Tom Murphy. Murphy probably isn't an impact guy with his bat or glove, but he can be a solid solution at backstop for a winning team. —Al Skorupa

1:22 Toronto Blue Jays
Actual Selection: Marcus Stroman, SP
Re-Draft Selection: Max Fried, SP, San Diego Padres (2012 no. 7 pick)
Draft Position Change: -15
Explanation: Being sidelined for the first two-plus months of the season with a forearm injury has put the left-hander on the prospect back burner, but there is plenty of upside in his left arm. Fried still carries no. 2 starter potential and needs only to show that he’s healthy to regenerate the interest garnered from his Midwest League season in 2013. —Bret Sayre

1:23 St. Louis Cardinals
Actual Selection: James Ramsey, OF
Re-Draft Selection: Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds (2012 no. 49 pick)
Draft Position Change: +26
Explanation: Winker lacks top-shelf athleticism. However, he has the chance to atone for that with his bat. He marries an advanced approach with a quality hit tool and some power potential. Unfortunately, Winker's defensive projection is limited to left field, so he'll need to hit to make it. The good news is that there's no indication that he won't develop into at least an average hitter down the road.—R.J. Anderson

1:24 Red Sox
Actual Selection: Deven Marrero, SS
Re-Draft Selection: Lewis Brinson, OF, Texas Rangers (2012 no. 29 pick)
Draft Position Change: +5
Explanation: A pure upside selection, Brinson has the loudest tools left on the board, and he's flashing indications that they might be turning into skills. The outfielder has four plus potential tools, and his strikeout rate—a major concern entering a repeat of Low-A—is slowly trending downward. Brinson is the only player with role-7 upside still available, and as the sure-thing options get slimmer, that's tough to pass on. —Daniel Rathman

1:25 Tampa Bay Rays
Actual Selection: Richie Shaffer, 3B
Re-Draft Selection: Kevin Plawecki, C, New York Mets (2012 no. 35 pick)
Draft Position Change: +10
Explanation: There were no glaring problems with Plawecki entering the 2012 draft, but even as a solid defender with a polished bat, he slid to the supplemental round. Since that time, Plawecki's bat has proven to play and the glove is good enough to keep him behind the plate every day; that's a heck of a value in the late first round. —Mark Anderson

1:26 Arizona Diamondbacks
Actual Selection: Stryker Trahan, C
Re-Draft Selection: Tyrone Taylor, OF, Milwaukee Brewers (2012 no. 92 pick)
Draft Position Change: +66
Explanation: There's undoubtedly some homerism with this pick, as my fandom lies with Milwaukee, but there's a lot of upside with a guy like Tyrone Taylor. He possesses the tools to play an above-average center field, which is valuable in itself. Also, while the bat needs continued refinement, he already has 24 doubles and four homers in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. Taylor's raw tools make him a legitimate wild-card option at the end of the first round. —J.P. Breen

1:27 Milwaukee Brewers
Actual Selection: Clint Coulter, C
Re-Draft Selection: Tyler Naquin, OF, Cleveland Indians (2012 no. 15 pick)
Draft Position Change: -12
Explanation: There have been doubts surrounding Naquin's bat and how it will play against advanced pitching, but he has silenced the critics on his way up the ladder, posting a .326/.377/.448 line in 290 PA in Double-A this season. With a cannon for an arm and enough range for CF, he brings the type of all-around tool package that often goes under-appreciated but should pay dividends at the highest level. —Doug Thorburn

1:28 Milwaukee Brewers
Actual Selection: Victor Roache, OF
Re-Draft Selection: Tim Cooney, SP, St. Louis Cardinals (2012 no. 117 pick)
Draft Position Change: +89
Explanation: For as drool-worthy as the first 15 picks were, these last 15 will be lucky to produce much more than sleep-induced drool. Cooney is a polished, command-focused groundball machine. There are much higher ceilings available, but let's utilize Milwaukee's second straight pick for a high-floor option. —Paul Sporer

1:29 Texas Rangers
Actual Selection: Lewis Brinson, OF
Re-Draft Selection: Daniel Robertson, SS, Oakland Athletics (2012 no. 34 pick)
Draft Position Change: +5
Explanation: Two years into his pro career, Robertson's hit tool has carried over to the pro game as expected, and he's begun to realize his power projection. He's also stayed healthy, lived up to expectations on both sides of the ball, and shown solid development in his plate approach. With most of the elite-ceiling prospects well off the board, this is a strong value at this spot, even though he's still a few years away from potentially reaching the big leagues and lacks franchise-altering upside. —Todd Gold

1:30 New York Yankees
Actual Selection: Ty Hensley, SP
Re-Draft Selection: Rio Ruiz, 3B, Houston Astros (2012 no. 129 pick)
Draft Position Change: +99
Explanation: Lack of baseball experience, signability, and a blood clot procedure elevated the risk of selecting Ruiz in 2012; the Astros, with extra money with which to hunt for talent, picked him in the fourth round. Two years later, the gamble is paying off: He's alleviated concerns with his glovework at third base, and there's no questioning his hitting and power, both of which emerged in the second half last season and have further improved this year. —Andrew Koo

Related Content:  Draft,  Prospects,  Scouting,  Amateur Draft

55 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

wade1018

IIRC, the reason that Correa was taken 1-1 was because he was willing to sign for a below slot amount, and the Astros could deploy the savings elsewhere in the draft. While Correa is certainly an excellent prospect, without the financial considerations he would not have been 1-1.

Jun 17, 2014 04:34 AM
rating: 0
 
maxjusttyped

Maybe, maybe not. Kevin Goldstein did have Carlos Correa #1 on his board, and I'm sure he wasn't alone feeling that way.

Jun 17, 2014 04:36 AM
rating: 2
 
Nojsztat

Correa was a legit 1-1 option. The fact that his bonus demands were lower than Buxton's probably sealed the deal.

Jun 17, 2014 07:04 AM
rating: 1
 
Sharky

Was Gavin Cecchini ever a realistic top 30 pick? Hindsight is 20-20, but it continues to make the Mets' draft class look weak.

Jun 17, 2014 05:09 AM
rating: 1
 
bwe206

Kevin Goldstein ranked him #17 leading up to the draft. Here is the breakdown:

Who he is: The younger brother of Red Sox third baseman Garin, but a very different player. Gavin is smaller and more athletic, and a plus defensive shortstop who should stay at the position all the way up the ladder. He's a plus runner as well, and has outstanding baseball instincts. While Garin is arguably the best pure hitter in the Red Sox system, Gavin comes with questions about his bat. He has a smooth line drive stroke but little projection for power, so he'll have to develop a good approach to find his secondary skills.
Draft skinny: Pure shortstops in the draft are always a much-desired commodity, and Cecchini's name is in play for nearly every pick in the teens.

Jun 17, 2014 05:52 AM
rating: 3
 
JobuNeedsARefill

Pretty sure it's "who" when in the subject position.

Jun 17, 2014 05:19 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Russell A. Carleton
BP staff

My seventh grade teacher taught me that you should re-arrange questions to declarative sentences to figure out what goes where. "We would pick whom now."

Then again, Miley Cyrus taught us that "Things don't run we."

Jun 17, 2014 06:07 AM
 
cordially
(917)

Ya, we is the subject.

Jun 17, 2014 08:10 AM
rating: 0
 
alvinfan

Yep, cause the Astros need a young catcher who strikes out a ton.

Wait, they already have one.

Jun 17, 2014 05:49 AM
rating: 3
 
TGT969

While Andrew Heaney would look awfully nice in the Pirates rotation, I'd much
rather have 2013's 2 picks.

Jun 17, 2014 06:26 AM
rating: 1
 
jfranco77

McGuire was the later pick though, right? In a perfect world I'd take Heaney/McGuire over Meadows/McGuire.

Jun 17, 2014 06:47 AM
rating: 0
 
CRP13

Not to chew too hard, but you lost me with the very first pick. The Astros already had Jason Castro, a fine catcher who is also a good pitch framer, and who was a legitimate All-Star in 2013, not just a courtesy token write-in for the Astros.

Even despite this year's slump, Castro has also been a superior batter than Zunino for every year of their overlapping careers. I don't see how Zunino makes sense for the Astros either at the time OR in retrospect. So once I was baffled by the first pick, it threw me off for the rest of your redraft.

Jun 17, 2014 06:27 AM
rating: 6
 
OuagadougouGM

Probably the pick was just used as a platform to highlight the importance of pitch framing and blocking. Though I like Zunino and his pitch framing abilities do make him a valuable player, it is hard to imagine really drafting him in front of either Buxton or Correa.

Jun 17, 2014 06:46 AM
rating: 3
 
CRP13

I'm a pitch framing guy, big time (especially since Mike Fast joined the Astros and brought his emphasis on that with him...there's been a noticeable improvement by both catchers and all of the farm in this area).

But respectfully, I can't wrap my brain around the idea that Zunino's pitch framing and the promise of MAYBE some plate discipline are so much more valuable than Castro's that they negate the loss in offense AND the eventual production provided by a Correa, Buxton, or even Gausman.

Jun 17, 2014 07:01 AM
rating: 5
 
jonmischa

Zunino is in the majors now and is playing defense at a very high level. Add in a little place discipline and he could be one of the elite players in the game. Correa and Buxton look great, but neither has played AA yet, and they could both flame out before they ever reach the majors.

Jun 17, 2014 07:21 AM
rating: 0
 
alvinfan

This is ridiculous and ignores the Astros' current situation. They have a catcher who was elite, relative to his position, last year. And they're very similar this year.

That's what this redraft is about, right? Looking at the current situation and what would fit best. A catcher doesn't fit the Astros best.

I agree with Perry, I suspect they only changed the top to make it different from reality. Otherwise it would've been a bit boring.

Jun 17, 2014 07:30 AM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

I don't think we had any ulterior motives. The redraft was more about taking the players we thought were the top talents than considering team needs, so I don't think Castro's presence on the Astros really entered into the decision.

Jun 17, 2014 07:32 AM
 
alvinfan

Well, it appears that Zunino's presence in the majors is a huge factor.
Would Mike Leake have been the top pick in his redraft because he got to the majors early?

Jun 17, 2014 07:39 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

It's not just that he's there, it's that he's there and also has upside (at least in the eyes of the person who picked him). I doubt Leake would've been picked ahead of Strasburg, though I'm sure he would've gone early (and rightfully so). Proven league-average starters are nothing to sneeze at.

Jun 17, 2014 07:49 AM
 
alvinfan

Do you agree with the redraft?

Is Zunino going to be a better player than Correa or Buxton?

Jun 17, 2014 07:51 AM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

I don't know. I probably wouldn't have picked him there, but I think it's a defensible decision. We didn't ask anyone to make a contrarian pick to add intrigue to the list.

Jun 17, 2014 07:57 AM
 
edwardarthur

Ben,

It's too bad the Zunino pick got derailed into a question of journalistic ethics....

I read it as Harry's position alone, and one that I suspect many BP writers would disagree with. I think this would actually be a fun idea for an article, to poll the BP writers as to who they'd retroactively take first in this draft (similar to what you did about which SS prospect writers would take). My guess is it would be a majority Buxton, a strong minority Correa, and a small minority for Zunino, but I'd love to see folks' rationales for those picks....

Jun 17, 2014 08:34 AM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Harry Pavlidis
BP staff

I'm in a very small minority, but that doesn't impact my actions. Other than wishing I could have traded down and stolen him later.

Jun 17, 2014 10:29 AM
 
CRP13

And yet...

Zunino: "...he's the Mariners’ no. 1 catcher. We've discovered that Zunino has special framing and blocking abilities...If his on-base skills develop, he could be one of the hidden elite players in baseball."

Correa: "Correa is a face-of-the-franchise shortstop...that’s why he has such a strong case for the current no. 1 overall prospect ranking."

Buxton: "...he’s still the premier talent from the 2012 draft...has a chance to be the best player in the game at his peak."

It doesn't sound like this redraft took the top talent #1 overall.

Ultimately, it doesn't matter...this is no more than a fun thought exercise. But the Astros' selection doesn't jive with either the club's needs or your own descriptions of the players.

"#1 catcher for the Mariners" is not the same thing as "strong case for #1 overall prospect" and "best player in the game at his peak"

Jun 17, 2014 07:55 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

It could be if the no. 1 catcher for the Mariners is also one of the hidden elite players in baseball, though.

Anyway, we weren't aiming for internal consistency. We had 29 participants, and everyone's draft board looked different, just like it would in an actual draft.

Jun 17, 2014 07:59 AM
 
CRP13

Understood. Like I said, fun exercise. But that pick...I just don't get it, no matter how it's explained.

Jun 17, 2014 09:40 AM
rating: -2
 
BP staff member Harry Pavlidis
BP staff

that's utterly false. I did this at the kitchen table in Seattle, was the first person to pick and not a single person spoke to me about it. Unless you count my sister's dog. But I think she was just asking to go out.

Jun 17, 2014 10:28 AM
 
alvinfan
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It's too much pressure not to question this. You live in Seattle and took the Seattle player? It seems really simple to connect dot a to dot b here.

Gimme a consensus draft, not this garbage.

Jun 17, 2014 10:32 AM
rating: -12
 
BP staff member Harry Pavlidis
BP staff

that's hilarious. I was in Seattle for the BP event, crashing on my sister's couch. I live in Chicago, I was born and raised in New Jersey.

Jun 17, 2014 10:35 AM
 
alvinfan
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Ohh, clever diversion. I half expected this. "Lemme describe where I did this because I need to provide information to make it sound legit."

Cmon, please. Why did you guys choose him? He takes the player that reaches his floor over guys with ceilings MUCH higher. Zunino is a below-league-average catcher. How valuable. Replacement level.

Jun 17, 2014 10:44 AM
rating: -10
 
BP staff member Harry Pavlidis
BP staff

It was just me, we all had one pick. I don't see how hard that is to understand. My explanation is in the original remark and I've expanded on it in the comments section. You can disagree with me--I think about 98% of the world does, which is about 1.5% better than I expected--but this isn't a troll job.

Jun 17, 2014 10:51 AM
 
alvinfan
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I'd like to admit replacement level was overboard, but why be so conservative? You're trying to outsmart yourself by choosing Zunino. I'd have less issue if you had even gone with Giolito, knowning what we know now.

Jun 17, 2014 11:10 AM
rating: -4
 
jonmischa

alvinfan, what you're failing to grasp here is that this is one man's opinion. You disagree, we get it.

Jun 17, 2014 11:45 AM
rating: 4
 
Sbarrow

You also should have placed a 3 grade on correa Mortimer style, Harry.

Jun 17, 2014 12:47 PM
rating: 1
 
nschneider

I'd also like to see an analysis of the guys who were first round picks, but who have fallen since then. It's not that I'm interested in picking on teams whose picks haven't panned out (thus far), but in seeing why the players have fallen (toolsy guy who hasn't developed yet, injuries, overdraft from the start?).

Jun 17, 2014 07:28 AM
rating: 4
 
Rob Moore

I get the feeling this redraft is more about absolute value rather than team needs, right? That the Astro's have Castro doesn't really factor in here. That said, I still think Correa and Buxton look like the top two talents to me.

Jun 17, 2014 07:29 AM
rating: 3
 
maphal

Not really adding anything original, but it seems like Correa could be a superstar, whereas Zunino has yet to significantly hit anything over .220 above AA. Then again, I'm not a scout.

Jun 17, 2014 07:58 AM
rating: 0
 
bisanders
(329)

I think the main point is that Correa could also fail to become what Zunino is already. Meanwhile, Zunino also has some potential to become a superstar, himself.

I wouldn't have taken him at the top, either, but I do think the call is defensible.

No early draft picks should be based on the major league team's positional needs. Not even in a re-draft.

Jun 17, 2014 08:26 AM
rating: 0
 
alvinfan

Yeah, but Buxton and Correa could fail to become Jedd Gyorko or Cody Ross. This is a really awful defense, in my opinion.

You take BPA, not "player already in the majors".

Jun 17, 2014 08:33 AM
rating: 0
 
tonynelson19

Both Buxton and Correa have yet to significantly hit anything over .220 above AA, too.

Jun 17, 2014 08:43 AM
rating: 1
 
maphal

Despite that zinger, let's add that Buxton and Correa are three and four years younger than Zunino, respectively.

Jun 17, 2014 09:09 AM
rating: 2
 
comeonletsgo

I thought the choice of Gausman over Machado late last year for the number one spot in the Orioles Top 10 Talents 25 and Under was pretty crazy, but this one definitely tops it. Zunino over Buxton, Correa, Wacha, Russell? Wow.

Jun 17, 2014 08:27 AM
rating: 0
 
bisanders
(329)

JMO, but I'd say BPA is the guy who will likely return the greatest value to his major league club. That's not always the guy with the highest ceiling.

I think I'd put my money on Buxton or Correa, but we've got to admit that Wacha, Wood, & Zunino are in the lead right now, and Zunino just might win the long-term race.

Jun 17, 2014 08:47 AM
rating: -1
 
comeonletsgo

Fair enough. To make the judgment call right now however of course you have to ignore factors like the age difference between Mike Zunino, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa. You can take the approach that perhaps Buxton and Correa will fail before they reach the majors, or maybe they'll suffer career altering injuries, but the former strikes me as slightly unreasonable given their status as such elite prospects. The latter even more so.

In my opinion, I think it can be argued that even right now as minor leaguers, both Buxton and Correa could bring more value to their big league club than Zunino brings to his, at least currently--if the respective organizations attempted to do so.

I think of it like this, if the Twins or Astros decided to put Buxton and Correa on the trade market, their status as prospects would contribute to immediately bringing back more value to their big league clubs via a trade than Zunino has to Seattle, again, at least right now. It can't be understated just how much of a gap there has been between Zunino, Buxton, and Correa as prospects prior to reading this article, here at Baseball Prospectus or elsewhere.

The focus is so heavy on Zunino vs. Buxton and Correa, but there has also been a significant gap in prospect status between Zunino and the likes of at least Addison Russell and Kevin Gausman. In other words, taking Zunino first in this draft is an enormous statement. With all due respect.

Jun 17, 2014 10:43 AM
rating: 1
 
mdthomp

I'd take Wacha over Gausman, but thats just me I guess.

Jun 17, 2014 08:32 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Nick Faleris
BP staff

I'm sure you could find many people to agree with you.

Jun 17, 2014 15:11 PM
 
kcboomer

Considering the Royals under Dayton Moore have never had a #1 pick develop into an impact player or a starting pitcher what makes you think they are lying about Zimmer. My money is he never sees the majors in a Royals uniform.

Jun 17, 2014 10:09 AM
rating: 0
 
IanLefk
(85)

Hey, I think that when I wrote that I was mostly agreeing with you. The minor shoulder soreness lasting from last August through this month and the constantly shifting timetables both make me think that the Royals' brass may be downplaying the nature of the injury, and as you note, their history with development is not filled with success. That said, having seen Zimmer, there's at least two major league pitches there, and I'd be plenty surprised if he didn't at least surface, if not succeed. Would I prefer him in the Mock Giants organization? Most likely.

Jun 17, 2014 12:34 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Harry Pavlidis
BP staff

My ears are burning.

I realize I'm too risk averse to be a GM or scouting director but if you give _me_ a chance to get immediate and lasting value with 3 tiers of projection (OBA, game calling, pitch blocking), I'm taking it.

Castro, not an issue. Take the player that meets the cost/impact/risk assessments the best. Zunino fits the bill.

Development costs: almost nil with Zunino, outside of having Buck around to mentor him (PLEASE just focus on game calling there). Catchers often cost a great deal (of time) to develop.

Also, developing receiving skills etc. often detracts from development of hitting skills which gives Zunino some more hope to fulfill some of the projection with the bat and eye that other catchers may not.

As much as I love Wacha, Correa, Buxton ... even Gausman. Just too easy to take a guy like Zunino. Not for you, fine. But this didn't come flying out of my ass.

Jun 17, 2014 10:21 AM
 
LoyalRoyal

Here's a thought... Let's revisit this draft in 5 years and 10 years. The proof will be in the pudding then. Also, let's remember potential is a French word for 'you haven't proven anything yet'. This applies not only to Zunino's OBP, but even more so Buxton and Correa overall. As a Royals fan, I'd rather a Zunino (or Sal Perez) than a Bubba Starling. Hitting in AA and above is no joke. Lots of great "talent" May never hit as well as Zunino is currently in the majors. Cheers

Jun 17, 2014 11:12 AM
rating: 0
 
hyprvypr

I think what's really churning the argument draught here is that Zunino offers a lot of intangibles that can't really be properly documented even with our broad statistical information available today. Zunino blocks a startling amount of pitches that most catchers let get behind them and he's one of the primary reason Felix is so recklessly able to throw his changeup in the dirt all night.

Zunino has also been instrumental in the early success of Roenis Elias and James Paxton and may very well be able to squeeze more out of Taijuan Walker when he arrives to boot.

It's impossible to really sit here and define how much those catching intangibles are worth, but between that and his early solid exploits at the plate, with some upside, and he's clearly in the argument, at the least, for the top overall pick.

Jun 17, 2014 12:00 PM
rating: 0
 
CRP13

I'm intentionally trolling here, but "his early solid exploits at the plate"?

There is no way to positively spin his offensive performance from AAA on up.

Jun 17, 2014 13:41 PM
rating: 2
 
TheJRBShow

no way Astros would take Zunino...would be Correa or Buxton

Jun 17, 2014 12:18 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Nick Faleris
BP staff

I was scouting an amateur showcase while this redraft was going on. I mentioned the Zunino 1:1 pick to multiple evaluators and not one questioned it. Some mentioned they wouldn't make the same choice but almost everyone stated they saw the value in having an everyday catcher locked up.

Harry's pick may not be what a consensus of decision makers would select, but it is clearly a defensible pick, and I'd argue a more interesting and thought-out pick than simply looking at a prospect list from the start of the year and picking the guy up top.

Jun 17, 2014 15:09 PM
 
timjrohr

Huh. Nice call at 1:6. Now the Cubs have Russell AND Almora.

Jul 04, 2014 22:29 PM
rating: 0
 
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