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March 31, 2014

32 Predictions Contest

2014 Edition

by Sky Kalkman

This is the sixth year I’ve run this contest, and the second at Baseball Prospectus. (You can find the questions and results from the 2013 contest here.) I stole the idea from my college differential equations professor, Doug Drinen of Pro-Football-Reference, and heck, I might as well steal his directions, too (translated into baseball-speak):

Below you will find 32 pairs of numbers. In each case, you tell me which number will be bigger. One point for each correct answer. Most points wins.

Ties—and there is a solid chance of ties occurring—go to the side that had fewer votes. For example, here is a pair of numbers:

Wins by the Yankees
Wins by the Red Sox

Let’s say 41 people take the Yankees and 54 take the Red Sox. If the Yankees and Red Sox end up with the same number of wins, then each Yankee-backer will get a point and each Red Sox-backer will not.

To enter, fill out the embedded Google form below. The grand prize includes not only Fame and Glory, but a one-year premium subscription to Baseball Prospectus. Correlation is not causation, but Mike Fast is a previous winner, and look where he is now.

Entries are due by Tuesday, April 1 at midnight Pacific. In case of an overall tie, the winner is the person who entered first.

Sky Kalkman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Sky's other articles. You can contact Sky by clicking here

12 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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just plain fun

Mar 31, 2014 04:30 AM
rating: 8

This was a blast!

Mar 31, 2014 09:00 AM
rating: 1

Worth the price of the subscription!

Mar 31, 2014 09:44 AM
rating: 0

Team Sam!

Mar 31, 2014 19:51 PM
rating: -1
Sky Kalkman

That's right, I down-voted your comment.

Apr 01, 2014 06:27 AM
rating: 6

hits/beltran/ellsbury; ryan howard

cheers - hh

Apr 01, 2014 15:20 PM
rating: 0

Which number will be bigger, Aoki or Davis? Does this mean bigger, or further from 0? If Davis say was -34 and Aoki was -59, I assume you mean Aoki and -59 but...

Apr 01, 2014 21:07 PM
rating: 0
Sky Kalkman

-34 is bigger than -59.

Apr 02, 2014 05:18 AM
rating: 1

I know. Oh well... Sometimes it's better not to think about these things, be literal, follow instructions, and not question thins.

Apr 02, 2014 11:11 AM
rating: 0
Sky Kalkman

Thanks to everyone who entered! Almost 700 entries, the same as last year. I'll get working on a summary post.

Apr 02, 2014 05:19 AM
rating: 0

Seems like there was one gimme: 650 PA repeaters over 200 IP repeaters. Rest seem like toss-ups more or less.

Apr 02, 2014 09:34 AM
rating: 0
Sky Kalkman

I summarized the entries here, with a link to a master list of everyone's choices: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23223

Apr 04, 2014 07:31 AM
rating: 0
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