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April 17, 2014

Fantasy Freestyle

Recovering Prospects

by Craig Goldstein


This is the time of year when every article begins with the caveat that stats aren’t worth much right now, but, hey, here are some stats. Well, this is like that except it’s fully acknowledging that the stats aren’t worth anything. All they’re here for is to key in on some players who were highly thought of at one point who struggled through a rough 2013 and have come out of the gates quickly. This isn’t to impart meaning to those good starts, but just identify them as prospects to monitor as the season progresses:

Trevor Story - SS - Colorado Rockies

  • 2013 line: .233/.305/.394 (130 games at High-A)
  • 2014 line: .360/.418/.580 (12 games at High-A)

One of the bigger duds of the prospect world in 2013, Story was returned to High-A after logging 183 strikeouts in 130 games. It wasn’t just the whiffs, nor the statistics that ruined 2013 for Story, though; the scouting reports were equally as ugly, noting issues with his swing, balance, timing, and pitch recognition, among other things.

Despite all those struggles, an offseason to clear the slate seems to have done Story a world of good, as he’s started off 2014 like a house on fire. The scouting reports aren’t as kind as they point out the same potential timing/rhythm issues, though they were positive in detailing his bat speed and approach. The timing issues are unlikely to be done haunting Story, but they don’t seem to be a problem at the moment, at least from a production standpoint.

A couple of things to keep in mind before declaring Story “fixed,” though. First, 12 games don’t mean much if they’re not accompanied by mechanical adjustments, and even then, it’s no sure things those adjustments remain in place. Second, Story is repeating the league, and while he’s not old for it at 21, he does have a leg up in some respects. Lastly, it’s the California League, where any positive offensive output needs to be taken with a grain of salt to begin with, much less a 12-game sample from a player repeating the league.

While the paragraph above might seem to invalidate all the positives from Story’s brief season, I think the mechanical adjustments are key here. If he can hold on to those while continuing to iron out his timing, we could be looking at something close to the prospect who ranked no. 1 in the system entering the 2013 season.

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8 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

OuagadougouGM

Wilson's Everett stats from last year are interesting. He started out terribly but in the second month, he absolutely destroyed the Northwest League pitching.

Apr 17, 2014 06:53 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

And of course he left yesterday's game with an ankle injury, so all monitoring will be put on hold :(

Apr 17, 2014 06:59 AM
 
MaineSkin

JaCoby Jones is a bounce back candidate, but from his HS helium that came crashing down at LSU. A little rebound last year at LSU and a nice start to his pro career feels like a renaissance to deep, deep league owners. Jones has tools, extreme position flexibility and is in a system that keeps churning out ML products. I also am tracking Jones due to his age which may allow him to climb the Pirates system quicker than their usual slow rate.
Are there any 1st hand accounts of JaCoby Jones?
Does Gallo or Brinson deserve a little "bounce back" recognition considering their increase in BB% after contributing to obliterating the team MiL K record? Brinson still has the Ks, but Gallo had 3Ks and 6 BBs with 5 HR as of yesterday with reports saying his progression with his eye is pretty damn obvious.

Apr 17, 2014 07:26 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

Jones wasn't a consideration for me given his positive performance in 2013.

Gallo certainly struggled in some respects last year and is showing positive steps this year, but I couldn't exactly call his 2013 season a bad year.

Brinson would certainly qualify thus far, but there are only so many players I can include in an article, and lord knows I talk about Brinson too much as it is. Glad you brought them up though so others can take note.

Apr 17, 2014 07:35 AM
 
evo34

Gallo has 14, not 3 Ks on the season (42 AB through Apr 16). Improved contact rate, but still very poor in that dept.

Apr 17, 2014 09:51 AM
rating: 1
 
MaineSkin

Pretty respected site I referenced to get Gallo K/BB, but stats should alert be checked. My bad.
How would Jones be viewed if he was the PTBNL in the Ile Davis deal? I'm not sure how a 27 yr old 1B like Ike is traded for a RP and who knows PTBNL. I understand management and Ike are opposite attractions, but his BB% and already established game power is not found very often. I'm really surprised a guy like Kingham was not involved as the Mets wanted Edwardo Rodriguez from my Os. I screamed for the Os to make that deal, but of course signing Ubaldo calmed the media.
Serious, Ike motivated is a serious asset. Imagine him at DH and Cruz in LF for the Os? Manny back at 3B while Schoop sticks at 2B? That's 7R per which still may not lead to a positive run differential.

Apr 21, 2014 22:39 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

Jones inclusion in this deal wouldn't change his prospect status.

I feel like you're conveniently ignoring that Ike has been bad for a bit now, when he's on the field. Ike isn't worth Kingham and he's not worth Rodriguez. He sure as hell isn't making the orioles a 7 run per game team.

Apr 21, 2014 22:45 PM
 
username49

I love these articles. Keep'em coming.

I wish D Paulino was having a bounce back year. He would fit nicely on this list. He is doing a little better than last year, so maybe he turns it on even more and shows up the next time you do something like this.

Apr 17, 2014 16:26 PM
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