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April 4, 2014

BP Unfiltered

32 Predictions Contest Response Summary

by Sky Kalkman


This year’s 32 Predictions contest had almost the exactly the same number of entries as last year’s, with 686. Forty-nine entries left at least one question blank, and 11 of you decided not to name your entry. (At least we can never make fun of you for it.)

The average favorite was picked 66 percent of the time, with exactly half of the questions no more than a 60/40 favorite. The most divisive question was 342-339 in favor of Joey Votto’s walk rate over Votto’s ISO.

Like last year, I calculated a groupthink score for each entry by averaging the overall popularities of the entry's choices. A higher number means that an entry looks more like the consensus entry, while a lower number means that the entry went rogue. The most groupthink score belongs to mtgannon at 65 percent, which means that the favorite was chosen nearly every time. The lowest groupthink score belongs to GoMattMorris, who must have been trying to pick underdogs. The average groupthink score was 58 percent.

Here is the complete table of results, sorted from most to least lopsided:

Seventy-three percent of you picked Sam Miller over me. Let’s call that the Effectively Wild bias. Here are the picks we differed on (of which there were only nine.) Sam went with the group a bit more, .60 to .56.

You can find all entries here, sorted by time of entry and including the groupthink score.

Sky Kalkman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Sky's other articles. You can contact Sky by clicking here

Related Content:  Predictions,  32 Predictions

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