CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Premium and Super Premium Subscribers Get a 20% Discount at MLB.tv!

<< Previous Article
Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avo... (03/07)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Freestyle: Pro... (03/06)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Adj... (03/10)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Minor League Update: S... (03/07)

March 7, 2014

Fantasy Freestyle

Projecting the Top 15

by Paul Sporer and BP Fantasy Staff


We know from Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster that since 2004, there is a 36 percent success rate in the ADP projecting the top 15. The most in any one year is seven of 15; the least is four. With that in mind, I challenged the fantasy team to try to guess the top 15. In addition to their stab at the top 15, I had them give their answers on the following:

  • Player you just couldn't bring yourself to list but think has a real shot at top 15 (RS)
  • Player in the NFBC ADP top five right now mostly likely to miss the top 15 altogether (M5)
  • Prospect you think could reasonably make it (PR)
  • Crustiest vet (say 34 or older and not in top four rounds of NFBC ADP) you think could reasonably make it (CV)
  • Someone after the fifth round (pick 76 and on since NFBC is 15 teams) you think could reasonably make it (76)
  • Someone after the 10th round (pick 151 and on) you think could reasonably make it (151)
  • Someone who could go Josh Donaldson (pick 300 [he was 393 last year] or later who jumps into top 75) (300)

Here’s what we came up with (along with commentary when provided by the analysts)!

PAUL SPORER

  1. Trout
  2. Harper
  3. Cabrera
  4. Gomez
  5. Goldschmidt
  6. Kershaw
  7. McCutchen
  8. Encarnacion
  9. Darvish
  10. Ramirez
  11. Votto
  12. Cespedes
  13. Rios
  14. Verlander
  15. Desmond

There is nothing too crazy in my top 15, although I was just one of two people to list more than two starting pitchers (Doug’s four were the most). Cespedes could be this year’s Chris Davis (whom I left off of my top 15 entirely thanks to a concern about his batting average given his 30 percent strikeout rate). Gomez was only listed in three of the eight top 15s despite a top 10 finish last year—I’m a believer. He was great last year and could be even better in 2014 with a potential 30 HR/50 SB season.

RS-Leonys Martin – The power would have to come quickly, but he put up a $23 season with a sub-.700 OPS last year; even modest improvements could yield a massive season, but I chickened out in favor of Desmond.

M5-Andrew McCutchen – This would come to pass via a batting average dip and a DL stint caused by his all-out efforts in center. I honestly really like the top five so it was hard to come up with someone I truly believed would fall out.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

21 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avo... (03/07)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Freestyle: Pro... (03/06)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Adj... (03/10)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Minor League Update: S... (03/07)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Wednesday, Aug...
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Week 21
Premium Article What You Need to Know: August 21, 2014
Pebble Hunting: You Lie!
Eyewitness Accounts: August 21, 2014
Premium Article Skewed Left: Saber Seminar One Year From Now
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Information, Humans, and ...

MORE FROM MARCH 7, 2014
Premium Article Raising Aces: Over the Radar 2.0
Premium Article Minor League Update: Spring Training Games o...
Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avoid: Relief Pitchers
Fantasy Article Graphical Fantasy Rankings: Relief Pitchers
Fantasy Article Fantasy Auction Values: Second Edition
Fantasy Article TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Relief Pitchers
The BP Wayback Machine: Inside Tommy John Su...

MORE BY PAUL SPORER
2014-03-25 - Fantasy Article Daily League Strategy: Introduction
2014-03-13 - Fantasy Article Sporer Report: My Tout Wars Team, Part One
2014-03-13 - TINSTAAPP: TINSTAAP Episode 19: Prospects, P...
2014-03-07 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Projecting the Top 15
2014-03-04 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Tier Rankings: Relief Pitchers
2014-02-28 - TINSTAAPP: TINSTAAP Episode 18: Starting Pit...
2014-02-27 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Starting Pit...
More...

MORE FANTASY FREESTYLE
2014-03-13 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Raise Decisions and the F...
2014-03-11 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Fantasy Platoon Options
2014-03-10 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Adjusting Bid Limits for ...
2014-03-07 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Projecting the Top 15
2014-03-06 - Fantasy Freestyle: Prospect Theory on Draft ...
2014-02-27 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: The Rising Cost of Pitchi...
2014-02-17 - Fantasy Freestyle: BP's Mixed LABR Draft
More...