CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article What You Need to Know:... (04/28)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pac... (04/21)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pac... (05/05)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Closer Report: Week Fi... (04/29)

April 28, 2014

Monday Morning Ten Pack

April 28, 2014

by Jason Parks and BP Prospect Staff

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Dalton Pompey, CF, Blue Jays (High-A Dunedin)
During the offseason, Pompey’s name was in the running for the Jays top 10 list, and after falling short of that distinction he was in the running (but not chosen) to be named a prospect on the rise in that organization. The omission is our mistake—and a foolish one at that—as the 21-year-old outfielder has blossomed into arguably the top position prospect in the Blue Jays organization, a toolsy dream of a player who is finally healthy and putting the pieces together on the field. A relatively unknown 16th-round draft pick in 2010, Pompey has struggled with injuries, most notably a broken hamate bone, but he has always flashed the promise, especially the plus-plus speed (and plus-plus baserunning) and defensive chops in center field. A switch-hitter at present, Pompey is superior from the left side of the plate, with a quick to-the-ball stroke and gap pop. While he’s far from a finished product—the right-side bat can look like a mess, with poor balance and bat control, and the defense in center is still more raw athleticism than crisp reads and routes—the step forward in 2014 is legitimate, and if Pompey can stay healthy, he should reach the Double-A level at some point during the season and emerge as a nationally recognized prospect. –Jason Parks

Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (Triple-A Indianapolis)
The stage was set for Polanco’s very own hype machine to gain tremendous steam at the outset of the 2014 season. If it weren’t enough that Polanco hit .285/.356/.434 across two levels in 2013, including a solid showing as a 21-year old in Double-A, the Pirates outfielder went to the Dominican Winter League and raked. After a .331/.428/.494 line with five home runs and 10 doubles in 44 games, Polanco ranked as the no. 2 prospect in a strong Pirates system. After that, the hype was rolling in and Polanco’s .402 average and 12 extra-base hits in 22 Triple-A games has only continued to build the anticipation for his arrival. Over the last few days, I have asked multiple veteran scouts about Polanco. After explicitly asking them to identify the fatal flaw that could hold Polanco back, each struggled and could come up only with handling same-side breaking balls; each of them even cautioned that this amounted to nitpicking. Polanco has all the tools to be a future star alongside Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen in the Pirates outfield, and at this point, it is becoming difficult to temper expectations ahead of his major league arrival. –Mark Anderson

Joey Gallo, 3B, Rangers (High-A Myrtle Beach)
Gallo’s prodigious raw power has been well documented since he signed with the organization, and the 38 home runs launched in A-ball last year showed that the 20-year-old third baseman knows how to lift the ball. The swing features max extension and a ton of leverage, which serves as the trigger for his huge raw as well as the area of concern for his hit tool. It’s a double-edged sword.

A typical batting practice session from Gallo features plenty of majestic drives landing over the fence, but the young hitter doesn’t just stand in the cage trying to yank balls over the wall. I was impressed when first seeing the prospect with how he approached his practice sessions, using the whole field and showing an aptitude for his craft. This is a player with a feel for the game. The chatter this month has indicated that Gallo is very relaxed in the box, doing a good job keeping his weight back before unfolding with his swing, and showing some improved selectiveness. There were plate appearances last year when he was very overzealous getting his weight going, and he seemed to be swinging for the sake of swinging. It’s very early in the year, but Gallo’s made an initial adjustment, with success following. Positive results can be a very strong reinforcement. I’ll be very interested to see what happens when the league’s pitchers begin to make countermoves, but my feel says Gallo has taken a good first step toward learning from last season. –Chris Mellen

Jose Berrios, RHP, Twins (High-A Fort Myers)
Young pitchers with advanced stuff can get into stretches of being able to walk through opposing lineups with similar sequences because they are just better than the competition. It was likely a positive in the long run that Berrios wore down toward the end of last season. Why? It forced him to pitch down in the zone more, while also highlighting a key developmental need for the 19-year-old: improved stamina. As good as Berrios’ 92-95 mph fastball, hard breaking curveball and fading changeup can be, they lost some shine when the right-hander hit the wall last year. Not uncommon for arms in their first professional season.

Despite the step up in competition for him this season, I see Berrios being able to adjust well to the Florida State League. Though the prospect might hit some inconsistent stretches, the raw stuff should more than handle opposing lineups. The big thing to watch for is his stamina. If Berrios again experiences a noticeable decline deeper into the season, some of the concerns about his size will get a little louder. It’ll be an area of interest, and a strong factor for whether the prospect can develop into a mid-rotation starter. –Chris Mellen

Eugenio Suarez, SS, Tigers (Double-A, Erie)
In a barren system like Detroit's, Suarez tends to shine more than he would in a deeper system. However, it does not come without merit. Some believe he will not stick at shortstop, but I have seen enough now to think it is feasible. Suarez has a legitimate 60 grade arm and has displayed throws from both sides. His range is perhaps only average, but the arm makes up for most of those deficiencies, and he has soft hands and quick feet. I am particularly impressed with how he works around the base. At the plate, he has minimal power but displays quick hands and ability to pull them inside and handle high-end velocity. His ability to pick up spin off the pitcher's hand is another trait that should not be overlooked. While he won’t be a star at the position, there will be enough to provide some second-division value. –Tucker Blair

Nick Williams, OF, Rangers (High-A, Myrtle Beach)
When most discuss the Rangers and their Myrtle Beach club, they usually think of Joey Gallo and Jorge Alfaro first. However, Nick Williams has the best hit tool of all three and should absolutely be in the conversation with them. Williams displays tremendous hand control and the ability to barrel the ball. Add this to his plus-plus bat speed and extremely underrated power tool, and you have a player worth keeping a close eye on. The power comes from a combination of bat speed, ability to barrel up, and a small lift in the swing. While a free swinger (30-plus strikeouts already), his ability to barrel everything is something that cannot be overlooked. This is a player who could have a 5 power, 7 hit future. My only concern is where he plays defensively, as he is rather adventurous in center field. He displays a fringe-average arm, which might not play well at the corner outfield spots. Regardless, Williams will hit, and he might hit a lot. –Tucker Blair

Tony Kemp, 2B, Astros (High-A Lancaster)
A couple weeks ago I wrote that Kemp’s “actions and instincts at second base need some work.” After multiple looks, Kemp has proved me wrong as he has done nothing but impress at the position. He range has been excellent to both directions. In one game, he ranged a couple steps to his left and made a sprawling catch to snatch a line drive ticketed for right field. In another game, he sprinted up the middle and made a feet-first slide while scooping the ball, popping up and gunning the runner out at first. His arm strength is fringy, but the range he possesses allows him to make plays that an average second baseman couldn’t get to. He doesn’t have much power, but his swing is designed for contact and he has plenty of bat speed to catch up to a good fastball. His eye has impressed as well, walking 15 times to only nine strikeouts so far this season. I can see a utility future for Kemp, one that allows him to play second and all three outfield spots while providing bat-to-ball skills and quality defense. While not a sexy outlook, every team needs a Tony Kemp. –Chris Rodriguez

Mark Appel, RHP, Astros (High-A Lancaster)
In Appel’s last start, the 22-year-old sported an 88-91 mph fastball that simply lacked explosion out of his hand, allowing the opposing lineup to square up the offering with ease. It was my first look at Appel, but the arm looked slow and he seemed to be laboring. Houston’s tandem rotation in High-A may have played a role in the velocity dip, as the routine of throwing every four days (instead of once a week, as in college) might could have been a shock to Appel’s system. The good news is the advanced secondary offerings were present, especially the low-80s changeup that missed bats throughout Appel’s 10-out start. It has been anything but the smoothest of roads for Appel in 2014, and the Stanford product is now heading to extended spring training for a few weeks before going to High-A or Double-A, which would be the more likely assignment of the two. —Ron Shah

Josh Hader, LHP, Astros (High-A Lancaster)
As a former 19th round draft pick, Hader doesn’t get the same recognition as some of his fellow teammates on a loaded High-A roster featuring multiple first round choices. That is to no fault of the recently turned 20-year-old, who is posting a strikeout-to-walk ratio of seven in the hitter-friendly California League and developing just fine. Hader is a unique southpaw, throwing from the low three-quarters slot while working from the extreme third-base side of the rubber. None of Hader's offerings is overpowering, but there’s plenty of deception in the delivery that allows each of them to play up. Just ask Leo Rodriguez, who swung at a pitch that hit him for strike three. Hader's strengths are also his weaknesses, however, as he can lose his arm slot and struggle to repeat his mechanics for five innings or longer. —Ron Shah

Teoscar Hernandez, CF, Astros (High-A Lancaster)
With high-end draft picks Mark Appel and Carlos Correa currently on the shelf for what was recently one of the most prospect-laden clubs in all of the minor leagues, Teoscar Hernandez finds himself as the main attraction at the moment for the Lancaster JetHawks. He doesn't look entirely out of place in the role either, as prospects of his caliber typically would qualify as the big dog on most clubs in affiliated ball.

Hernandez brings a lot to the prospect table. The combination of above-average present speed (evidenced by home-to-first times in the 4.2 range) and above-average bat speed with remaining projection makes him a very interesting prospect. His frame projects for continued strength gains, giving him the potential to develop his raw power to its near plus ceiling. The question going forward will be how well that power will translate given his contact ability, which is currently being challenged at the age-appropriate High-A level. Hernandez's approach is aggressive, and he frequently lengthens his swing to attack the baseball. He has the physical tools to accomplish that goal, though his walk rate will likely remain low for as long as he continues to either check-swing or swing at every pitch.

On defense, he combines above-average speed with the necessary skills at this stage in the development curve to translate into quality defense in center field, despite possessing slightly below-average yet playable arm strength. From a raw tools standpoint, Hernandez possesses the upside of a first-division regular if everything clicks, though he seems to profile more realistically as a fourth outfielder/second-division regular. This type of profile would qualify Hernandez as one of the better prospects in many systems. —Todd Gold

Jason Parks is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Jason's other articles. You can contact Jason by clicking here

23 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

johnsotyler

Has anyone been able to see or get a report on Ryan McMahon? He's been crushing and I keep anticipating a write up on him!

Apr 28, 2014 04:10 AM
rating: 3
 
carlbrownson
Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

BP seems to have a Texas-centered prospect approach nowadays.

Apr 28, 2014 04:17 AM
rating: -7
 
Kyle Matte

If you would like to prove yourself as a scout and start submitting first hand reports from the northeast, I'm sure Jason would love to have you.

It's been said many times that the reports come from where the scouts are. Kind of hard for Jason or Chris or Mark to write a ten-pack blurb about a guy that plays a thousand miles from them.

Apr 28, 2014 05:15 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

We write about talent. No preferences.

Apr 28, 2014 06:02 AM
 
delatopia

Such a lazy critique. It's like insisting a coin must be biased for coming up heads eight times and tails twice in a random sampling.

Apr 28, 2014 08:26 AM
rating: 1
 
carlbrownson

You all are hilarious. Of course it's random, delatopia, and of course I'm "lazy" for noticing it. And of course it's also not random, Kyle, and of course it's my fault for not writing the product I subscribed to.

Anyway, I don't believe for a second that there is "no preference" here for things Texan. Up and In podcasts used to feature you, Jason, saying things like "6'5", 70 fastball with movement, Texan," as if "Texan" was a factor like having a 70 fastball. You did it all the time. And now Rangers prospects get featured at a rate that's probably five-to-one over every other team's prospects in baseball on this site. Which is fine - I still read them! But let's not pretend the one thing has nothing to do with the other. Maybe you really believe they don't have anything to do with each other, but if you believe that, you're not being transparent to yourself.

Just a passing observation, not meant to rile up the fanboys. I enjoy reading the write-ups. Carry on.

Apr 28, 2014 15:23 PM
rating: -3
 
DanDaMan

How did this remark get censored? I think we're being a little overly sensitive here.

Apr 28, 2014 19:13 PM
rating: 3
 
Sammy30

What number would you give Pompey as his upside and where do you think he will realistically end up. Can he be a 6 or does he top out as a 5?
Thanks,
Phil

Apr 28, 2014 06:46 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Could be a 6; 4/5 outfielder floor

Apr 28, 2014 09:18 AM
 
pareto

It's very disappointing that Ben Lively continues to be ignored. Can't remember a California League stretch to start a year like he's had. 40:1 K:BB, 29 scoreless. Maybe I'm missing something written elsewhere on BP?

Apr 28, 2014 07:12 AM
rating: 5
 
adamtkay5

Lived in Cotuit and watched Tony Kemp all summer he was there. Not sure what people say about his make up, but no one played the game harder or with more enthusiasm. Saw him make many smaller plays that help a team (hustle doubles, 1st to 3rd, backing up 1st base on bunts, etc.) A very "smart" player as well; I've heard him reference BABIP and his own batted ball data.

I know you can't quantify it, but I feel like coaches and people in the organization will give him every opportunity to succeed because he is so like-able.

Apr 28, 2014 07:22 AM
rating: 0
 
Dave from Pittsburgh

GREGORY POLANCO I WANT TO HAVE YOUR BABIES!

Apr 28, 2014 07:39 AM
rating: 0
 
slemar37

@jstoyler

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22525

Not much has changed since preseason. McMahon is a monster.

Apr 28, 2014 08:20 AM
rating: -2
 
achase

Is Eugenio Suarez's power really that minimal? .551 slugging percentage this year, and some decent pop in prior years. By the numbers, at least, his issue is more about getting on base...or am I missing something?

Apr 28, 2014 08:44 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Tucker Blair
BP staff

Suarez shows some pop, but it is more gap-to-gap type than true HR power. Certainly not a "hollow" bat by any means. He has started off the season hot, but keep in mind that this is a smaller-framed player with more reliance on bat speed than true raw power.

Apr 28, 2014 09:08 AM
 
ClintRamone

Should Pompey abandon the switch hitting or stick with it?

Apr 28, 2014 09:20 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

It's easy for me to say he should abandon it based on the scouting and the stats, but from a developmental standpoint, he still has a lot of room to grow as a switch-hitter, and the ultimate advantage could prove to be lucrative if given more time to figure it out.

Apr 28, 2014 09:25 AM
 
Kyle Matte

Dalton Pompey is at least a 60-grade baseball name, too.

Apr 28, 2014 09:55 AM
rating: 1
 
newsense

Nick Williams - why wouldn't a "fringe average" arm play in LF?

Apr 28, 2014 11:27 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Here's something very about Nick Williams: While I agree that the present arm grades out below-average because of the utility, the overall arm strength has shown plus before (he could hit the 90s from the mound as an amateur). Williams is a very raw player when it comes to skills, and the utility of the arm is one of those underdeveloped skills. Just this spring, I saw him throw a laser from deep CF all the way to second on a line. Easy plus throw. But a few plays later he triple-hopped the second baseman on a similar throw. The arm strength is absolutely there, buried somewhere in his loaded physical profile, But its very hard to forecast how it will eventually play, which is also true of his fielding and running.

Apr 28, 2014 13:02 PM
 
Ace Black

The Tigers Double-A affilate is in Erie. Great reports, keep 'em coming.

Apr 28, 2014 12:37 PM
rating: 0
 
phreaks619

"My Cousin Vinny" released in 1992. Joey Gallo born in 1993...coincidence?

Apr 28, 2014 12:56 PM
rating: 4
 
balticwolf

Jesus Aguilar of the Indians: a forgotten prospect who has been raking at AAA. Very high line drive rate with lots of power (though in a hitter's park). Is he for real?

Apr 28, 2014 14:50 PM
rating: 0
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Premium Article What You Need to Know:... (04/28)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pac... (04/21)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pac... (05/05)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Closer Report: Week Fi... (04/29)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: AL-Only Adds
Fantasy Article Closer Report: Fifth Edition, 2015
Expert FAAB Review: Week Four
Premium Article The Call-Up: A.J. Cole
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Hamilton Returns
Premium Article Baseball Therapy: Death of the Renaissance M...
Premium Article Prospect Debate: Greg Bird: Patient or Passi...

MORE FROM APRIL 28, 2014
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Martin Perez Turns Two, 12 T...
Premium Article Prospectus Hit List: Monday, April 28
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of April 25-27
Baseball Prospectus News: Lindbergh Receives...
The Week in Quotes: April 21-27
Fantasy Article Interleague Report: Week Five
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Transaction Paralysis

MORE BY JASON PARKS
2014-05-06 - Eyewitness Accounts: Eyewitness Accounts for...
2014-05-05 - Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pack: May 5, 2014
2014-04-29 - Premium Article Notes from the Field: April 29, 2014
2014-04-28 - Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pack: April 28, 2014
2014-04-22 - Premium Article The Call-Up: Luis Sardinas
2014-04-22 - Fringe Average Podcast: Episode 28. We Think...
2014-04-08 - Premium Article Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Polling the...
More...

MORE MONDAY MORNING TEN PACK
2014-05-19 - Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pack: May 19, 2014
2014-05-12 - Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pack: May 12, 2014
2014-05-05 - Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pack: May 5, 2014
2014-04-28 - Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pack: April 28, 2014
2014-04-21 - Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pack: April 21, 2014
2014-04-14 - Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pack: April 14, 2014
2014-04-07 - Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pack: Prospects We're Mos...
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2014-07-02 - Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: Futures Team Meet and Gree...
2014-04-29 - Premium Article Overthinking It: Three National Leaguers in ...