February 26, 2014
Fantasy Auction Values
Welcome to the first installment of Baseball Prospectus’ 2014 bid prices for “standard” Rotisserie-style formats.
In the tables below, you will find my recommended bid limits for AL-only, NL-only, and mixed leagues. For all three formats, the presumed settings are 12 teams, $260 budgets, 14 hitters, and nine pitchers. The bids are not predictions of what these players will do, but rather suggested prices. While most of what I expect these players to do is based on projected statistics and values, other factors play a role in the bid prices. These factors include:
These bids should serve as a starting point for your own auction preferences. If you think $27 for Prince Fielder is too timid, then by all means push his price up to your preferred ceiling. Just make sure to take money off of another player or group of players so that your aggregate bids add up to $3,120.
I’ll be tweaking these bids every Friday in this space as we get closer to Opening Day. For the majority of players on these lists, the prices you see are the prices I’m sticking with until Auction Day.
The idea behind bid limits is to set a price that is reasonable without being unrealistic in either direction. I’m down on Yasiel Puig this year, but if I see enough evidence that his going price is sitting in the low $30s, I’ll move my bid up modestly. I probably won’t get him in any of my leagues anyway, but I want my bids to have some semblance of reality. It is OK to use bids to show your affinity or dislike for a player, but you don’t want to be in a room of your own, and fool yourself into thinking that you’re buying a juggernaut, when in reality you’re overestimating everyone on your squad.
Below are some commonly asked questions from last year about these bid prices.
Why are these bids different from PECOTA and Baseball Prospectus’ PFM?
I do a fantasy draft, not an auction. Can I use these bids for my draft?
Why is Mike Trout’ s bid higher in a mixed league than in AL-only?
Many systems significantly reward the superstars. I did this last year, but have decided to scale back to try and more accurately reflect real world auction conditions. It might be a good idea to spend $50 or more on Trout or Cabrera, but if your league is more conservative than that, it isn’t useful to have a bid limit on these players that doesn’t accurately reflect your league’s market.
I think your price on Will Venable in NL-only is ridiculous. Can I change his bid?
If you are a beginner to auction formats—or if you simply don’t have the time to prepare for your auction and use these lists as a crutch—I’m confident that you can simply bring these lists to your auction and dominate. However, it will serve you better if you take the time to adjust the bids specifically for your league’s conditions. Your league might insist on paying $20-plus for every closer on the board. If this is the case, adjust your bids accordingly. Just make sure to take money off of some other pitchers or hitters so that the dollar values add up to $3,120 for a 12-team league.
I play in a 6x6 league that uses holds and OPS in addition to the standard 5x5 categories. Will you be providing bids for other formats?
NOTE: While players like Kendrys Morales are included in the mixed bid file, they are not included in the NL or AL-only files. Morales, Drew, and Santana will be added to the appropriate league pool once if/when they sign a contract.