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March 27, 2014

My Model Portfolio

Hopefully, No Scrubs

by Jeff Quinton

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Position Players:

I ended up with a very balanced offense. Besides Eric Hosmer ($22), Jason Kipnis ($25), and Brad Miller ($3), every other position player I chose was between $8 and $17. I did not set out to do so, but I really like this tier’s combination of value, upside, and risk. I did not have to pay for top five positional production, but almost all of these players have a chance of being top five positional plays (top ten for outfielders). In a format like this, where your roster construction is independent of the roster construction of other teams, I was always going to own David Ortiz. Having your utility spot clogged for good end game pickups can be an issue in auctions or drafts, but in this format that was not a concern.

I ended up with two all-speed, no-power guys in Billy Hamilton and Ben Revere, but I am not that concerned given the plus power plays I have on my roster elsewhere. Looking at 5x5 categories, I probably will not be winning the batting average category, but I do not think this team puts up a zero in batting average either. Given all the speed and power, top of the order bats and middle of the order bats I would not be surprised to put up double digits in each of the other four categories.

Pitchers:

Once I saw how cheaply some of the younger arms were priced, I knew I was going to go cheap on pitching on the whole. Using the “bottom of the top tier” approach I used with Hosmer, Kipnis, and Segura, I grabbed Chris Sale from the top tier and Jordan Zimmerman from the next tier. These were both tough choices as I could have gone with Fernandez or Wainwright instead of Sale and Cobb, Sanchez, or Cashner instead of Zimmerman. I chose Sale as a guy I think has a good shot at a career year and Zimmerman as the steadiest of the $14 arms (if I had an extra $3, I would have loved to grab Greinke at $17). After that it is a lot of young arms and upside. Usually, I am the last person to pay the helium price for these type of players, but Mike’s values have correctly taken out that helium. As a result I took three guys in Tehran, Gray, and Buchholz who I believe have the stuff to be top-20 starters. I have already professed my love for Ivan Nova in the wins dark horse piece and Alex Wood looks like he can earn a ton of profit on a $1 salary. As for relievers, I knew I was never going to pony up for the top players given reliever volatility, so I ended spending $14 combined on two closers for two pretty good teams.

Jeff Quinton is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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<< Previous Article
Fantasy Article My Model Portfolio: Th... (03/27)
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Fantasy Article My Model Portfolio: Th... (03/27)
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Fantasy Article My Model Portfolio: St... (03/28)
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Fantasy Article Tout Wars Recap (03/27)

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