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April 4, 2014

TTO Scoresheet Podcast

Episode 12: Brandon "Sweet Talkin'" Guyer

by Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss


As you may have noticed, the regular season has started, so we are going to shift the format of our articles a little bit. Our plan is for these columns to have two parts each week. We’ll start with thoughts on something related to general Scoresheet strategy and end with picks for players we recommend sitting and starting for the next week of Scoresheet games. However, we’re still trying to be flexible and figure out what works, so if next week’s article looks completely different, then the prior few sentences never existed and you can’t prove otherwise.

Benedict Arnold Was a Trader
In the early going, the forefront of your thought process on roster moves should center around trusting the preseason projections and your general feeling on guys coming into the season. Performance so far isn’t enough to justify altering expectations in a way that would change how you treat a player. You are probably already tired of warnings not to read too much into early season small sample sizes, but you shouldn’t ignore them. As shown by the work of Derek Carty and Russell Carleton on these virtual pages, even the statistics that stabilize the most quickly will still need time before we know if the variation from expectations is noise or not.

To drive the point home, let’s quote from Russell’s latest piece on the subject, as he said it better than we could:

When I say that strikeout rate for pitchers stabilizes at 70 batters faced, what I mean is that we can be reasonably sure that his strikeout rate over those 70 batters is a good reflection of his talent level over those 70 (now past) plate appearances. This is different from saying that once a pitcher has gotten to 70 batters, we can assume that he will perform this way for the rest of the season. That's an assumption. It's not a bad one, but it is an assumption. Instead, what it means is that if his underlying skill set has changed in some meaningful way, we'll know in 70 plate appearances.

So, if you’re not going to adjust your projections for a player just yet, why would you make any changes to your roster? Glad you asked.

The first and most compelling reason is an injury. If you own Jose Reyes, or one of the many pitchers that have had early season issues, you can easily justify making trades to shore up your depth or improve the overall quality of your team in certain areas. A week of Player AAA in the beginning of the season is just as harmful as in the end. You’ll probably have to give up some future value to do this the right way—try to find a team playing for the future that has a piece you could use, and toss them a pick or a prospect. If you have to deal from players you’ll need this year, try to trade the ones that will be easiest to replace in supplemental drafts, like relievers or outfielders.

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Related Content:  Podcast,  Scoresheet,  Fantasy

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<< Previous Article
Pitcher Profile: New A... (04/03)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article TTO Scoresheet Podcast... (03/28)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article TTO Scoresheet Podcast... (04/11)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Starting Pitch... (04/04)

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