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March 14, 2014

Fantasy Auction Values

Third Edition

by Mike Gianella


In eight days, I’ll be participating in my fifth Tout Wars expert league auction (on the National League side of the fence). However, this will be the first year we will be using on-base percentage—instead of batting average—as a category.

The attached spreadsheet offers my adjusted bid values for on base percentage leagues. More than the changes, what will probably jump out to readers is how few players’ values changed in both leagues. Forty-five NL hitters saw a change in value, while 38 AL hitters were moved up or down. Given that 125 AL hitters and 118 NL hitters saw a value change of $1 or more in 2013, shouldn’t there be more fluctuation in my bid limits for OBP?

While I could have taken this direction and made more radical bid changes, I decided not to do so. The simplest reason for this is that my bid limits aren’t merely a linear translation from player projections. This is a topic that is long enough for its own article—and a subject I will be tackling next week. But for most players, my bid isn’t sitting at the full dollar value of the player’s projection. As a result, a $3 shift in value due to OBP typically isn’t going to result in a $3 shift in an overall bid limit.

On-base percentage is somewhat more stable than batting average. But because it's tied to batting average and batted balls in play, there is still a fair amount of variability in the category that I will not pay for. Shaving 10 hits off of a hitter with 600 plate appearances loses him about three dollars in both BA and OBP. Even if walk rates are more constant than hit rates, hits are still a vital component in OBP valuation. I am reluctant to tinker with values for hitters who aren’t consistently worth two dollars more or less with OBP than they are with batting average.

You don’t want to dump OBP any more than you want to dump BA. But qualitative categories are prone to greater fluctuations from season to season. Because of this, you don’t want to simply take last year’s numbers and apply them to this year’s valuations.

Risers/Fallers
Below are this week’s significant risers/fallers in my bid limits:

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<< Previous Article
Fantasy Article TTO Scoresheet Podcast... (03/14)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Auction Values... (03/07)
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Fantasy Auction Values... (03/21)
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