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There are a lot of different ways that fantasy players determine who is or isn’t an “expert,” but looking at who does or doesn’t win an expert league is our collective shorthand. On this count in Tout Wars, I have fallen short. I have now had four tries at winning a title (in the NL-only part of the league), and all four times I have fallen short.

Oh sure, I’ve had a couple of very good seasons. I finished tied for third in my rookie year in 2010 and came in second last year. But as any fantasy player—expert or not—will tell you, winning is the only goal that matters. I’m not exactly disappointed in my lack of a title thus far (how disappointed can you get when you’re losing to Nate Ravitz, Steve Gardner, and Tristan Cockcroft?), but like everyone else who plays competitive fantasy sports, I want to win.

Despite this lack of success, I generally spend less time looking back and more time looking forward. Last year’s auction conditions aren’t going to duplicate this year’s, and not merely because of mild owner turnover. Rookies, players coming over from the AL via trade or free agency, and injuries rapidly change the landscape from one year to the next. You can’t simply look at last year and build on that this year. However, you can’t look too much at this year either and simply expect to win either.

Allow me to explain.

Tout Wars is the last expert league to auction, after CBS and LABR. It’s tempting to simply look at the LABR prices, use them to attempt to identify trends, and call it a day. There are several problems with this approach, but the biggest problem with it is that unless you were at the auction, it’s hard to know when a price was indicative of a trend and when it was just a weird hiccup during the auction

However, between all of the earlier expert auctions and drafts I had already participated in along with my own take on valuations, I did have a general idea of how I thought my auction would go:

It was very unlikely I would own a player costing $30 or more
The ground shifted from underneath everyone’s feet last year, as only two of the 10 most expensive hitters (Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Gonzalez) were also top 10 earners. Paul Goldschmidt and McCutchen are getting drafted like they are mortal locks to repeat 2013, but I see a landscape in NL-only where there is far less certainty among the best hitters than there has been in quite some time. I hadn’t spent over $26 on a player in any mono format mock or live auction this spring, and I suspected this trend would continue.

I would not buy an ace starting pitcher
Pitching has gradually been improving in real life the last few years, and the reaction to this has been to spend more on the top-shelf arms. While this is an understandable reaction, the reality is that when the average pitcher gets better, the arms at the top are worth less. In the past, the expert owners have been under-spending for the top arms; now it seemed like the top shelf arms would cost too much. The most likely scenario for my team was going to be a balanced pitching staff with no arm costing more than $15 and no one dollar bargain bin plays making up the back end of my staff as I have rostered in the past.

Go where the market takes me with saves
Many expert owners are doctrinaire about buying or not buying saves, but I tend to buy a closer only when the price is right. I have alternated in Tout Wars between buying two closers and none my first four years in the league. For the non-Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen types, $15 is typically my stopping point. In some years, this means I can get the guys I’m targeting, but in others nearly every owner in the room insists on getting a closer, even it means paying more than what that closer is worth. I expected nearly every owner to buy a closer in Tout Wars—including Peter Kreutzer, who seldom if ever buys saves but told me before the auction that he planned to buy a closer this year. There was a good chance I wouldn’t get a closer if everyone was all in on the category, but I could live with that.

Go after "my guys"
I’m about valuation above all else, but I have found myself owning the same core of players in many of my leagues time and time again. Whether this is because I’m valuing them higher than others because of my valuation principles or because of some sort of non-analytical bias is difficult to say, but I figured there was a good chance that based on my valuations and what had been happening in my auctions/drafts thus far, I would own some of the following players:

Buy a balanced team
All of the above goals were tied into my larger, most significant goal: to attempt and purchase a balanced team. One of the most significant challenges I have had in Tout Wars every year is that while I always feel that I have come out of my auctions with a lot of value, I’m always in the position where I have deficiencies in multiple categories and have to try to trade my way into contention. This is far easier to do in a home league than in an expert redraft league, so this year I wanted to try to buy into as many categories as possible. Tossing aside one category was acceptable if it came to that; burning two or more was not.

So how did it actually play out?

I would not own a player at $30 or more
Check. David Wright at $29 was my most expensive purchase of the day, with Justin Upton ($28) right behind him.

I purchased Hamilton ($22), Wright, and Upton very early so right away I had $181 left to spend on 20 players. As I expected, Goldschmidt, McCutchen, and Votto all went for par prices ($38 apiece; Votto netted this because Tout Wars moved from BA to OBP this year). The only players I felt a slight pang of regret on at the time were Hanley Ramirez ($30) and Troy Tulowitzki ($29). Both cost $2 under my bid limit and both went to Kreutzer. If I had missed out on Wright and Upton, I probably would have pushed Ramirez and Tulo up another dollar, but since I already had a decent core I decided to wait.

I felt better about this at the end of the auction when every single middle infielder I had listed at more than $1 was purchased. Had I grabbed Hanley or Tulo, I would have been saddled with two complete scrubs and a star middle infielder with injury concerns. Getting 400-450 plate appearance from one of those studs plus two back-ups could have been the kiss of death. In retrospect, I’m glad I avoided buying Hanley or Tulo.

I would not buy an ace starting pitcher
Check. Of the nine pitchers I had valued at $19 or higher, only Matt Cain ($20) and Gio Gonzalez ($18) went one dollar under my bid limit. With so many aces going over my bid limit, I assumed that I would be able to fill out my pitching staff with bargains across the board and this is exactly how things played out. Every pitcher I purchased was a two-dollar or greater bargain based on my bid limits and I was the first one in the room to fill out my pitching staff.

Go where the market takes me with saves
One of the most shocking developments in the NL LABR auction was that four owners dumped saves while a fifth—Doug Dennis—only bought Huston Street because the closer market collapsed. Out of 15 NL closers, 10 cost $12 or less.

As noted above, I didn’t expect closers to go quite as cheaply in Tout Wars, because the closer market is usually more aggressive than it is in LABR. And sure enough, I was right. Kreutzer did buy a closer, and every owner except for Lenny Melnick did buy at least one closer, so on the whole closers were more expensive.

Table 1: NL-Only Expert League Closer Prices

Pitcher

Bid

CBS

LABR

Tout

AVG

Craig Kimbrel

24

26

22

25

24

Kenley Jansen

22

24

20

22

22

Trevor Rosenthal

20

21

16

20

19

Sergio Romo

14

17

17

15

16

Addison Reed

15

16

12

15

14

Jason Grilli

15

16

12

15

14

Jonathan Papelbon

14

16

12

14

14

Rafael Soriano

13

17

12

13

14

Steve Cishek

12

16

10

15

14

Huston Street

13

15

10

12

12

Jim Henderson

16

15

10

11

12

Bobby Parnell

13

15

7

12

11

Jose Veras

10

10

7

8

8

Latroy Hawkins

5

7

2

4

4

Totals

206

231

169

201

198

Table 1 lists all of the NL closers with the exception of Aroldis Chapman, whose price dropped considerably between LABR and Tout Wars after he was hit in the head by a line drive; including him here doesn’t help illustrate the price difference among all of the expert leagues.

It turned out that the Tout Wars closer market was more aggressive than LABR but less aggressive than CBS. In CBS, I opted out of buying a closer since every closer except for Henderson went for a par price or higher. In Tout Wars, I couldn’t pass on the cheap tandem of Henderson ($11), Veras ($8), and closer-in-waiting Rex Brothers ($6). For me, this was a best-of-both-worlds scenario. I got my guys cheaply while others paid mostly par or above par for their closers. Henderson in particular seemed to freeze the room; everyone was waiting for the next group of closers expecting bigger bargains that didn’t come.

Go after “my guys"
So what happened with the players I was “targeting”?

  • Billy Hamilton ✓
  • Chase Utley
  • Jim Henderson ✓
  • Will Venable
  • Anthony Rendon ✓
  • Andrew Cashner ✓
  • Tyson Ross ✓
  • A.J. Burnett ✓
  • Aaron Hill
  • Carlos Quentin

I bought all of my pitching “targets” and missed out on my hitting “targets” more often than not.

Buy a balanced team
So how did this all play out? Did I get the balance I wanted to or did I get saddled with a lopsided team?

Table 2: The Baseball Prospectus, NL-Only Tout Wars Team

Pos

Player

Salary

C

Wilson Ramos

15

C

Travis D’Arnaud

9

1B

Gaby Sanchez

7

2B

Anthony Rendon

17

SS

Zack Cozart

8

3B

David Wright

29

CO

Casey McGehee

3

MI

Chris Owings

7

OF

Justin Upton

28

OF

Billy Hamilton

22

OF

Matt Kemp

21

OF

Cameron Maybin

7

UT

Peter Bourjos

6

SW

Michael Morse

6

P

Andrew Cashner

15

P

Jim Henderson

11

P

Tyson Ross

11

P

A.J. Burnett

10

P

Jose Veras

8

P

Josh Johnson

7

P

Rex Brothers

6

P

Jon Niese

4

P

Archie Bradley

3

R

Maikel Franco

R

Santiago Casilla

R

John Mayberry

R

A.J. Ramos

On the whole this is a very balanced team. I have a projected starter at every offensive position once Maybin comes off of the DL. If Hamilton pans out, I have purchased way too much speed, but Bourjos, Maybin, and Owings aren’t potential zeroes in home runs either. I should get a lot of runs/RBI with this team assuming the rookies don’t wash out entirely.

The pitching staff has the balance that I wanted. The Johnson injury news was announced three hours or so after the auction, but even if Johnson misses a significant amount of time, I like my front four, and I believe Bradley will be up sooner rather than later. I was particularly pleased that I was able to add so much strikeout potential with every pick except Niese.

It is difficult to gauge your team immediately after an auction that is as fast paced as Tout Wars, but sitting back home two days later going over my results, I’m pleased that I executed most of my goals. I have more balance than I have ever had in Tout Wars and while I purchased a significant number of rookies, I have enough solid players on my team that I can even withstand one or two washouts. Even if I only hit the midpoint of my team’s ceiling, I’m in a position to contend, which is just about all anyone can ask for in an expert league of this caliber.

Thank you for reading

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bubba3m
3/25
Ah, Josh Johnson rather than Jim Johnson as you have listed- I panicked when I first read that, thinking I'd missed some important news!
MikeGianella
3/25
I feel bad about the typo, but I think I used the term NL-only at least half a dozen times.
mblthd
3/25
Speaking of typos, whoever managed the Tout spreadsheet gave you Shawn Kemp for $21. Maybe he can cover Tracy McGrady if the situation arises.

danteswitness
3/25
Seems like a lot to spend on a guy with conditioning problems who is really on the wrong side of the aging curve.
Robotey
3/25
Given these are non-keeper leagues, do you think that depresses the value of prospects like Archie Bradley or Syndergaard? Any owner who thinks either could be the next Fernandez or Harvey--or even this year's Wheeler, could easily bid close to $10, given that 2/3 or more of Rookie of the Year Season is worth it, especially if you're buying his rights for next year as well. I'm surprised Bradley went for under $5. Do you think this explains why? If so, does that inflate --ever slightly -- the prices of the veterans?
LynchMob
3/25
There are many, many kinds of "fantasy leagues" ... one fundamental difference between the "expert leagues" mentioned here and typical "home leagues" is that the expert leagues are "redraft" and home leagues tend to be "keeper".

So, the expert/redraft prices reflect the market value for only this season's stats ... whereas home/keeper prices reflect NPV = Net Present Value (a function of market value for this season, plus potential future seasons).

I think you're question is asking about one relative to the other ... rookies will likely have more value in a home/keeper league, and that means less money left for "veterans" ... leading to a strategic opportunity for players in a keeper league: decide how much to go all-in for this year versus how much to sacrifice this season for future seasons.

I hope I don't sound like Captain Obvious ...
Robotey
3/25
Cap'n,

Yeah, I get that. I've been in a pair of keeper NL Only for a decade. So, my question is: if you're comparing Bradley's value in a 10-team NL only keeper to these 'expert' leagues -- which are, of course, 're-draft'--is there a dollar value you could assign to the discrepancy.

For instance, Bradley. In my league, last year I grabbed Wheeler at $3. For that price I got a half season of decent value, and I get the right to keep him at $8 this year.

I was outbid on Fernandez who went for $7, and at the time of the draft was already about to be promoted. If my league were 'expert' what could we expect for these prices?

I ask because I'm curious what is a reasonable amount to bid on Bradley.

Thoughts?
MikeGianella
3/25
It really all depends on not only what these guys will be worth but whether or not there is dumping and how much talent a contending owner can get from a rebuilding squad. Guys like Bradley go for $10-12 in my leagues not only for their talent but because an owner doesn't want to let Bradley slip for $3 and have him turn into two studs in a dump deal. So some risk is built into the price for this year with the hopes that the player is good and can still be a rebuilding chip for another team.
MikeGianella
3/25
Of course it does. The risk is that you get nothing, but the other problem is that we have four reserve (non-DL slots). If Bradley and Maikel Franco do nothing for me, I have to either hang on to them all year or simply cut bait.

My final bid update - which will occur after the season starts for owners auctioning during the first weekend of the season - will remove rookies for old school leagues that have farm systems. You'll see the difference for veterans in that update (yes, it does inflate them).
sam19041
3/25
Super helpful writeup, Mike. Appreciate the insights as always. I had a similar strategy in our home league recently and ended up with some similar players. What's your take on Casey McGehee and Gaby Sanchez for this year (standard 5x5)? Do they keep their jobs and produce counting stats?
MikeGianella
3/25
It's hard to say with McGehee since the Marlins won't contend. Derek Dietrich is a possible risk to steal time, but he isn't a top prospect. Neither is Zack Cox. I'd bet that McGehee probably keeps the job until the trade deadline until he is traded to a contender (if he thrives) or is cut (if he doesn't). Sanchez depends on if the Pirates can swing a trade where they don't take on too much salary. If he beats the odds and hits righties the way he did in 2011 maybe he'll keep the job, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Robotey
3/25
Mike - whom do you prefer? Tyson Ross or Shelby Miller?

Rob
MikeGianella
3/25
Miller, but as a Ross fan I'm closer on them than most.

In keeper, Miller gets even more of an edge and it is more clear cut.
Robotey
3/25
thanks - I noticed you grabbed Ross. It's between Miller at $9 and Ross at $7. The numbers on Miller haven't been amazing since the All Star Break, and a sophomore hiccup isn't difficult to imagine, even if he is the sexier pick. But with Ross, it's not as if the Padres have sported repeat season of effective SP's, have they? Makes me a little skeptical of Ross. What do you like about him?
MikeGianella
3/26
He was the hardest National League pitcher to hit post All Star (tied with Francisco Liriano). Darren Balsley's work with Ross on the slider has made him an extremely tough guy to hit. There are limits to this (which is why I don't have Ross higher), but between his new approach and home venue, he's worth a low double-digit bid for me.
Slyke18
3/26
Great recap, Mike.

I was watching the auction on line, and was surprised by the aggressive prices early on.

When you were watching all those hitters going for prices right near you max mids, what was your strategy? Were you against going over your max bid, just to assure you bought enough stats?
MikeGianella
3/26
The big surprise to me wasn't the high prices early on, but how much the middle infielders went for a little later. As I mentioned above, getting Wright, Upton, and Hamilton relatively early didn't put pressure on me to spend, but with so many middle infielders cracking $18 or more I knew I'd have to push someone like Rendon higher if I wanted to spend. He was the only player on my entire roster where I spent more than my bid price. Cozart and Sanchez were right at my bid prices. But I made the decision a few players before Rendon came up that I was going to get him unless he went to $20.

Todd Zola of Mastersball made things a little more difficult as well. Zola had more money than I did and a lot of offensive slots to fill. I didn't want to get stuck holding someone because I was trying to suck money from him but didn't want to just let him get players at below par and keep me from getting anyone. So I pushed Will Venable and Angel Pagan to my par prices in order to get Zola out of my way. It also helped in that it allowed me to get relative bargains on Bourjos and Morse and even get a $1 bargain (by my numbers) on Maybin with my last $7 bid.