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May 1, 2014

PECOTA Takes on Prospects

PECOTA + Catchers 4ever

by Andrew Koo


Does PECOTA love catchers?

After we released the PECOTA Top 100 prospects list last week, a few commenters remarked on PECOTA’s apparent catcher leanings. Eleven of them appeared on the list, some higher than nationally beloved prospects. How dare PECOTA! In comparison, Jason Parkstop 101 featured eight catchers, suggesting a small discrepancy in the position distribution of PECOTA’s rankings.

Three additional catchers isn’t a significant difference, really, and with due respect to Jason and his exceptional team, it’s not like PECOTA must conform to our prospect authority. PECOTA’s methodology is completely different, meant to provide a complementary view, and if we trust its process, we should trust its results. If those results diverge from popular opinion, even better: maybe the stats are telling us something.

That doesn’t mean the process is perfect. All models have chinks in the code. I wrote about “positional upside” in the introduction:

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Related Content:  Prospects,  Minor Leagues,  PECOTA,  Projections

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