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April 10, 2014

BP Daily Podcast

Effectively Wild Episode 425: The Costliest Injuries Suffered So Far

by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller



Ben and Sam discuss events from Wednesday's games, the new transfer rule, and the injuries that could cost teams playoff spots.

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Ben Lindbergh is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here
Sam Miller is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Sam's other articles. You can contact Sam by clicking here

7 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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Dutchleaguer

Sam: "I'm not a huge fan of Parker."

Ben: "I'm not necessarily a huge fan of Moore at the moment..."

You guys make these kinds of statements a lot. Forgive maybe a dumb question but what you mean by 'being a fan' of a player? It is just about his numbers, or is also about, say, his hunger to play well, or whether he can meet the expectations placed on him given the other moving parts of the roster, etc.

Or is it more that hard-to-pin-down quality, the way non-sabermetrically minded fans just like this or that player?

Apr 10, 2014 01:04 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

In my case, it just meant that I have some reservations about his performance in the short term, mostly because of his control issues. I wouldn't yet pick him as a buy-low or breakout candidate, basically (even if he were healthy). It's probably something I'm more inclined to say about someone for whom expectations are high (as they are in Moore's case, thanks to his no. 1 overall prospect ranking and low ERA/All-Star appearance/ninth-place AL Cy Young finish last season).

Apr 10, 2014 01:19 AM
 
Dutchleaguer

OK that makes sense, thanks!

Apr 10, 2014 06:40 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Sam Miller
BP staff

Yeah, mostly what Ben said. It's admittedly a vague thing that we toss off more casually and evidencelessly in speech than we would in writing, but usually falls into one or more of three categories:
1. I expect him to get worse before I expect him to get better.
2. I don't see the breakout potential that other people do.
3. He was a top prospect but the excitement is gone.

Probably most commonly due to the player's general statistical profile, or a specific part of his statistical profile, but can be based on anything/everything we know about a guy.

Apr 10, 2014 08:16 AM
 
onearmedecon

Not a Mets fan, but when you introduced the topic of whose loss was most devastating I immediately thought of Matt Harvey. While it's true that his 3-4 wins wouldn't have made them contenders by itself, it really affected the entire Mets off-season strategy. They might have been more willing to pay for (and lose the draft pick) for Stephen Drew, which figures to have been a 1-2 win upgrade over Tejada.

And when you look at the Mets rotation, there's a lot of 0-1 WAR starters (although definitely take the over on Wheeler). So if they had sacrificed the pick for Drew, maybe they would have gone after Santana (which would have taken him off the table from the Braves). And if they are playing above .500 mid-season, maybe they promote Syndergaard earlier than they will this season (e.g., willing to concede Super Two status).

Obviously these second- and third-order affects are highly, highly speculative. And maybe I'm overestimating their financial resources (although even after the Colon, Granderson, and Young signings, their 2014 payroll is ~$10M lower than 2013). But I think it's far to say that Harvey's injury really had an impact on the Mets 2014 that extends well-beyond his 2014 individual projection.

Apr 10, 2014 11:26 AM
rating: 1
 
andrewmorris92

What is the title of the song sampled in the beginning?
Thanks

Apr 11, 2014 08:53 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

It's "I'm Hurtin'" by the excellent Roy Orbison. You can listen to the whole thing here.

Apr 11, 2014 08:56 AM
 
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BP Daily Podcast: Effe... (04/09)
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