CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Draft Ten Pack: USA Ba... (04/08)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article What You Need to Know:... (04/07)
Next Column >>
Premium Article What You Need to Know:... (04/09)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Moonshot: Miguel Cabre... (04/08)

April 8, 2014

What You Need to Know

The New Class of Shift Candidate

by Daniel Rathman

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

The Monday Takeaway
As the Yankees’ beat writers have learned during the first week of the season, manager Joe Girardi is utilizing defensive shifts more liberally than he did last year.

Whether the man at the plate is a slugger or a utility man, if his spray chart shows a clear tendency on ground balls, he’s likely to see Girardi’s infielders move to reflect it. New York Post columnist Joel Sherman was startled by the Yankees’ alignment against Ryan Flaherty—a left-handed hitter with good pop for a middle infielder but a fringy hit tool—who entered Monday’s Bronx opener with a career strikeout rate close to 25 percent.

But Flaherty’s ground-ball distribution is incredibly stark. In 457 plate appearances coming into yesterday’s game, he had hit one ground ball to the area defended solely by the third baseman. The best part: Having their third baseman, Miguel Cabrera, in position didn’t help the Tigers on that one ball, an infield single on June 19, 2013. And the only other Flaherty grounder that a big-league third baseman has fielded was hit in the vicinity of the shortstop on June 23, 2013.

As defensive shifts continue to permeate the majors, it will become increasingly apparent that teams aren’t utilizing them to discourage power hitters from pulling the ball. Their primary goal is to maximize defensive efficiency. And apart from a handful of popups to the left side, having the third baseman anywhere close to the line has proven useless to this point in Flaherty’s major-league career.

Quick Hits from Monday
File this among the weirdest plate appearances in baseball history:

With one out and nobody on in the top of the third inning of the Athletics-Twins game yesterday, Jed Lowrie stepped in and took a fastball for a ball and a curveball for strike. He swung at and fouled off each of the next two pitches, then took a slider for a ball and a changeup for a ball.

Lowrie trotted down the line to first. Josh Donaldson made his way to the batter’s box. The Target Field public address announcer played along, naming Donaldson as the next batter. Finally, home-plate umpire Bill Miller realized that Lowrie was this close to pulling a fast one and brought him back to continue the plate appearance.

The A’s shortstop almost got the last laugh. He smacked the next pitch near the foul line in right field; if it was fair, it was gone. The umpires ruled it foul—but they weren’t sure, so when manager Bob Melvin went out to check, they decided it was worth another look.

That look took a while. Eventually, the umpires at the replay control center determined that the call should stand. Lowrie made his second return trip from first base to the plate, this time with the count full.

He took the next pitch for a ball and, for the third time in the plate appearance, jogged to first base. It was as though the five minutes between ball three and ball four had never happened.

***

Trivia time: One week into the regular season, all but one major leaguer who had received at least 20 plate appearances had made his way on base via hit, walk, or beaning. Who was the lone regular with a .000 on-base percentage when his team’s game began yesterday?

To bump the answer down the page a bit, here’s a short paragraph of hints. This player’s former manager routinely caught flak for batting him second, where his long-standing OBP woes prevented his club’s best hitters from coming to bat with runners to drive home. A product of Ole Miss, he was selected in the second round of the 2007 draft and collected at least one hit in each of his first seven big-league games.

The answer: Zack Cozart, whose schneid reached 0-for-22 before he singled against Trevor Rosenthal with the bases loaded in the top of the ninth. Cozart’s knock drove in Jay Bruce and brought the go-ahead run to the plate with nobody out, but Rosenthal was able to bear down and preserve the lead handed to him by Michael Wacha and the Cardinals offense.

Wacha, who took the baseball world by storm with an excellent rookie year that carried into a duel with 21 innings of one-run work during the Cardinals’ run to the senior-circuit pennant, has picked up where he left off in 2013. The 22-year-old limited the Reds to one earned run over 12 1/3 frames in his first two starts, fanning 10 and walking two.

***

Josh Hamilton and three-walk games just don’t go together. The last time he had one, the opposing starter was Jarrod Washburn—who, you might remember, retired after the 2009 season.

The last time until yesterday, that is.

Hamilton needed help to add a fourth three-free-pass contest to his résumé. Brad Peacock walked him intentionally with runners at second and third and one out in the seventh. But when you only have two of them in 894 career games sans assistance from the opposing manager, you’ll take one however you can get it.

Those three bases on balls doubled Hamilton’s total for the year to six. He didn’t work his sixth walk of the 2013 season until April 30, by which point he had 26 games and 32 strikeouts on his line.

That’s good news for the Angels—and Hamilton’s .500/.600/.833 triple-slash line in the early going is even better. He’s been worth almost a win above replacement just seven games into the year. The road to October is littered with potholes, but the 32-year-old has done about as well as the Angels could have hoped for so far.

The Defensive Play of the Day
Two rainouts on the nine-game docket left the pickings slim. For the second time in a week, a Troy Tulowitzki throw gets the nod:

What to Watch for on Tuesday

  • Since 1914, only two pitchers have stuffed five walks, two hit batsmen, a wild pitch, and four double-play balls into the same outing. Jim Kaat did it for the Twins against the Yankees on May 20, 1962, and Ivan Nova did it for the Yankees against the Astros in his first start of this year. The right-hander will try to rein in his control in this afternoon’s matchup with Wei-Yin Chen. His four rotation-mates have combined to throw 25 1/3 innings without walking a batter since he last toed the rubber (1:05 p.m. ET).

  • Gio Gonzalez faced the Marlins three times last year and came away from each of the meetings with a win. He allowed just two runs in 19 innings on the bump, and of the 19 baserunners he permitted, two were caught stealing and two more were erased on double plays. But here’s a shocker: The Marlins woke up on Monday leading the league in runs scored with 42. Their .353 team on-base percentage was good for fourth in the majors. And a year after finishing last in the circuit in doubles, they sat atop that leaderboard with 19. Something will have to give when Gonzalez welcomes Mike Redmond’s bunch to the nation’s capital for a duel with Henderson Alvarez (7:05 p.m. ET).

  • A 3-for-25 skid with 11 strikeouts is probably not the start B.J. Upton had envisioned to what both he and the Braves are hoping will be a major rebound campaign. But here’s a little bit of good news: The Mets are coming to town and sending Bartolo Colon to the hill in the opener. Upton is 7-for-23 lifetime against the New York newcomer, with three extra-base hits and three walks. That adds up to a .973 OPS, Upton’s fourth-best among active hurlers that he’s faced at least 25 times. Upton will try to heat up in support of Aaron Harang, who took a no-hitter into the seventh inning of his win against the Brewers last week. The matchup of Colon and Harang, who team up to tip the scales at nearly 550 pounds, might be the heftiest we’ll see all year (7:10 p.m. ET).

  • Rain washed away Yordano Ventura’s first scheduled start of the season on Thursday, much to the chagrin of those of us who wanted to watch him battle Miguel Cabrera instead of spending our afternoon working or studying for an urban economics midterm. Royals manager Ned Yost elected to skip Ventura’s turn in the rotation so that Jeremy Guthrie could start the club’s home opener, a move that bumped Ventura to today’s game, in which he’ll lock horns with another young right-hander, Chris Archer. At stake: a restraining order from Jason Parks (8:10 p.m. ET).

Daniel Rathman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Daniel's other articles. You can contact Daniel by clicking here

Related Content:  New York Yankees,  Shifts,  Ryan Flaherty

7 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

rebob9

Urban economics. Jumbo shrimp.

Apr 08, 2014 09:33 AM
rating: 0
 
Bryan Cole

I didn't know Ventura was studying urban economics. Good for him!

...oh wait.

Apr 08, 2014 10:54 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Daniel Rathman
BP staff

Heh, unfortunate wording there. Fixed, thanks.

Apr 08, 2014 11:52 AM
 
medmel

Just 2 questions. Does the shiftiness of a manager change the apparent range factor of an infielder? How would you adjust for this?

Apr 08, 2014 10:20 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Daniel Rathman
BP staff

It's funny that you mention that, because the Yankees' color guy, David Cone, mentioned that on the broadcast yesterday. I'd imagine the adjustment will become easier to make if/when FIELDf/x data become available.

Apr 08, 2014 12:49 PM
 
Travis Leleu

Daniel,

As a member of a forward thinking organization, shouldn't you not mention BJ Upton's SSS data against one particular starting pitcher? By bringing it up, how you did, it sounds like you believe it's significant.

I can almost understand the urge of a live TV announcer saying that. They have to think of things quickly, and ad hoc. But you didn't need to say that, because you could edit your article.

Or are you suggesting some sort of signal in 25 PA?

Apr 08, 2014 22:05 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Daniel Rathman
BP staff

Travis,

I go back and forth on the significance of head-to-head plate appearance data, as I think there are matchups in which it is significant. However, I agree that it generally is overused by announcers who need to come up with facts on the fly, and I try to avoid leaning on it in WYNTK unless there is a long-standing, eye-popping trend. This probably did not meet that standard, and it's fair for you to call me on it. Thanks for the feedback.

Apr 09, 2014 11:32 AM
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Premium Article Draft Ten Pack: USA Ba... (04/08)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article What You Need to Know:... (04/07)
Next Column >>
Premium Article What You Need to Know:... (04/09)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Moonshot: Miguel Cabre... (04/08)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Raising Aces: Walker on the Wild Side
Premium Article Painting the Black: Pedro Alvarez's Trip Fro...
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Thursday, Apri...
Premium Article What You Need to Know: April 17, 2015
Going Yard: How Bryant Can Crush
The Call-Up: Kris Bryant
Premium Article Rubbing Mud: So You Want to Trade Your Draft...

MORE FROM APRIL 8, 2014
Premium Article Notes from the Field: Backfield/Minor-League...
Premium Article Moonshot: Miguel Cabrera and the Bearable He...
Premium Article Draft Ten Pack: USA Baseball NHSI Edition
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of April 7, 2014
Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: AL West U25 Lists
Fantasy Article Closer Report: Attrition
Daily League Strategy: Underpriced Studs

MORE BY DANIEL RATHMAN
2014-04-11 - Premium Article What You Need to Know: A Play at the Plate
2014-04-10 - Premium Article What You Need to Know: Ervin Arrives
2014-04-09 - Premium Article What You Need to Know: You Must Learn Contro...
2014-04-08 - Premium Article What You Need to Know: The New Class of Shif...
2014-04-07 - Premium Article What You Need to Know: Weekend Wrap-Up
2014-04-04 - Premium Article What You Need to Know: The Importance of Pag...
2014-04-03 - Premium Article What You Need to Know: Derek Norris Finds th...
More...

MORE WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
2014-04-11 - Premium Article What You Need to Know: A Play at the Plate
2014-04-10 - Premium Article What You Need to Know: Ervin Arrives
2014-04-09 - Premium Article What You Need to Know: You Must Learn Contro...
2014-04-08 - Premium Article What You Need to Know: The New Class of Shif...
2014-04-07 - Premium Article What You Need to Know: Weekend Wrap-Up
2014-04-04 - Premium Article What You Need to Know: The Importance of Pag...
2014-04-03 - Premium Article What You Need to Know: Derek Norris Finds th...
More...