CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Fantasy Article Closer Report: Week Fi... (04/29)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: AL C... (04/22)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: AL E... (05/06)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article The Stash List: Third ... (04/29)

April 29, 2014

Dynasty Dynamics

NL East U25 Lists

by Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

To read the earlier editions in the U25 series, click below:

For this exercise, we're each going to rank our top-30 U25 fantasy players by division before we collaborate on a top-150 list once this portion of the project is complete. For each division, we'll give you our individual rankings and then discuss any major discrepancies in our rankings, talk about some sleepers we wanted to rank higher and take cheap shots at each other along the way. It will be like the TINO podcast, but for your eyes, complete with an imaginary Bret Sayre breaking up our fights.

Just like with the preseason organizational top prospect lists, players will have to be born after April 1, 1988 to qualify, and just like with the preseason lists, there is of course an element of subjectivity that comes with these rankings. But unlike the preseason lists, these rankings are all about fantasy.

Ben's Rankings

Craig's Rankings

1. Bryce Harper, OF, WAS

1. Bryce Harper, OF, WAS

2. Jose Fernandez, SP, MIA

2. Jose Fernandez, SP, MIA

3. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA

3. Stephen Strasburg, SP, WAS

4. Stephen Strasburg, SP, WAS

4. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA

5. Jason Heyward, OF, ATL

5. Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL

6. Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL

6. Jason Heyward, OF, ATL

7. Julio Teheran, SP, ATL

7. Anthony Rendon, 2B/3B, WAS

8. Craig Kimbrel, RP, ATL

8. Matt Harvey, SP, NYM

9. Anthony Rendon, 2B/3B, WAS

9. Julio Teheran, SP, ATL

10. Matt Harvey, SP, NYM

10. Craig Kimbrel, RP, ATL

11. Christian Yelich, OF, MIA

11. Zack Wheeler, SP, NYM

12. Zack Wheeler, SP, NYM

12. Noah Syndergaard, SP, NYM

13. Noah Syndergaard, SP, NYM

13. Lucas Giolito, SP, WAS

14. Lucas Giolito, SP, WAS

14. Christian Yelich, OF, MIA

15. Andrelton Simmons, SS, ATL

15. Andrelton Simmons, SS, ATL

16. Alex Wood, SP, ATL

16. Alex Wood, SP, ATL

17. Maikel Franco, 3B/1B, PHI

17. Travis d’Arnaud, C, NYM

18. Travis d’Arnaud, C, NYM

18. Andrew Heaney, SP, MIA

19. Andrew Heaney, SP, MIA

19. Maikel Franco, 3B/1B, PHI

20. Ben Revere, OF, PHI

20. Ben Revere, OF, PHI

21. Wilmer Flores, 2B/3B, NYM

21. Marcell Ozuna, OF, MIA

22. Lucas Sims, SP, ATL

22. Nathan Eovaldi, SP, MIA

23. Marcell Ozuna, OF, MIA

23. Lucas Sims, SP, ATL

24. Jake Marisnick, OF, MIA

24. Jenrry Mejia, SP, NYM

25. Nathan Eovaldi, SP, MIA

25. J.P Crawford, SS, PHI

26. Brian Goodwin, OF, WAS

26. Jacob Turner, SP, MIA

27. Jenrry Mejia, SP, NYM

27. Rafael Montero, SP, NYM

28. J.P. Crawford, SS, PHI

28. Brian Goodwin, OF, WAS

29. Colin Moran, 3B, MIA

29. Jake Marisnick, OF, MIA

30. Jesse Biddle, SP, PHI

30. Wilmer Flores, 2B/3B, NYM

Disagreement One: Wilmer Flores

Craig’s Take: I actually thought I liked Flores a decent amount coming into this, but I guess I showed myself what’s what. Flores can hit, to be sure, but my main concern is how much of that will result in an empty average, and at what position he’ll have eligibility. Defense isn’t a huge fantasy concern, especially since both second and third base are rather short on quality bats right now, but if he can’t hack it defensively at second base, he’s got nowhere to play with Wright in town. I’m not sure he’s a .300 hitter, and if he can’t slug .450, I’m just not sure where that lands him as a fantasy property. Add in the lack of a route to playing time, and I just couldn’t make a strong case for him over the rest of the list.

Ben’s Take: I think we agree on Flores’ profile, but I suppose we disagree on what sort of value that profile provides. If Flores can hit .280 with 12-15 homers at second base—basically Neil Walker—that’s someone I take over no. 5 fantasy starters or flawed outfielders like Ozuna, Marisnick, and Goodwin. I don’t have an issue ranking Sims or Crawford above him if you’re going for pure upside, but I think Flores will be usable in most leagues as soon as later this year, even if that means he’s dealt from the organization. He’s not the superstar that some forecasted many years ago, but I think he starts for someone for a long time. Maybe the floor is Alberto Callaspo, but the ceiling is someone you feel good about starting at MI, and that could be his reality soon.

Craig’s Take: I think it’s fair to say Neil Walker is around what we’re talking about, but that’s before factoring in playing time for me. I agree, he could be traded and that would change things for me, but I also think there’s a good chance he’s less than Neil Walker and that player is more of a utility guy than anything. As you said, we agree on the profile, but I’m discounting his immediate playing time more than you are. I don’t think you’re being unreasonable, I just worry about overvaluing a player with a Neil Walker profile and nowhere to play.

Ben’s Take: The Mets are getting better, but if they’re going to play Daniel Murphy at second I just don’t see how they can justify sitting on a talent like Flores—they have to turn him into something usable. That being said, it’s the Mets. Now I really want the Mets and Mariners to make a Wilmer Flores for Nick Franklin swap now. Would anything be more Mets and Mariners?

Craig’s Take: I feel like the Mets would force Franklin to buy his own ticket to NY, and the Mariners would convert Flores to left field and then immediately option him.

Imaginary Bret: Stop picking on the Mets! (Google Image searches Dominic Smith.)

Disagreement Two: Jake Marisnick

Ben’s Take: I’ve been a Marisnick fanboy for a really long time now, and I can accept the argument that I’m a bit higher on him here than most. But I really, really like his power-speed combination, and I do think he’ll hit enough to use those tools to their maximum efficiency once he faces more reasonable developmental expectations. Marisnick has been pushed aggressively through the minors since 2012, when modest struggles in High-A were overlooked in favor of an assignment to Double-A. That trend continued, when the Marlins exposed him to the majors way too soon because Marlins. I know his numbers haven’t looking great lately, but I think this is a player who will excel once he’s given some time at an appropriate level, though I acknowledge that the concerns about his hit tool are reasonable.

Craig’s Take: Marisnick is the same type of guy as Brian Goodwin for me, with the whole being less than the sum of his parts. I love the profile of his tools, but there’s enough concern about hit tool (and its effect on letting his power function) that I couldn’t push him up any higher. He’s definitely talented, but I’m not sure it’s going to manifest itself in a successful player. As much as the Marlins have been aggressive with him, his success last year at Double-A was at 22 years old (on level) and after a 247-plate-appearance stint in 2012. Perhaps he just needs an adjustment period before taking off (similar to 2012/13), but I think major-league pitchers are going to be able to exploit the holes in his swing to the point that he will struggle to maintain much value even with the solid pop and speed combination.

Ben’s Take: Honestly, that’s not an unfair evaluation of Marisnick and if you were a person of better repute, I might be tempted to listen. But I like what I’ve seen of Marisnick in terms of his ability to make adjustments, and he’s shown a willingness to take a walk in the past. I think we can all agree that high averages aren’t going to be a part of his game, but if he can hit .260 with 20 homers and 20 steals, that’s someone I’m going to be interested in owning, especially in OBP leagues. I get that those numbers represent a best-case outcome for Marisnick, but he’s a player I believe in and I’d rather gamble on that profile than a back-end fantasy starter.

Craig’s Take: Yes, well you also wanted to gamble on Roman Quinn, so…
Ben’s Take: Roman wasn’t built in a day. I still believe.
Imaginary Bret: Even for you, that was awful.

Ben’s One Player He Wanted to Rank Higher: Brian Goodwin
Fearless leader Bret Sayre and I have long been co-piloting the Brian Goodwin bandwagon, but I’ll admit that for the first time, my faith in the toolsy outfielder is waning. After a so-so 2013 season that saw Goodwin reach base often but with modest power and a questionable hit tool, the 23-year-old has had a rough start in Triple-A in 2014. I love his upside as an outfielder who can hit for a non-embarrassing average and hit 15 homers with 20 steals, but I’m starting to question his ability to hit, and he faces a long road to playing time with the names in front of him, too. He still has the ceiling of a third fantasy outfielder, but he might end up closer to his floor as an MLB fourth outfielder.

Craig’s One Player He Wanted to Rank Higher: Andrew Heaney
There’s no reasonable argument to put Heaney above a guy like Alex Wood, who has been very good in the major leagues, but I’ll admit that I was tempted. Heaney works with three average pitches, two that could end up in the plus-plus range (though slightly below that is more probable). I think there’s the chance, albeit a slim one, that Heaney is a number two starter, or at least could play one in fantasy thanks to his generous home park. That might be a few years down the line though, so as much as I’d like to be in on him early, there’s no way I could push him higher than I had him.

Ben, say something nice about Craig: When I assailed his character on Twitter earlier this week, some people actually came to his defense. He’s right about ginger beer.
Craig, say something nice about Ben: He can appreciate a good Tony Yayo reference. I’m right about ginger beer.

Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here
Craig Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Craig's other articles. You can contact Craig by clicking here

7 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Fantasy Article Closer Report: Week Fi... (04/29)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: AL C... (04/22)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: AL E... (05/06)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article The Stash List: Third ... (04/29)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Expert FAAB Review: Week 18
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Monday, August...
Fantasy Rounders: Say Uncle, Phil
Premium Article An Agent's Take: Serendipitous Spectatorship
Premium Article What You Need to Know: August 4, 2015
Premium Article Ducks on the Pond: The Kiermaier Can
Premium Article Baseball Therapy: No Relief For Starters

MORE FROM APRIL 29, 2014
Premium Article Baseball Therapy: Do Innings Limits Work?
Premium Article What You Need to Know: Gray Matters
Painting the Black: Singles Falling Steady
Premium Article The Call-Up: Randal Grichuk
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Monday, April ...
Fantasy Article The Stash List: Third Edition
Fantasy Article Closer Report: Week Five

MORE BY BEN CARSLEY
2014-05-05 - Premium Article The Call-Up: Marcus Stroman
2014-05-03 - TINO (There Is No Offseason): Ep. 15: A Coco...
2014-04-30 - Fantasy Article Deep Impact: Week Four
2014-04-29 - Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: NL East U25 Lists
2014-04-25 - TINO (There Is No Offseason): Ep. 14: What's...
2014-04-22 - Premium Article The Call-Up: Luis Sardinas
2014-04-22 - Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: AL Central U25 Lists
More...

MORE DYNASTY DYNAMICS
2014-05-20 - Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: The U25 Top 150, Part Two
2014-05-13 - Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: The U25 Top 150, Part One
2014-05-06 - Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: AL East U25 Lists
2014-04-29 - Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: NL East U25 Lists
2014-04-22 - Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: AL Central U25 Lists
2014-04-15 - Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: NL Central U25 Lists
2014-04-08 - Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: AL West U25 Lists
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2015-04-15 - Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: 2015 U25 Rankings: Nationa...
2014-05-10 - TINO (There Is No Offseason): Ep. 16 -- Just...
2014-05-06 - Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: AL East U25 Lists