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May 5, 2014

Pebble Hunting

Who's Winning the Dodgers/Red Sox Trade This Second?

by Sam Miller


The gods had condemned Collettius to ceaselessly having his most famous trade reanalyzed on the internet, whence the analysis would fall back of its own weight. They had thought with some reason that there is no more dreadful punishment than futile and hopeless reanalysis.

If this myth is tragic, that is because its hero is conscious. The workman of today works every day in his life at the same tasks, and this fate is no less absurd. But it is tragic only at the rare moments when it becomes conscious. Collettius, proletarian of the gods, powerless and rebellious, knows the whole extent of his wretched condition: it is what he thinks of during his descent. The lucidity that was to constitute his torture at the same time crowns his victory. There is no fate that cannot be surmounted by scorn.

Albert Camus, baseball blogger

***

On Aug. 25, 2012, when the Dodgers took three of the Boston Red Sox’ biggest contracts, Ned Colletti accepted one other burden: More than a half-decade of second-guessing. With Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford each locked up for more than five years, it would be at least that long before we’d be able to close the book on the move. For that matter, with Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa potentially on the cusp of long big-league careers—great careers, for all we knew/know​—Colletti’s exposure to second-guessing might run through 2020 or longer.

Sure, you might argue (shoot, I have argued) that a trade should be evaluated only on the day it’s made, that everything that comes afterward falls under You Can’t Predict Baseball. But that’s no fun, and that’s not human nature. So with each hot and cold streak, each buzz from Pawtucket or DL stint in Los Angeles, each shift in the real-world standings, there’s a corresponding shift in the Who Won This Trade standings. With Adrian Gonzalez currently leading the National League in home runs, it’s worth not worth, but too tempting to avoid asking, who won this trade? To the rolling Who Won This Trade timeline!

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10 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

ttt

Did the Red Sox trade winning go to eleven?

May 05, 2014 05:15 AM
rating: 2
 
oldbopper

As a dyed in the wool Red Sox fan who saw his first game at Fenway in 1948, and his last two last Thursday, I would not stop at a mere 11 on a scale of 1-10 but would go to infinity because there can be no measure of what THE TRADE did to rejuvenate the SOX.

May 05, 2014 07:20 AM
rating: 2
 
hcaeb2000

I think the thing this article misses is that the Red Sox won the World Series last year probably in huge part due to the fact that they were able to dump these guys. I see this as a win for the Red Sox no matter what happens from here to 2020. Crawford and Beckett are 4th OF 5th starter type players these days. Gonzales is still good but like I said World Series. That trade was as much about getting rid of cancer as it was about getting rid of pay roll.

May 05, 2014 06:06 AM
rating: 1
 
oldbopper

It was clear to all Sox fans, and even the front office, that these were, as you say, three cancers. Crawford was awful! There is no other way of saying it. Beckett didn't appear to give a s___, and Gonzalez had the gall to say that we Red Sox fans take our baseball too seriously. At the time the trade was made virtually every Sox fan would have taken 3 used Chattanooga Lookout uniforms with nobody in them for the players. Even if Webster and De La Rosa never develop this trade was the best ever and that is really saying something when you consider that the Sox stole Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe from the Mariners in 1997 for, can you believe, Heathcliff Slocumb.

May 05, 2014 07:32 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Sam Miller
BP staff

I don't think the article misses that

May 05, 2014 08:39 AM
 
jemw06

I'm assuming, which is a dangerous endeavor I know, that the lack of mention of the Red Sox in this article was simply because we need no explanation of how the trade went for them. They offloaded big contracts, made very good low cost veteran signings in the off-season and won the world series. That's been written about hundreds of times already.

At this point, it actually looks like both teams could come out ahead in this deal. That trade supplemented, as well as the addition of HanRam made the Dodgers contenders. New ownership, willingness to pay for talent, and the arrival of Puig have turned that franchise around.

The Red Sox, have since won the World Series, both teams have seen substantially positive changes in their fates since that trade.

Well done both sides?

May 05, 2014 07:14 AM
rating: 6
 
lmarighi

To his credit, he did post a graph for the Red Sox at the end of the article.

May 05, 2014 15:45 PM
rating: 1
 
Lyford

"Sure, you might argue (shoot, I have argued) that a trade should be evaluated only on the day it’s made, that everything that comes afterward falls under You Can’t Predict Baseball."

It depends on whether you're evaluating the trade decision or the trade result, which are two completely different things. In evaluating the GMs, you've got to evaluate the decision, and that evaluation has to happen with what you know at the trade time.

But whether the trade was "good trade" from the outcome point-of-view is a completely different issue. No one would argue that emptying your bank account to buy Powerball tickets is a good idea, but if you then hit the jackpot, it was a bad idea with a good result. Post-trade evaluation of results tends to be interesting and worthwhile - it's just important to recognize that evaluating results and evaluating decisions are not the same thing.

May 05, 2014 07:47 AM
rating: 6
 
oldbopper

Your point is well taken and the fact that the Red Sox did not need any return whatsoever from the players they received to make it a great trade certainly indicates that the Red Sox can never be perceived as anything less than the winners in this deal.

May 05, 2014 17:01 PM
rating: 0
 
larlaro

Ultimately, unless and until the Dodgers win a title with Gonzalez, Crawford and Beckett being key contributors, it's always going to be Red Sox as winners of the deal. FFF!

May 05, 2014 23:30 PM
rating: 0
 
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