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April 29, 2014

The Stash List

Third Edition

by Bret Sayre


We’ll keep the introduction short this week, but it’s the perfect time to touch on a very important topic, both when trying to predict which prospects will have both 2014 and long-term value.

Minor league statistics are deceiving. That’s not to say they can’t be informative, because they do tell the story of what has actually happened in professional games, but they don’t come close to explaining the whole picture. Take Eddie Butler for example—he’s been pitching well in Triple-A, but with the lowest strikeout rate of his minor league career. You could read this as a bad sign when you’re flipping through his Baseball Reference page, but the reality is that the stuff is still just as good as 2013 (if not better), and the Rockies are asking him to pitch to contact more.

This is not an uncommon occurrence in the minor leagues—after all, it is part of the developmental process. And so is having players do things that are out of their comfort zone or work heavily on parts of their game that are seen as areas for improvement. This happens more with pitchers, as a minor league coaching staff may dictate how many breaking balls or changeups a pitchers needs to throw over the course of an outing. It happens with hitters too, as they may be asked to focus on an opposite field approach or to not sell out for power as heavily.

This is the crux of why scouting is so important when it comes to evaluating prospects for fantasy baseball. If you’re looking at a player’s stat page, you’re only getting a piece of the puzzle. The more pieces you get, the better you’ll be able to evaluate the next wave of major-league stars.

And speaking of the next wave of major-league stars, let’s dive into The Stash List 3.0:

The Graduates:

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19 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

DanDaMan

I don't really have much dead weight on my bench, would you drop Venable to stash Polanco? And just to make sure I have this right- if the organization is planning on locking up a youngster by buying out their arbitration years early, then they're not concerned with service time/super 2 status. Is that correct?

Apr 29, 2014 04:45 AM
rating: 0
 
Behemoth

That is right, as long as they can reach a deal. Not all clubs are willing to do this before a player has even played in the majors though. Also if they do promote him before any deal, and he hits, he's just given himself a lot more leverage, as it would be awfully difficult to send him down again to stop him getting super-2 if there is no deal.

Apr 29, 2014 05:12 AM
rating: 0
 
kvamlnk

(no reason to take my opinion seriously)
I have Venable in a 16 team league where Polanco is stashed and am considering offering Venable for Polanco. In your situation, I'd drop Venable for Polanco.

Apr 29, 2014 08:51 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

If you aren't currently starting Venable, I would. But it's kinda close.

Apr 29, 2014 09:44 AM
 
Gotribe31

Carrasco to the bullpen (announced last night). But the Indians don't need a 5th starter until May 9, so unclear as to what they'll do when that spot finally comes back around. Guessing it's Bauer though.

Apr 29, 2014 07:59 AM
rating: 0
 
middagh

Thanks, Bret. What are your thoughts re Alex Meyer and Jonathan Gray?

Apr 29, 2014 08:28 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

I like both a good amount in the long-term, and Meyer was very close to being added this week. The problem with him is that the Twins are likely to monitor his innings very carefully and there's absolutely no reason to bring him up before Super Two has passed. That leaves a small window for which he can contribute this year, and there's no guarantee that he'll be successful in that stretch. I keep thinking there's very little chance we see Gray this year, but he keeps changing my mind start-by-start. Think Butler gets there first, but maybe August now--which is exciting.

Apr 29, 2014 09:47 AM
 
JHGrimm

Regarding the Indians, their depth starters' AAA stats:

Bauer: 28K, 7 BB, 25.2 IP
Tomlin: 18K, 9 BB, 26.0 IP

If one puts stock in kwERA/FIP-like stats, the quality of their depth starters doesn't appear to be peculiarly close.

Apr 29, 2014 08:46 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

The point is that their performing similarly enough that the Indians could go in either direction. If Bauer's the seventh starter, his value goes way down in redraft leagues.

Apr 29, 2014 09:48 AM
 
freeross

Any thoughts on Alex Guerrero? Hitting .348/.434/.630, on 40-man roster and no service time concerns.

Apr 29, 2014 09:30 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

He's been lingering around the back part of the list each go around so far, but fell off this one. I just don't see the Dodgers rushing to displace Gordon, who's been pretty great thus far. Also, there continue to be defensive concerns about Guerrero which play a role here.

Apr 29, 2014 09:49 AM
 
JustinRKlein

No Dylan Bundy on the list seems surprising. Is it because of the injury concern?

Alos, do you think Heaney comes up sooner than Stroman and is therefore ranked ahead of him, or does he have a greater fantasy impact this season? Both?

Apr 29, 2014 15:03 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

There's no reason for the Orioles to rush Bundy into anything and Gausman is ahead of him on the depth chart anyway. I wouldn't be surprised if Bundy acts as a reliever at the major league level in August/September.

And yes, Heaney over Stroman for performance, not timing. Though I do think we'll see Heaney in May.

Apr 30, 2014 10:57 AM
 
rfox547

No Joc Pederson in the discussion? I realize he is blocked, but couldn't he force his way in some time soon? I'm as excited about his arrival as anyone on this list.

Apr 29, 2014 22:17 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

You answered your own question. He has nowhere to play. Love his potential long-term, but he certainly seems to be in the wrong organization. Would take a trade and an injury to get him in there.

Apr 30, 2014 10:57 AM
 
waltschmidt

I've got Archie Bradley stashed in my NA spot. Now with news that he's being shut down for two weeks with elbow problems, I'm considering using that spot for Syndergaard or Heaney. With one spot in a non-keeper league, who is the best bet for impact?

Apr 30, 2014 05:34 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

I'd stash Syndergaard of the two, and I'd cut Bradley for him.

Apr 30, 2014 10:58 AM
 
Nojsztat

Always good to have perspective like you provided on Butler. But, he's still with Double A Tulsa, hasn't been promoted to Triple A Colorado Springs, at least not yet.

Apr 30, 2014 07:52 AM
rating: 0
 
russell

How long is it until Polanco passes the super2 cutoff?

May 01, 2014 16:42 PM
rating: 0
 
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<< Previous Article
Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: NL E... (04/29)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article The Stash List: Second... (04/22)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article The Stash List: Fourth... (05/06)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Minor League Update: G... (04/29)

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