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May 7, 2014

Draft Ten Pack

Whom Would You Draft?

by Nick J. Faleris


We’re a month from the MLB First Year Player Draft (June 5–7), and it’s time to narrow our focus to those names who will play a prominent role on draft day. This week’s entry in the Draft Ten Pack put ten BP and Perfect Game prospect-team members in decision-making roles. The rules of this “mock” were simple: pick the player you would pick if you were calling the shots for your assigned team. These selections were not made with organizational preference in mind, or with a nod toward any real-world hints about which targets these organizations have begun to zero in on.

1:1 Houston Astros
Making Selection: Ron Shah
Selects: Brady Aiken, LHP, Cathedral Catholic (San Diego, CA)

Scouting Video (via Perfect Game USA)

Taking a prep player is often associated with high risk for plenty of reasons: the lack of usable analytics available; unpolished, unrefined players; and a longer development path, which allows for more to go wrong. However, Aiken has shown he is the complete package, making me comfortable selecting him with the no. 1 overall pick. Aiken shows two plus or better offerings in his fastball and breaking ball, with a changeup not far behind on any given outing. The fastball now sits at 92, touching 97. The 76-78 mph curveball is a present plus offering that will flash plus-plus. The 82 mph changeup is solid-average, flashing plus at times. Aiken has also started to throw a mid-80s cutter, but it is seldom used at present. This all comes from an athletic, 6-foot-4 southpaw with a plus command profile, a clean delivery and the frame to add more weight.

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Related Content:  Draft,  Prospects,  Scouting,  Minor Leagues,  Mock Drafts

23 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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Shawnykid23

Interesting that 8/10 are pitchers. Would you say it's more due a very strong pitching class, or a weak hitting class?

May 07, 2014 04:50 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Nick Faleris
BP staff

More the former, but it is a shallow class for collegiate positional prospects for sure.

May 07, 2014 05:08 AM
 
jonjacoby

Were the 2010-12 Draft strong in prep hitters because that could explain the week collegiate hitter crop this year, if they all signed out of HS.

Or is it more of a cyclical thing?

May 07, 2014 07:32 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Nick Faleris
BP staff

It was a pretty monster class in 2011, but the fact that it was the last year of "free spending" probably had more to do with high schoolers getting gobbled up than a special spike in talent. That said, you might recognize some of these names (2011 high school position players):

Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez, Bubba Starling, Austin Hedges, Bubba Starling, Austin Hedges, Blake Swihart, Josh Bell, Dan Vogelbach.

May 07, 2014 08:23 AM
 
Kyle Matte

If Holmes and Toussaint are both off the board when Toronto picks at nine, my excitement will deflate faster than the Hindenburg. :(

May 07, 2014 05:28 AM
rating: 0
 
BERSMR

Do you see any kind of tiers among this elite group? For example, do you think that 1-4 might go in a different order but are likely to be the first four in some order?

May 07, 2014 07:17 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Nick Faleris
BP staff

Tiering in this class is a little odd (which I'll touch on later this month). The lines tend to blur between the tiers, so you have clusters and very small incremental steps. The result (for me) is you start slotting guys and sort of transition into tiers without there being a distinct bright line dividing them.

That said, the top four are generally the top four, though Holmes would be neck and neck with Aiken and Kolek if he had a little more size. A bunch of the college arms could easily end up popped in that top five space for a variety of reasons. The high school arms are a huge collection of awesome -- you can make arguments for 20-plus kids being defendable Day 1 selections.

May 07, 2014 08:27 AM
 
jpmile

How far has Jacob Gatewood fallen?

May 07, 2014 07:54 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Nick Faleris
BP staff

I think workouts could make or break his value. If he has a strong enough workout with the right team he should be a mid-first round guy, maybe higher. If not, probably late 1st to supplemental to a team with multiple picks. Wide range of potential landing spots.

May 07, 2014 08:19 AM
 
maxjusttyped

Was this done before news came out about Hoffman's elbow? Apparently he had a setback.

May 07, 2014 08:09 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

I was working with the information that they were just being cautious and that he had some minor fluid buildup that wasn't a major cause for concern. If things have developed since then, I wasn't aware of it.

May 07, 2014 08:13 AM
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

And things have certainly developed.....he gone

May 07, 2014 11:23 AM
 
BP staff member Nick Faleris
BP staff

And we have our first topic for Dissecting the Draft series...

May 07, 2014 11:48 AM
 
cjgeisler
(199)

Was a bit surprised Trea Turner didn't at least get consideration. Could you touch on where his stock currently sits?

May 07, 2014 09:43 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Nick Faleris
BP staff

I welcome any of the other participants to share their thoughts. For me, he isn't close to a top five overall profile. I think it's a stretch to view him as a top ten guy given the glut of high ceilinged talent available in the class and his inconsistencies throughout the spring. Like Gatewood, however, it only takes one team to buy into the package for him to get popped early. I'd guess 11-20 range, but wouldn't be wholly surprised to see him slip to late first round.

May 07, 2014 10:01 AM
 
BP staff member Ron Shah
BP staff

At 1.1, I wasn't considering him. I'd take Gordon over Turner quite comfortably, too.

May 07, 2014 13:21 PM
 
iorg34

Are the Twins picking 5th in a 4 stud draft? Odds that one of the top 4 drop?

May 07, 2014 09:59 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Nick Faleris
BP staff

I don't think so. There will be potential impact talent available to Minnesota at 1:5, as well as lower risk/quick return propositions. Five is a fine spot to pick in this draft.

May 07, 2014 10:04 AM
 
BP staff member Ron Shah
BP staff

I agree with Nick. Now, I don't think they would take Holmes or a prep arm. It's rather unprecedented to take a prep arm with such high picks in back-to-back drafts. But if they wanted to, Holmes would be a fine choice.

May 07, 2014 13:09 PM
 
NYCRuss

With Zimmer falling out of the top-10, where do you see him going? What do you believe that his ceiling is?

May 07, 2014 10:27 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Nick Faleris
BP staff

Ceiling from a draft slot perspective? Bottom of the top 10. I think the profile is a better fit in the mid-1st. Solid everyday guy with a chance at above-average CF. Good value.

May 07, 2014 10:30 AM
 
Mike

Can Jason redo his pick now that Hoffman is out?

May 07, 2014 12:00 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Nick Faleris
BP staff

No because then he would take my pick!

May 07, 2014 12:25 PM
 
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