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February 21, 2014

TTO Scoresheet Podcast

Outfielders

by Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

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It is outfield week here at BP, so we are chiming in with a look at the position from a Scoresheet perspective. In this article you’ll find our rankings along with thoughts on strategy for the position and deeper dives into specific players. Don’t miss the podcast for more thoughts on the position. And, as always, feel free to contact us via email, Twitter, or comments on this article for any questions you might have.

Here are our rankings:

KEEPERS

Rank

AGE

TEAM

Players

1

22

ANA

Mike Trout

2

27

PIT

Andrew McCutchen

3

30

MIL

Ryan Braun

4

24

MIA

Giancarlo Stanton

5

28

COL

Carlos Gonzalez

6

21

WAS

Bryce Harper

7

23

LAN

Yasiel Puig

8

24

ATL

Jason Heyward

9

33

TOR

Jose Bautista

10

31

TEX

Shin-Soo Choo

11

26

ATL

Justin Upton

12

28

BAL

Adam Jones

13

20

Min

Byron Buxton

14

23

TBA

Wil Myers

15

34

SLN

Matt Holliday

16

29

LAN

Matt Kemp

17

30

NYA

Jacoby Ellsbury

18

29

SLN

Allen Craig

19

22

SLN

Oscar Taveras

20

27

CIN

Jay Bruce

21

30

KCA

Alex Gordon

22

27

DET

Austin Jackson

23

24

Hou

George Springer

24

35

COL

Michael Cuddyer

25

28

MIL

Carlos Gomez

26

28

OAK

Yoenis Cespedes

27

35

WAS

Jayson Werth

28

33

CLE

Nick Swisher

29

32

LAN

Andre Ethier

30

37

NYA

Carlos Beltran

31

24

BOS

Jackie Bradley

32

28

HOU

Dexter Fowler

33

31

SFN

Hunter Pence

34

33

BOS

Shane Victorino

35

26

PHI

Domonic Brown

36

25

CHA

Adam Eaton

37

22

MIA

Christian Yelich

38

25

PIT

Starling Marte

39

27

ARI

Gerardo Parra

40

31

SDN

Carlos Quentin

41

26

ANA

Kole Calhoun

42

27

TOR

Colby Rasmus

43

33

TBA

Ben Zobrist

44

23

MIN

Oswaldo Arcia

45

25

COL

Corey Dickerson

46

33

ANA

Josh Hamilton

47

28

ARI

Mark Trumbo

48

34

OAK

Coco Crisp

49

31

BOS

Daniel Nava

50

26

TEX

Leonys Martin

51

22

Pit

Gregory Polanco

52

30

WAS

Denard Span

53

29

TBA

Matt Joyce

54

26

Mil

Khris Davis

55

32

SFN

Angel Pagan

56

33

NYN

Curtis Granderson

57

27

TBA

Desmond Jennings

58

32

KCA

Norichika Aoki

59

30

ARI

Martin Prado

CUT BUBBLE

Rank

AGE

TEAM

Players

60

30

NYA

Brett Gardner

61

33

TEX

Alex Rios

62

38

DET

Torii Hunter

63

33

Nelson Cruz

64

35

MIN

Josh Willingham

65

22

DET

Nick Castellanos

66

29

TOR

Melky Cabrera

67

31

CLE

Michael Bourn

68

27

SLN

Peter Bourjos

69

30

OAK

Brandon Moss

70

28

MIN

Alex Presley

71

31

SDN

Will Venable

72

27

HOU

Chris Carter

73

23

CHA

Avisail Garcia

74

30

BAL

Nick Markakis

75

27

CLE

Michael Brantley

76

20

ChN

Albert Almora

77

25

CHA

Dayan Viciedo

78

22

ChN

Jorge Soler

79

27

ATL

Evan Gattis

80

28

KCA

Lorenzo Cain

81

27

SDN

Cameron Maybin

82

32

LAN

Carl Crawford

83

32

CLE

David Murphy

84

23

MIA

Marcell Ozuna

85

29

SLN

Jon Jay

86

19

Cle

Clint Frazier

87

32

SFN

Michael Morse

88

21

Hou

Domingo Santana

89

26

PHI

Ben Revere

90

24

TEX

Michael Choice

REDRAFT FOR VALUE/DEEP LEAGUE

Rank

AGE

TEAM

Players

91

30

CHN

Nate Schierholtz

92

26

ARI

A.J. Pollock

93

38

NYA

Alfonso Soriano

94

34

TBA

David DeJesus

95

29

ATL

B.J. Upton

96

28

DET

Andy Dirks

97

28

NYN

Lucas Duda

98

36

PHI

Marlon Byrd

99

21

LAD

Joc Pederson

100

26

SEA

Dustin Ackley

101

20

Cin

Jesse Winker

102

23

StL

Stephen Piscotty

103

25

PIT

Jose Tabata

104

27

OAK

Josh Reddick

105

27

PHI

Darin Ruf

106

25

PIT

Andrew Lambo

107

18

Pit

Austin Meadows

108

30

NYN

Chris Young

109

27

Bal

Henry Urrutia

110

27

SEA

Michael Saunders

111

35

CIN

Ryan Ludwick

112

21

Cin

Phillip Ervin

113

33

BOS

Jonny Gomes

114

29

CHN

Ryan Sweeney

115

27

COL

Charlie Blackmon

116

33

ARI

Cody Ross

117

32

CHN

Justin Ruggiano

118

20

Col

David Dahl

119

30

OAK

Craig Gentry

120

30

CHA

Alejandro De Aza

121

30

HOU

Jesus Guzman

122

20

Col

Raimel Tapia

123

29

COL

Drew Stubbs

124

31

SDN

Seth Smith

125

23

CIN

Billy Hamilton

126

24

HOU

L.J. Hoes

127

21

Pit

Josh Bell

128

23

Was

Brian Goodwin

129

23

MIA

Jake Marisnick

130

25

NYN

Juan Lagares

131

20

Tex

Nick Williams

132

42

ANA

Raul Ibanez

133

24

CHN

Junior Lake

134

24

HOU

Robbie Grossman

135

22

NYA

Mason Williams

136

33

CLE

Ryan Raburn

137

28

BOS

Mike Carp

138

24

Col

Kyle Parker

139

28

COL

Brandon Barnes

140

22

LAA

Randal Grichuk

141

23

NYA

Tyler Austin

142

20

KC

Jorge Bonifacio

143

25

Mil

Caleb Gindl

144

23

NYN

Cesar Puello

145

29

CIN

Chris Heisey

146

24

STL

James Ramsey

147

27

LAN

Scott Van Slyke

148

27

ANA

J.B. Shuck

149

28

BAL

David Lough

150

31

BAL

Steve Pearce

151

26

PIT

Travis Snider

152

33

SDN

Chris Denorfia

153

22

Sea

Julio Morban

154

29

NYN

Andrew Brown

155

27

SDN

Kyle Blanks

156

27

WAS

Tyler Moore

157

33

MIA

Jeff Baker

158

30

SFN

Gregor Blanco

159

30

PHI

John Mayberry

160

29

Bal

Xavier Paul

161

31

Bos

Grady Sizemore

162

27

SFN

Roger Kieschnick

163

21

NYA

Aaron Judge

164

21

Min

Max Kepler

165

30

KCA

Justin Maxwell

166

26

StL

Mike O'Neill

167

26

MIN

Chris Parmelee

168

23

Cle

Tyler Naquin

169

32

WAS

Nate McLouth

170

20

TEX

Lewis Brinson

171

21

SD

Hunter Renfroe

172

32

NYA

Kelly Johnson

173

19

TEX

Ronald Guzman

174

23

MIL

Mitch Haniger

175

33

MIA

Garrett Jones

176

25

Tor

Kevin Pillar

177

23

NYA

Slade Heathcott

178

20

Tor

D.J. Davis

179

29

SLN

Shane Robinson

180

24

MIN

Aaron Hicks

181

22

SD

Rymer Liriano

182

27

MIL

Logan Schafer

183

21

NYN

Brandon Nimmo

184

25

SF

Gary Brown

185

24

DET

Tyler Collins

186

24

TBA

Mikie Mahtook

187

21

Cin

Yorman Rodriguez

188

26

HOU

Marc Krauss

189

30

BAL

Nolan Reimold

190

22

StL

Randall Grichuk

191

33

DET

Rajai Davis

192

33

ATL

Ryan Doumit

193

23

SF

Mac Williamson

194

27

ATL

Jordan Schafer

195

34

CIN

Skip Schumaker

196

26

MIN

Chris Herrmann

197

19

Oak

Billy McKinney

198

29

TBA

Sean Rodriguez

199

28

TBA

Brandon Guyer

200

40

NYA

Ichiro Suzuki

201

29

KCA

Emilio Bonifacio

202

25

DET

Steve Lombardozzi

203

31

SEA

Franklin Gutierrez

204

25

TOR

Moises Sierra

205

24

Sea

Abraham Almonte

206

29

NYN

Eric Young

207

27

CHA

Jordan Danks

208

28

Bal

Delmon Young

209

30

MIA

Brian Bogusevic

210

23

TOR

Anthony Gose

211

34

DET

Don Kelly

212

34

WAS

Scott Hairston

213

25

SDN

Alexi Amarista

214

28

ChN

Chris Coghlan

215

28

ANA

Collin Cowgill

216

27

Ari

Matt Tuiasosopo

217

25

Atl

Joey Terdoslavich

218

28

ARI

Tony Campana

219

31

Min

Jason Kubel

220

26

NYN

Matt denDekker

221

25

COL

Charlie Culberson

222

29

KCA

Jarrod Dyson

223

24

TEX

Engel Beltre

224

30

Cle

Jeff Francoeur

225

28

Min

Darin Mastroianni

226

25

Cin

Donald Lutz

227

25

CHN

Brett Jackson

228

28

StL

Joey Butler

229

28

Oak

Michael Taylor

230

27

Tex

Alex Castellanos

231

29

LAD

Mike Baxter

232

26

Oak

Shane Peterson

233

24

NYA

Zoilo Almonte

234

25

Sea

Stefen Romero

235

26

Mia

Jordany Valdespin

236

28

Oak

Corey Brown

237

24

Pit

Jaff Decker

238

27

Sea

Carlos Peguero

239

25

Bos

Bryce Brentz

240

26

NYN

Kirk Nieuwenhuis

241

27

LAD

Nick Buss

242

27

Col

Kent Matthes

243

25

Ari

Alfredo Marte

244

23

Phi

Cesar Hernandez

245

30

Atl

Jose Constanza

246

25

Atl

Todd Cunningham

247

27

SF

Juan Perez

248

25

Mia

Jimmy Paredes

249

30

Phi

Clete Thomas

250

24

TB

Kevin Kiermaier

251

25

Phi

Tyson Gillies

252

27

Phi

Dave Sappelt

253

23

ChA

Trayce Thompson

254

23

SD

Reymond Fuentes

255

24

ChN

Matt Szczur

256

30

Det

Trevor Crowe

257

23

Was

Eury Perez

258

23

Mil

Mitch Haniger

259

25

Bal

Francisco Peguero

260

24

SD

Yeison Asencio

261

23

Det

Daniel Fields

262

25

Was

Jeff Kobernus

263

25

Cin

Ryan LaMarre

264

22

TB

Drew Vettleson

265

21

KC

Bubba Starling

266

22

Mil

Victor Roache

267

25

ChA

Jared Mitchell

268

20

Mil

Tyrone Taylor

269

22

StL

Rafael Ortega

270

23

Phi

Zach Collier

271

23

Was

Michael Taylor

272

22

Cin

Juan Duran

273

22

Det

Stephen Moya

274

20

ChA

Courtney Hawkins

275

19

Ari

Justin Williams

276

18

Phi

Carlos Tocci

277

19

Bal

Josh Hart

278

29

Sea

Cole Gillespie

279

29

Bal

Quintin Berry

280

33

Cle

Nyjer Morgan

281

24

Sea

Xavier Avery

282

23

Mil

Michael Ratterree

283

23

Atl

Kyle Wren

284

23

ChN

Jacob Hannemann

285

23

Phi

Aaron Altherr

286

23

Ari

Ender Inciarte

Because outfielders in Scoresheet are simmered together in a range factor gumbo, finding the right center fielder for your team can be tricky. If you're looking to make center field defense a strength, you have to make it a priority early in your keeper list or your draft, because even when compared to shortstops or second basemen, there aren't enough "true" center fielders to go around. This may put more emphasis on finding someone who can man the position than is worth the trouble. One possibility is to purposefully scale down your expectation in center, and work on finding defensive upgrades elsewhere on your roster. Drafting a Brendan Ryan-esque shortstop may allow you to better get away with playing corner OFs with strong defensive ratings such as Alex Gordon or Bryce Harper in center.

As part of our discussion this week, we got into some players who are somewhat controversial or at least whose value is especially debated going into 2014. Matt Kemp generated plenty of discussion because we are so divided internally on what to expect from him in the coming years and how to value him as a result. Injuries have plagued him in recent years, and he’s still working to recover from an ankle injury that has him yet to run in 2014, along with an offseason shoulder surgery. Perhaps as a result of his recent struggles and injuries, there is a wide variety in forecasts for his offensive performance—the range spans an OPS in the mid-.700s worth a win or two to an OPS in the mid-.800s worth a handful of wins. For a player that was basically replacement level last year, expectations run the gamut from something similar in 2014 to recapturing a majority of the performance and value that earned him a second place finish in the MVP award voting three years ago. Notably, PECOTA is amongst the highest on Kemp, in part because it has a longer memory than other projection systems, and his projected SS/SIM is fairly high as a result. Color us collectively skeptical that Kemp can attain top ten status amongst outfielders in 2014.

Another player that generated some discussion was Bryce Harper. In contrast to Kemp, the young phenom has been able to hold his value while battling injuries. Because of his ability to reach the majors at a very young age and perform admirably, he was widely considered to be one of the three most valuable players to own during the recent Mock Draft. Interestingly, projections for his performance in 2014 would have his composite value, using something like SS/SIM, falling outside the top 20 outfielders, let alone the top 20 players overall. Still, the three of us agree that Harper’s long term potential and his likelihood to top his projections are considerable, and warrant selecting him in the top handful of outfielders.

As with many players, whether you should keep or trade Adam Jones depends upon the perception of your league-mates. Our general perception, however, is that Jones may be overvalued by people who are used to reality, or even traditional fantasy leagues. While everyone senses that Jones never walks, the degree to which it cripples his offense may be understated. That said, in a sharp league, we recommend hanging on to him. Jones' unique durability and lack of a platoon split means that he almost never has to be replaced by a backup, perhaps freeing up an extra pick in your draft.

Since you generally need to draft 5-6 outfielders in your draft anyway, and since the Scoresheet replacement level at the position is higher than it is in the infield, your outfield is probably the place where you should look to build your bench and find platoons. It pays to look closely at Scoresheet's pre-printed platoon ratings for value. For instance, David DeJesus has the biggest platoon split in the game, and if he's platooned even more strictly in real life as well, then you can consider that an extra bonus to his offensive numbers. Just be sure to hide him against lefties. Raul Ibanez, David Murphy, and Michael Brantley are other players with severe splits who may make up the strong side of a post-draft platoon. In that case, be on the lookout for Justin Maxwell, Jonny Gomes, or Justin Ruggiano late. And we strongly recommend Jon Jay or Gerardo Parra if you'd rather build your platoon from your center field position, or Alex Presley as a bargain-basement option in AL-only leagues.

As mentioned, true center fielders are hard to come by this year. If you can’t get one of the top tier ones, though, you do have a few options. Austin Jackson is an interesting win-now type who you shouldn’t have to take super early in a redraft or startup league. And Adam Eaton poses some long term value. There’s a glut of terribly unsexy CFs with middling OBP and limited power, including Denard Span, Desmond Jennings, Ben Revere, Peter Bourjos, and Brett Gardner. These are all guys who have their uses, certainly moreso in Scoresheet than traditional fantasy leagues, but you’ll generally be happier if you don’t overpay to have any of them patrol center. If you can get them late, however, do it.

In the redraft portion of continuing leagues, Darin Ruf is a player to keep an eye on. He might be a little older than you’d expect, coming into his age-27 season after being stuck in an organization infatuated with memories of what Ryan Howard used to do. He’s on track for a part time role, but could earn enough to work well in a platoon for your Scoresheet squad. If the Phillies ever wise up and sit Howard against lefties and let Ruf be part of a real -ife platoon, his Scoresheet value would rise considerably on the back of more assured playing time and a bit better expected production to boot.

It seems like there are scads and scads of interesting outfielders. In the young slugger category, we are generally believers in Kole Calhoun, Corey Dickerson, and Khris Davis. Some interesting bounce back candidates are Michael Morse, Chris Young, and Michael Saunders, but be careful not to bet too much on the come there. And in the late rounds, Craig Gentry and Chris Denorfia could provide some value.

For new Scoresheet players, we have to sound a note of alarm for your favorite center field prospect. Yes, even you, Byron. Because outfielders are lumped together, all outfield prospects receive a universal 2.10 range rating until they hit the major leagues. Essentially, unless your centerfielder is also a superstar hitter, they may have a rough entry into the league. Your best hope, as with Jackie Bradley last year, is that they come up briefly the year before, retain their minor league eligibility, and play enough center field to become an asset at the position when they're up for real the year after. The downside is represented by a player such as Billy Hamilton, who as a marginal defensive center fielder is a nearly worthless curio in most leagues this year.

Who to look for, in that case? Assuming that the top prospects are protected in most leagues at this point, you may still be able to find value in the top 75-150 prospects in baseball. Domingo Santana, in particular, is a prospect who appears to be flying under the radar in an extremely deep Astros system. Santana has a lot to learn, but he's young and already near the majors, with a ton of opportunity in Houston. Stephen Piscotty, of the Cardinals, doesn't have the opportunity, but may also be an above average player at the corners soon, able to give you 250-300 solid at-bats a year until the Cardinals outfield machine clears a full-time job for him in Busch or elsewhere. And don't sleep on corner outfielders with strong bats and defensive questions: as that 2.10 range rating cuts both ways. Jesse Winker of the Reds, is a marginal defensive outfielder who will probably land more assuredly in Scoresheet than in a traditional fantasy format.

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7 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

jtwalsh

Guys,

Thanks again for the info. Anyplace to find the updated rankings by positions? This was posted a couple weeks ago, but since then you have published a couple more positions?

Thanks

Feb 22, 2014 07:54 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Murphy
BP staff

I just went through and made sure all the positions we've published should match between our finalized lists in the articles and the spreadsheet that we shared previously (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF):

TTO Scoresheet Rankings 2014

Feb 22, 2014 09:54 AM
 
John Carter

Hey, guys, thanks. I appreciate that ranking so many outfielders with such a slight difference in expected future Scoresheet value is a tough task and that just because a guy is 30 names higher, doesn't mean he is a heck of a lot better.

That said, I am curious about a couple of names - just in case you know something we don't know:

Why is Alejandro De Aza down there with the fourth outfielders and the lesser third of his platoon Dayan Viciedo listed in the cut-bubble above them?

Why are post season bench-ees Matt Joyce and David Nava still considered keepers, while Andy Dirks is not?

Also, why are Kelly Johnson, Steve Lombardozzi. and Ben Zobrist listed among the outfielders? Are they ranked here as if they aren't eligible at other positions and have separate rankings elsewhere?

Feb 24, 2014 15:42 PM
rating: -1
 
IanLefk
(85)

Oh, I'll at least weigh in. Our rankings are in now way infallible, but even after reading your comments, I'll at least stand by these specific rankings, because I was the one most down on each.

I think your supposition is correct. My read of the Sox is that they got completely frustrated by de Aza last year and Viciedo will have the bulk of the job. Things may be different in the Hahn era, but if I know the Sox, they're still great at getting unreasonably frustrated by perceived faults and "uncoachability." Could be wrong here, I'll be watching closely this spring.

As for Joyce and Nava vs. Dirks, that's a little more simple. We just flat think Joyce and Nava are better hitters, and the loss of playing time doesn't worry me much (You're not starting Joyce vs. lefties anyway). Dirks strikes me as a more limited player, and I'd say you can do better in standard leagues. Your mileage may vary on that one.

Finally, in terms of the "out-of-position" players, you have it almost right. We're ranking them as though they were playing outfield for you, and would be outfielders going forward, which is why their ranking might be lower here than at their primary position. We've gone over Kelly Johnson a lot, for example, (we're fans), but we'd rather play him at second or third.

Thanks for your close reading!

Feb 24, 2014 17:35 PM
rating: 0
 
alfresco

I would add Jesus Guzman to the bargain basement category.

Mar 17, 2014 15:00 PM
rating: 0
 
alfresco

Ooops. Just noticed Guzman on the "Redraft for Value" list. Please ignore my previous comment.

Mar 17, 2014 15:02 PM
rating: 0
 
TyWebb33

Based on platoon splits, do I consider sitting Shin-Soo Choo against LH pitchers in favor of someone like Rajai Davis?

Do you platoon De Aza vs. LF pitchers over Austin Jackson?

I guess I just didn't think I'd be sitting Choo ever...

Current Starting / Platoon Candidates are:
Braun
Choo
Jackson
De Aza
Davis

Thanks so much!

Mar 25, 2014 20:16 PM
rating: 0
 
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2014-02-21 - Fantasy Article TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Outfielders
2014-02-14 - Fantasy Article TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Third Basemen
2014-02-10 - Fantasy Article TTO Scoresheet Rankings
2014-02-07 - Fantasy Article TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Shortstops
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2014-03-14 - Fantasy Article TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Episode 9: SS/SIM
2014-03-07 - Fantasy Article TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Relief Pitchers
2014-02-28 - Fantasy Article TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Starting Pitchers
2014-02-21 - Fantasy Article TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Outfielders
2014-02-14 - Fantasy Article TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Third Basemen
2014-02-07 - Fantasy Article TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Shortstops
2014-01-31 - Fantasy Article TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Second Basemen
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