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May 15, 2014

TTO Scoresheet Podcast

Sell-High Candidates

by Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss


Last week, we explored some potential buy-low trade targets for your Scoresheet team. In a shocking twist, this week we examine players we’d consider selling. We break these sell-high candidates into two groups: ones to market to the non-BP crowd and ones you should trade to owners with a BP subscription who foolishly skipped over this article.

For the Traditional Crowd
Please note that we aren’t using the term “traditional” in any sort of derogatory sense. Much of Scoresheet operates based on the principles of batting average and ERA, and some owners are comfortable building their teams around these statistics. While we wouldn’t expect you to be able to fleece any of these types of owners, you might be able to turn a profit by marketing the players below to them.

As a classic sell-high candidate, Jarrod Saltalamacchia is riding a month of posting a walk rate and an isolated power level that would each rank with his career highs if he keeps it up, a combination he’s never before been able to sustain. Unless you believe that his rate of swinging at or making contact with pitches outside the strike zone is making a material change at this point in his career, most of his other performance indicators are in line with his career norms. He’s definitely going to beat his pre-season PECOTA projection of a .227/.293/.395 triple-slash, line but he can’t sustain his current pace for much longer.

Jake Peavy is currently sporting a shiny sub 4.00 ERA, but his peripherals indicate he’s gotten lucky to allow so few runs, thanks mostly to a career high walk rate (over 5.0 BB/9, as of this writing, over 13 percent of batters faced). Quickly, before it’s too late, peddle Peavy to a contender looking for solid innings that may not know that his FIP is over a run higher than his ERA. He's healthy so far and that's also unlikely to continue throughout the year, so if you get a reasonable offer, don't be too stingy.

On a team of surprises and breakouts, Charlie Blackmon has already doubled his career HR total this year, doubled his career WARP, and is posting an OPS he’s only once matched throughout the minors. Coming into the season as a guy that looked like he might end up as having marginal major-league value—which is an upgrade over visions of a classic Quad-A kind of guy—he’s managed to suppress his strikeout rate by making contact with over 95 percent of the pitches he swings at inside the strike zone and ride an incredible HR/FB rate to a tremendous output of .342/.375/.597. Both are unlikely to be sustainable, so if you can find takers willing to give you a return that approximates something close to the upper limits of reasonable expectations—something like a .900 OPS—take the deal and be happy knowing that you cashed some of that value.

Jose Abreu. He’s pretty great, right? We think it’s worth considering thanking your lucky stars that you drafted him and moving him along, however. Even given his prodigious talent, he’s likely performing at the top of his ability, and no one has as of yet seen him fail. Once that insanely high home run to fly ball ratio comes back to earth a bit, he’ll likely settle in as an average or above average starting first baseman. As we’ve discussed before, we feel that’s generally a luxury for a Scoresheet team, and you can best find value elsewhere. It may be worth dangling Abreu to a contender in need of offense or some sort of spark in search of a more stable player elsewhere in your lineup.

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Related Content:  Scoresheet,  Fantasy,  Selling High

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<< Previous Article
Premium Article Draft Ten Pack: Whom W... (05/14)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article TTO Scoresheet Podcast... (05/09)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article TTO Scoresheet Podcast... (05/22)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: The... (05/15)

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