CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Fantasy Article Graphical Fantasy Rank... (03/07)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avo... (02/28)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avo... (01/09)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Pro... (03/07)

March 7, 2014

Fantasy Players to Avoid

Relief Pitchers

by BP Fantasy Staff


At long last, our journey has come to an end.

Over the past two months, we've worked tirelessly (read: written two blurbs a week) to bring you a player to target and to avoid for each fantasy position. We hope our collective experience has helped you recoup some value and avoid some mistakes in your drafts this year, and we've enjoyed the debates that many of the names we've listed have spurred.

With that in mind, it's appropriate that our final installment brings you pitchers who specialize—or are supposed to specialize, at least—in ending games. Symbolism is beautiful.

John Axford, Indians
Axford will strike out many batters and is decent enough to pile up saves, which are the two primary functions of any fantasy closer. That being said, he's earned an ERA in the mid-4.00s over his pat 135 innings with a matching FIP, and he posts poor WHIPs thanks to his high walk rates. Axford also gives up a good number of homers for a closer, and there's no reason to think his stuff is going to suddenly play up as he enters his age-31 season. Axford could very well hold on to Cleveland's closer role for a while and notch 20-plus saves with 60-70 strikeouts and a 4.00 ERA, but that's his upside, and it would barely make him a top-25 fantasy reliever. Factor in that the talented Cody Allen is waiting in the wings, and Axford doesn't figure to have a terribly long leash should he begin to falter. If he falls in drafts he's worth taking as your third reliever, but he should not be relied upon. —Ben Carsley

Neftali Feliz, Rangers
Aside from my stringent stance against investing any large amount into the closer position unless they’re the final piece of the puzzle, reasons not to like Feliz this year include: he might be currently injured, he might not get his velocity back, he might get reinjured, and he’s probably not as good as Joakim Soria. Yes, sure, Feliz was one of the better relievers in baseball when he was healthy, effortlessly touching the upper 90s and blowing away hitters with relative ease.

He is coming off two abbreviated seasons though, and while he’s working himself back into shape, reports have him in the lower 90s, which will likely affect his ability to, well, blow hitters away. That doesn’t mean he can’t be an effective pitcher, as plenty of guys (including the recently departed Joe Nathan) have had to learn to pitch without their best velocity. It does mean that 2014 might be a learning experience though, and I would rather not pay for the adjustment. Soria was impressive in his own abbreviated season last year, has closing experience and there’s a good chance if he gets the job he might never relinquish it. All that said, Feliz might earn and hold the closer role all season. I’d just rather not pay for the risk that he won’t. —Craig Goldstein

Ernesto Frieri, Angels
Frieri had a wild ride last season, when he briefly lost the closer job with a poor July before rebounding with a solid August and a strong September. Let's look at the sum of his season: a 33 percent strikeout rate paired with a 10 percent walk rate to produce mixed results. Sure, that strikeout potential is sexy, but he has a WHIP in the 1.24 range. That's a lot of base runners for a closer. He gets helped by his home park, but relievers like him tend to be volatile season-to-season. Maybe he's fine this year, but I'm okay with letting someone else find out. —Mauricio Rubio

Craig Kimbrel, Braves
This is all about opportunity cost. I think prosciutto di Parma is the best prosciutto, but if blind folded, I can barely taste the difference between the Parma and prosciutto di Montreal. When the Parma costs $31.99 per pound and the Montreal costs $15.99 per pound, I am going to be feasting on the latter. More importantly, that extra $8 per half-pound I am pocketing can go toward a more aged cheese and a fancier olive mix. Similarly, I am going to let someone else pay the premium for Kimbrel and his declining swinging strike rate, especially when there is not much separating him from Chapman, Jansen, Rosenthal, and Holland, the prosciutto de Montreal’s of the closer world. Taken a step further, even the summer sausages of the closer world will get you saves and they are a heck of a lot cheaper on draft/auction day. —Jeffrey Quinton

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

9 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

DanDaMan

Great series. Thanks guys.

Mar 07, 2014 04:10 AM
rating: 2
 
huztlers

The pre-season Indians closer situation is "one to avoid" every year. However, it never ends up that way. Never. Not to say that it won't this year. Chris Perez is far better than Axford, but there is always some unproven closer in the wings in Cleveland which is really more a of a reflection of the Indians philosophy. They are good at developing relievers, which really does not translate into closers.

Mar 07, 2014 10:51 AM
rating: 0
 
hitdogman123

All reports read that Papelbon doesn't last the season, If so, who becomes the heir apparent?

Mar 08, 2014 00:12 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

I would be surprised if Papelbon doesn't last the season but I do like Ken Giles as a long term replacement

Mar 08, 2014 12:02 PM
 
deejaysurreal

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/sports/phillies/Some-pop-for-Jonathan-Papelbons-fastball.html

In response to Sporer in the article the velocity drop was said to be because of the hip injury. I'm not saying Papelbon will keep his job all year either. But it's a step in the right direction for him.

Mar 09, 2014 09:08 AM
rating: 0
 
Seb1975

The most I ever pay for prosciutto di Parma is $20 a pound.

Mar 09, 2014 10:41 AM
rating: 1
 
AciDjAzz

Brett I do agree with you the innings by Koji Uehara are concerning, but honestly 88 innings from Koji isn't equal to 88 innings from a normal reliever/closer. He is super efficient with his pitches, hardly ever eclipsing 15 per inning ( I don't have the exact stats I'm just going off memory). And like you say, 54 innings with 1 run, 2 walks, and 19 hits aren't the most "high intensity" outings if you really look at it. Not sure if you thought about that but it'd be interesting to hear what you think! Btw love both the new BP podcasts and the fantasy staff here at BP is top notch. Really value your guys work very highly and it's helped a lot with this years prep!

Mar 09, 2014 12:52 PM
rating: -1
 
dscala

In a sim league, can freeze 7.
Deciding on last 2.
Would you choose LuCroy, Rosenthal, or Donaldson?
Thanks.

Mar 18, 2014 09:44 AM
rating: 0
 
MPC203

Feliz went early in my dynasty/FA draft last week. I liked what Craig was selling here and waited until after the draft to pick up Soria yesterday at the price of putting Brandon Beachy on the DL. I'll take that value all day. Thanks.

Mar 22, 2014 12:10 PM
rating: 0
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Fantasy Article Graphical Fantasy Rank... (03/07)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avo... (02/28)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avo... (01/09)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Pro... (03/07)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Fantasy Article Expert League Auction Recap: CBS AL-Only
Fantasy Article State of the Position: Relief Pitcher
Fantasy Article The Quinton: Market Corrections and Underval...
The Week in Quotes: February 23-March 1, 201...
Premium Article Rumor Roundup: You Can't Predict Padres
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: It's the Latest Johan ...
Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Target: Relief Pitchers

MORE FROM MARCH 7, 2014
Premium Article Raising Aces: Over the Radar 2.0
Premium Article Minor League Update: Spring Training Games o...
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Projecting the Top 15
Fantasy Article Graphical Fantasy Rankings: Relief Pitchers
Fantasy Article Fantasy Auction Values: Second Edition
Fantasy Article TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Relief Pitchers
The BP Wayback Machine: Inside Tommy John Su...

MORE BY BP FANTASY STAFF
2014-03-18 - Fantasy Article The Darkhorses: Home Runs
2014-03-17 - The Darkhorses: Batting Average
2014-03-07 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Projecting the Top 15
2014-03-07 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avoid: Relief Pitchers
2014-03-03 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Target: Relief Pitchers
2014-02-28 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avoid: Starting Pitchers
2014-02-24 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Target: Starting Pitchers
More...

MORE FANTASY PLAYERS TO AVOID
2015-01-23 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avoid: Second Basemen
2015-01-16 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avoid: First Base
2015-01-09 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avoid: Catchers
2014-03-07 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avoid: Relief Pitchers
2014-02-28 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avoid: Starting Pitchers
2014-02-21 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avoid: Outfielders
2014-02-14 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avoid: Third Basemen
More...