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June 11, 2014

Dynasty Dynamics

Progress Report: Prospect Edition

by Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein


When you’ve done rankings and mock drafts for two straight months, you kind of wonder… why would anyone write about anything else? Sure there are draft grades, but those aren’t nearly as applicable to fantasy.

Then it hits you like a ton of bricks. Something like a… a stock watch. No. Everyone does that. What if you just called it something else. Yes, now you’re cooking with gas. What about a Progress Report? Perfect.

Really though, this is meant to be something a bit different than your standard stock watch. Fantasy stocks are easy to keep track of. If someone’s doing well, then their stock is high. If not, it goes the other direction. The progress report is meant to tell you about players who have seen their actual value change in the long-term dynasty sense - not just guys riding a hot streak.

To that end, we’re also including a “neutral” section for guys that have performed awfully or admirably but haven’t moved the needle in a substantial direction long-term. This week is a prospect edition, but we hope to bring this feature back in an MLB sense as well.

Prospects on the Rise

Ben: Joey Gallo, 3B, Rangers
Gallo entered the year as one of the most notorious boom-or-bust prospects in all of baseball, and the space between his floor and ceiling is still great enough to cause some concern. But Gallo has done his damnedest to answer our questions about his approach and the utility of his hit tool so far this season. The 20-year-old hit .323/.463/.735 in High-A in 246 PA, cutting his strikeout rate to 26 percent while raising his walk rate to 20.7 percent. He’s always going to swing and miss, and if he’s striking out in a quarter of his PA now he’s an easy candidate for 200-plus strikeouts at the MLB level. But Gallo is absolutely murdering the ball when he does make contact, and his new selectivity at the plate makes him a safer proposition than the player we saw last year.

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Related Content:  Prospects,  Fantasy,  Dynasty Leagues,  Keeper Leagues

7 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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MaineSkin

Yeah, Betts in CF is meh. Give me Pompey w/the possible ++ skill over another Bradley type little engine that could, but won't.

Jun 11, 2014 07:03 AM
rating: -2
 
BP staff member Ben Carsley
BP staff

At the point where I just scream "MAINESKINNNNN" like "KAHHHN" whenever you comment on Red Sox prospects.

Jun 11, 2014 07:04 AM
 
Nojsztat

More of this, please. I agree with the notion of looking at long-term outlooks over short term "stock watches".

Jun 11, 2014 08:39 AM
rating: 1
 
patsmack

Can I get a little Michael A. Taylor action?

Jun 11, 2014 14:43 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

Well, we were only picking two per section so that we could return to this feature throughout the year but off the cuff...

he'd be a neutral for me. He's striking out in 31.6% of plate appearances (career high) and while he's walking in a career high 11.6%, a nine percentage point jump in strikeout rate is concerning.

His slash line is beautiful but deceiving. He's never cracked .270 in terms of batting average and his .447 BABIP is doing most of the work there. The power is encouraging (he's already at a career high there), but I don't know that it lasts. He's 23 at Double-A which isn't old for the level, but isn't young either.

I'm still reserving judgement to see what happens when half the balls he puts in play aren't falling for hits, and how he'll react to that adversity. It's a nice skillset, no doubt, but the question was on the functionality of the hit tool and I tend to think there's too much BABIP noise to judge with any accuracy whether that's changed at all.

Jun 11, 2014 14:49 PM
 
patsmack

Would you value him above Goodwin? I'm apt to buy with Goodwin descending.

Jun 11, 2014 15:06 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

If I have to pick one I'm picking Goodwin, but I'm not particularly optimistic on either's fantasy future.

Jun 11, 2014 21:48 PM
 
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<< Previous Article
The 2013 Redraft (06/10)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: Idea... (06/03)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: Prog... (06/18)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Top 50 Dynasty League ... (06/11)

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