CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Premium and Super Premium Subscribers Get a 20% Discount at MLB.tv!

<< Previous Article
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Now... (04/02)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Now... (04/02)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Hom... (04/07)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Deep Impact: Introduct... (04/02)

April 2, 2014

Fantasy Freestyle

Strategic Agility on Auction Day

by Jeff Quinton


By the time this article is up, there will be very few drafts and auctions remaining for the 2014 season. With the successes and failures of this draft and auction season still fresh in our minds, right now is the best time to analyze what went right and what went wrong. It is definitely better than doing so 11 months from now, when we are more likely to be misled by results (positive and negative) as opposed to focusing on process. So let’s dig in.

I have typed a lot of words about draft and auction preparation and strategy this offseason. I am far from being alone on the internet as someone who has done so. Preparation and strategy are great, but they can be made irrelevant if the strategy is not executed on draft or auction day. “Executing strategy” is a nice thing to talk about, but it is something that is not easily done. More importantly, executing your strategy is not always the best way to maximize your auction yield. Wait what? I have been preaching strategy and process all off season and now I say it is not to follow them? What kind on monster am I? I am not saying that strategy is unimportant, but I am saying that depending on the situation, a tweak or change to your strategy mid-auction or mid-draft can maximize your yield.

Your strategy will be based on your analysis and assumptions. Your leaguemates’ strategies will be based on their analysis and assumptions. When you throw all of that into a room or virtual room on auction day, some of those assumptions will be wrong (note that this does not mean that these are bad assumptions; this could be good process and bad results). Regardless of good, bad, right, or wrong, when your assumptions do not hold, it is important to adjust. This is not something that I thought of while pondering auctions late one night; rather, this happened to me in an auction last Saturday. I had a strategy going in, I adjusted early to my team’s advantage, and I failed to adjust toward the end of the auction to my team’s disadvantage. If you partake in auctions, you can certainly learn from my experience.

League background: 11 team, NL-only, 5x5, 15-keeper-max league with high inflation.

Early Auction (The Good): In being able to adjust my strategy, I was able to grab value that my initial strategy would not have captured.

The top players in this auction were the top bats: Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Braun, Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki, and Justin Upton. I think most would have Upton on the bottom of that tier or in a separate tier, but he was definitely ahead of the next tier of available players, headlined by Mark Trumbo, Matt Kemp, and Aramis Ramirez. Given the high inflation, my calculation had the top tier of hitters going at $45, $43, $40, $38, $38, and $36, as listed above. So what happened? Let us look at the first two players thrown out:

Order

Player

Winning Bid

1

Andrew McCutchen

$41

2

Carlos Gonzalez

$40

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Related Content:  Fantasy,  Drafts,  Auctions

14 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Now... (04/02)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Now... (04/02)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Hom... (04/07)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Deep Impact: Introduct... (04/02)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Fantasy Article Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 19
Barbecue State of Mind
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Give the Red Sox Your ...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Astros, Marlins, Swap ...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: The Great Big David Pr...
Premium Article The Call-Up: Mike Foltynewicz
Trade Deadline

MORE FROM APRIL 2, 2014
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Archer de Triomphe
Premium Article What You Need to Know: Revere Does Not Go De...
Testing TrackMan
Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, April 2
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Bonds vs. Pedro, and More Fu...
Fantasy Article Deep Impact: Introduction
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Now is the Season of My D...

MORE BY JEFF QUINTON
2014-04-14 - Fantasy Article Interleague Report: Week Three
2014-04-09 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Buying Low, Letting Go, a...
2014-04-07 - Fantasy Article Interleague Report: Week Two
2014-04-02 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Strategic Agility on Auct...
2014-03-31 - Premium Article The Miguel Cabrera Extension
2014-03-31 - Fantasy Article Interleague Report: Week One
2014-03-27 - Fantasy Article My Model Portfolio: Hopefully, No Scrubs
More...

MORE FANTASY FREESTYLE
2014-04-09 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Small-Sample Numbers That...
2014-04-09 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Buying Low, Letting Go, a...
2014-04-07 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Home Cooking
2014-04-02 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Strategic Agility on Auct...
2014-04-02 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Now is the Season of My D...
2014-03-27 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Three Murky Closer Situat...
2014-03-26 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: My Favorite Endgame Targe...
More...