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June 9, 2014

Fantasy Freestyle

Perception and (Valuation) Reality

by Mike Gianella


For the most part, the idea of buying low and selling high is a waste of everybody’s time.

We all know that Mark Buehrle and Tim Hudson aren’t going to finish the season with earned run averages of 2.04 and 1.97, respectively. It is extremely unlikely that Nelson Cruz will finish the year with 60 home runs and 150 runs batted in. We even know that the superstars who are crushing it now are going to slip somewhat. If you were going to bet the over/under on Troy Tulowitzki hitting .360 or Giancarlo Stanton hitting 45 home runs, the safe bet on both would be the under.

Thankfully, no serious analyst has bothered dispensing this type of advice in years. However, there is a certain type of groupthink that does exist in fantasy circles, and I am not immune to its charms. A player develops a reputation as undervalued or overvalued and manages to maintain that reputation even after the numbers tell us it just isn’t so. This week, I am going to take a look at a few examples of players who fall into this trap and what we can learn from our misperceptions. Real opportunities to “buy low” or “sell high” come from a gap in perceived value versus real fantasy earnings; my hope here is to not merely tab guys as “buy low” or “sell high” but to provide useful information you can use going forward.

Valuations and rankings are through games played on Saturday, June 7.

Billy Hamilton: The Early Confirmation Bias

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Related Content:  Fantasy,  Buying Low,  Selling High

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<< Previous Article
Prospects Will Break Y... (06/08)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Kee... (06/05)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: In-... (06/13)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article The Buyer's Guide: Pab... (06/09)

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