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May 16, 2014

PECOTA Takes on Prospects

UPSIDE at Second Base

by Andrew Koo


Series introduction and methodology
Previous positions: Catcher | First Base

Here’s a chart of production by position in 2013:

Position

PA

TAv

WARP

1B

20581

.281

63.6

2B

20638

.261

63.0

Last week, I talked about the offense required from first basemen to offset their negative positional adjustment. This week, we explore second base, whose occupants hit 20 points of True Average worse last season but produced the same total WARP. This demonstrates the defensive gap we’re familiar with while also illustrating the low offensive bar for second basemen. One needed to produce a TAv of only .261 while playing average defense to be a “league average” second baseman last year (league-average TAv is always scaled to be .260). Gregor Blanco personified the league average hitter in 2013—and he had the 114th-best TAv out of 141 qualified batters.

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Related Content:  Prospects,  Minor Leagues,  PECOTA,  UPSIDE

14 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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kgbacengro

Just curious if Dilson Herrera is considered a 2B or SS for these purposes......please say SS....

May 16, 2014 04:27 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Andrew Koo
BP staff

He's a second baseman. Played all his games there last year.

May 16, 2014 06:39 AM
 
Jquinton82

How do you guys not have profar included?

May 16, 2014 06:04 AM
rating: -1
 
BP staff member Andrew Koo
BP staff

He's still a shortstop to us. UPSIDE likes him very much.

May 16, 2014 06:38 AM
 
BradleyT16

where is micah Johnson on this list?

May 16, 2014 07:47 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Andrew Koo
BP staff

Pretty far down. PECOTA doesn't think he's a great hitter in the future, and despite his great production at Low-A last year, he was rather old for the level; when he ascended to High-A, he experienced quite a drop off (still old for the level, too). PECOTA thinks he can scrap together a career being a poor hitter but playing (very) good second base and stealing bases--though scouts disagree with his high FRAA, which contributes half his projected value. His top comp is Eric Young Jr.

May 16, 2014 08:22 AM
 
JamesP469

Where would Tommy La Stella be on this list?

May 16, 2014 09:23 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Andrew Koo
BP staff

La Stella nears non-prospect status because of his age and profile. PECOTA compares him to a slew of utility types; the UPSIDE (10) suggests he's a backup. He can hit, sure, but it's an empty batting average and he lacks any kind of upside elsewhere. That's not unplayable at second base at all (he would HAVE to keep hitting like he is now), but PECOTA really doesn't like his defense.

May 16, 2014 10:01 AM
 
CRP13

DeShields is not a 2B anymore. I know you're just looking at last year's stats, but he's an OF now.

May 16, 2014 10:24 AM
rating: 0
 
CRP13

That's quite an UPSIDE score for Altuve. 265.7

Greatest-all-time? Or typo? :)

May 16, 2014 10:24 AM
rating: 0
 
OuagadougouGM

Altuve has a lot of room to grow...hehe

May 16, 2014 12:30 PM
rating: 3
 
tomterp

If/when Zimmerman returns, Rendon moves back to 2nd full time. How would he rate for upside among that group?

May 16, 2014 17:50 PM
rating: 0
 
oldbopper

I just finished watching Betts play 3 games. Mookie went 6-13 with 2 doubles, a 400+ foot HR, a couple of BB's and steals. I have been watching baseball for longer than any of the math whizzes at BP have been alive. Forget the Portland Sea Dogs, I used to watch the Portland Pilots, (New England League in the 40's) and there has never been a skill set like this on such a small player that I can recall. It will be very interesting to see if he can carry this all the way. As the article says, he has to drive PECOTA crazy and the comparison of Betts to Butler must be the most bizarre ever(LOL). The funniest, and best, moment was seeing him stand on 1st base next to 6'5"- 275lb Kennys Vargas. I was thinking as I watched them if there had ever been such a difference in size between two players.

May 16, 2014 18:17 PM
rating: 5
 
melotticus

Adam Dunn vs Jose Altuve

May 22, 2014 08:26 AM
rating: 1
 
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