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March 18, 2014

Fantasy Freestyle

The PFM, My Bid Limits, and You

by Mike Gianella


Throughout the positional tier series and continuing throughout my bid limit articles, some of our readers have been asking questions and raising objections along the following lines:

I don’t understand why your bid limit on Paul Goldschmidt is $36 in NL-only when the PFM only has him at $29.20. I know everyone is really excited about Goldschmidt this year, but I’m relying on the PFM for my auction and I don’t understand why there is a $7 difference between your suggested bid and the PFM’s. What gives?

For more than a few readers, I suspect there is a misunderstanding of what PECOTA/the PFM is designed to do versus what my bid limits are designed to do.

(Before you dive into this piece, I strongly urge you to read Rob McQuown’s 2014 introduction to PECOTA if you have general questions about PECOTA and the PFM. My article is not intended to reinvent the wheel when it comes to explaining PECOTA and the PFM, but rather to showcase the difference between PECOTA and my bid limits.)

As noted in Baseball Prospectus’s glossary, PECOTA has three elements incorporated into its projection model:

1) Major-league equivalencies, to allow us to use minor-league stats to project how a player will perform in the majors;
2) Baseline forecasts, which use weighted averages and regression to the mean to produce an estimate of a player's true talent level;
3) A career-path adjustment, which incorporates information about how comparable players' stats changed over time.

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Related Content:  Fantasy,  Auctions,  Bid Limits

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<< Previous Article
Premium Article Notes from the Field: ... (03/17)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Rai... (03/13)
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Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Pic... (03/19)
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Premium Article Five to Watch: Nationa... (03/18)

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