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February 26, 2014

Fantasy Auction Values

First Edition

by Mike Gianella


Welcome to the first installment of Baseball Prospectus’ 2014 bid prices for “standard” Rotisserie-style formats.

In the tables below, you will find my recommended bid limits for AL-only, NL-only, and mixed leagues. For all three formats, the presumed settings are 12 teams, $260 budgets, 14 hitters, and nine pitchers. The bids are not predictions of what these players will do, but rather suggested prices. While most of what I expect these players to do is based on projected statistics and values, other factors play a role in the bid prices. These factors include:

  • Positional scarcity — Adding a dollar or two for some catchers and middle infielder.
  • Proven stars — Adding a dollar or two for reliability. Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera are bumped up slightly, because they provide an elite level of performance.
  • Category bias — Cheating closers and speed guys who do nothing but add to one category.
  • Rookies — Hedging your bets with rookies. Too many owners have been caught spending $20+ on a rookie because "that's what the projection said.”
  • Part-timer bias — Not paying full price for someone whose real-life role is limited. A part-timer could very well earn $10-15 in an only format, but even a small slump for a player with 150-200 plate appearances can have a severe impact on his value.

These bids should serve as a starting point for your own auction preferences. If you think $27 for Prince Fielder is too timid, then by all means push his price up to your preferred ceiling. Just make sure to take money off of another player or group of players so that your aggregate bids add up to $3,120.

I’ll be tweaking these bids every Friday in this space as we get closer to Opening Day. For the majority of players on these lists, the prices you see are the prices I’m sticking with until Auction Day.

The idea behind bid limits is to set a price that is reasonable without being unrealistic in either direction. I’m down on Yasiel Puig this year, but if I see enough evidence that his going price is sitting in the low $30s, I’ll move my bid up modestly. I probably won’t get him in any of my leagues anyway, but I want my bids to have some semblance of reality. It is OK to use bids to show your affinity or dislike for a player, but you don’t want to be in a room of your own, and fool yourself into thinking that you’re buying a juggernaut, when in reality you’re overestimating everyone on your squad.

Below are some commonly asked questions from last year about these bid prices.

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Related Content:  Fantasy,  Auctions,  Rotisserie,  5x5

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<< Previous Article
Premium Article Prospects Will Break Y... (02/25)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Auction Values... (03/26)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Auction Values... (03/07)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Get to Know: Starting ... (02/26)

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