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March 1, 2014

TINO (There Is No Offseason)

Ep. 8: Maybe He's Not So Bad

by Bret Sayre, Ben Carsley, Craig Goldstein and Mauricio Rubio

The second of the deluge of new podcasts here at Baseball Prospectus Fantasy, There is No Off-Season is quite different than its sister podcast, Flags Fly Forever. In this space, we will discuss all things dynasty and long-term keeper related, and nothing but. We will focus on both the major and minor league sides of things, but all within the spectrum of long-term value. You'll learn a lot, at least when we're not spouting off inside jokes and berating Craig--and even maybe then too. Oh, and remember to rate and review us on iTunes.

This week's topics:

Hello! (0:00-2:10)
Listener E-mails! Prospects, Pitchers And Lefties: (2:11-32:53)
Starting Pitchers, Rankings list sans Bret (32:54-1:02:49)
Injuries make the heart grow colder (1:02:50-1:11:26)
There Is No Ending! (1:11:27-1:14:25)

And everything you need to listen and enjoy is below this line that I'm typing right now:

Download Here (1:14:25)
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Email Us TINOpodcast@gmail.com
Sponsor Us

Bret Sayre is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Bret's other articles. You can contact Bret by clicking here
Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here
Craig Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Craig's other articles. You can contact Craig by clicking here
Mauricio Rubio is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Mauricio's other articles. You can contact Mauricio by clicking here

3 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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oloughla

Craig mentioned that Sabathia's rates last year were the same as they were in 2010. That's not entirely true if you look at K%, which is a better statistic than K/9 (per batter metric > per inning metric). His K% last year was the worst of his career by a decent margin. He also outperformed his FIP and his xFIP by a significant margin in 2010, which isn't something he's done consistently over his career, so I'm not sure you can count on it happening again.

I'd expect ~ a 3.90 ERA, but that velocity drop is fairly alarming, and I'd prefer to let someone else take the plunge if I can help it.

Mar 03, 2014 05:23 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

Yes, K% is better, but I thought it was an interesting discussion point using those stats, which is why I brought it up. I wanted to get the response that I did from Mau and Ben, which is "even though the stats say that, it doesn't tell the whole story". I'm not expecting anything big from Sabathia either, but I think I said something in the 3.75 range while you're saying the 3.90 range, which really isn't all that different.

Agreed that K% is more useful though.

Mar 03, 2014 06:09 AM
 
oloughla

I think Roy Halladay offers a cautionary tale on CC. The same warning signs starting to crop up (extremely high usage for years coupled with age and steep velocity loss/K% drop).

Mar 03, 2014 05:31 AM
rating: 0
 
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<< Previous Article
Premium Article Top Tools: Best Outfie... (02/28)
<< Previous Column
TINO (There Is No Offs... (02/23)
Next Column >>
TINO (There Is No Offs... (03/07)
Next Article >>
LABR Recap (03/03)

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